Brazilian Poor Demand.

[EduardoMorteo]

I understand that is pretty difficult run the game, using the real demand of each age. So I´m offering to AirwaySim staff my research about brazilian demand.
It is not real, because is impossible calculate the real demand, between 1940 and 2009, but you can use to make it near to reality.
I´m insisting about brazilian demand, because the present demand in this game is far far far away from the real demand.

Exemples:
-The route Rio de Janeiro - São Paulo (Santos Dumont / IATA: SDU / ICAO: SBRJ - Congonhas / IATA: CGH / ICAO: SBSP, respectively): More than 12.000 passengers flies this route, DAILY!
Look at this graphic: http://www.oag.com/oag/website/com/resources/image/468ebcb4b088d310/pr070906_2.jpg (TOP 10 Busiest Routes on SEP.2006. This number grew since 2006. Today we have more than 900 flight weekly.  Airwaysim: Only 160 passengers DAILY. Did you notice the difference?
This is the second most busiest route in the world. In 2010 probably will be the first most busiest route.

[CX717]

If you find that some route has too small passenger demand, in your mind, then please read this topic to let you know how it can be improved


First - how the system works

- The system calculates the pax demand based on airport size, and traffic distribution (intl/domestic etc), and uses some of the route data and info about country's other airpots also.

- This method provides reasonable results all over the world but it cannot be accurate for every route.

- That's why the calculation sequence backs up to a route-pair database that has airport to airport route-pair demand information. This database includes some 90 000 different route pairs so far. For example pretty much every US domestic route is there.

- Also the calculation can use a country relation database, where we can set (if no route-pair stats available) how traffic between two countries is. For example US-Cuba could be set to "0.1" while USA-UK could be "2.0". The number is the traffic ratio between all traffic of these two countries.


How to submit more data

- If you spot that a demand between two airports is "wrong" then you can submit some of this route-pair data to us which improved the situation.

- But keep in mind that the focus is not to duplicate the real world passenger routes completely here. Also keep in mind the game year. In 1998 for example the overall passenger travel has been way smaller than in 2008.

- See the top of the demand info page, there you see a small text "Souce". It's either Stats or AWS. If it's based "stats" then we have it, do not submit anything for that route-pair.

- If the current demand that you see is within +/-30% of what do you think it should be, then it is just fine. As the demand display what you are seeing is not 100% accurate either - what is shown to players is an estimate of the true demand..

- If it's more than that ~30% off, then you can submit data to us. Please follow these guidelines:

    - First preference is some REAL statistics from airport authorities, statistical bureaus, aviation administration etc. This overrides all others but is hard to find.

    - Another method is to "guesstimate" the passenger travel on the route. This is based on the number of monthly seats all airlines offer on the route together. Then we assume a 70-75% load factor, and also take into account the year effect (2008->2005 as all game pax stats are from 2006/2005), and we can get a reasonably close demand figure.

    - For example if airlines A and B fly the route, A with 250 seater plane and B with 300 seater plane. Each fly every day in a month. We would calculate as follows:   (250+300)*0.7*0.9  (where 0.7 is the load factor correction, and 0.9 is the pax amount correction from 2008 to 2005 levels to be the same as other stats). So result would be 346.5 pax per day on average and that's the number we want.

   - Please make sure you submit the data in the following, and ONLY in the following format!

Code Select Expand

depICAO-arrICAO: paxPerDay
depICAO-arrICAO: paxPerDay
depICAO-arrICAO: paxPerDay

   - So one item per line, airport icao and pax per day. Real example:

Code Select Expand

EFHK-EETN: 80.5
EFHK-ESSA: 555.1
and so on. Do not include the flights back from the airport, unless the demand is very different. Only one way.


- Send the data via forum PM to me - no other way.

- When submitting data make sure that you tell if it has been counted by you, or based on statistics. In all cases the source(s) must be mentioned.

- Any temporary changes in the 50 year history period like some economic recession affecting only one country or such cannot be modeled with the current system.


The future

In the future .. in the distant future .. the plan is to improve the demand calculation logic so that it does not look for airport to airport demand but rather city to city demand. For this we need a LOT of more information for all airports and cities around the world. For this model the demand will be more influenced what players do. But this is somewhere later on then.

---

And you can reply here to let others know that you've sent in some data.

[EduardoMorteo]

CX717, I did it once. But the demand still the same. Is impossible to grow in Brazil, when you have to share only 160 passengers between 3-4 Airlines, while we could share 6.000 passengers.

Greetings from Brazil!

[Jps]

Sami has to manually update the demand, so it may take some time (days, sometimes even weeks). Also, I'm not sure if it's even possible to change data like that when the game is already running, so even though the data is updated, it may not apply until the next new game...

[Sidereus]

Eduardo uses the example SBSP-SBRJ as example, a good example.

But it´s very important to note the problem is the same for ALL south-americans routes. The pax demand for SBSV-SBPA, two of five greatest cities in Brazil, is the ridiculous amount of 140 pax/day. From Rio to Brasília (brazilian´s capital and about 50 daily flights IRL), the game shows 280 pax/day.

For us, brazilians players, who decided to keep our companies in Brazilian cities, it´s annoying, boring and frustrating.

[jagalubnan]

When I was based in Brazil, I noticed this, too. However I just thought that it was normal, although I expected a lot more pax.

[EduardoMorteo]

Me and some brazilian players are planning a list of real demand, based on airport authorities, statistical bureaus, aviation administration. INFRAERO, Airlines and ANAC, respectively.

INFRAERO = Airport Infrastructure Enterprise.
ANAC = Nacional Civil Aviation Agency (Brazilian FAA).

[thedr2]

As a player in portugal (in game), I can also add that the demand from Portugal to Brazil is way below wha tit should be. Both TAP and TAM have several daily flights on numerous routes between the countries.

[Sidereus]

Me and some brazilian players are planning a list of real demand, based on airport authorities, statistical bureaus, aviation administration. INFRAERO, Airlines and ANAC, respectively.

INFRAERO = Airport Infrastructure Enterprise.
ANAC = Nacional Civil Aviation Agency (Brazilian FAA).

Ok, I can help you too, even with my very poor free time.

But it´s not a free game, and sometimes I think why I need to work for the developer.

[CX717]

you got credit back for your contribution.

[Sami]

But it´s not a free game, and sometimes I think why I need to work for the developer.

Hope that you don't seriously think that we would be able to collect all that data worldwide by ourselves?  And like CX mentioned the people who have contributed have been given free game time. When the games started we handed out some 7500 free credits to people ........

[EduardoMorteo]

Hope that you don't seriously think that we would be able to collect all that data worldwide by ourselves?  And like CX mentioned the people who have contributed have been given free game time. When the games started we handed out some 7500 free credits to people ........

Ok, I can help you too, even with my very poor free time.

But it´s not a free game, and sometimes I think why I need to work for the developer.

I got some free credits as Sami said. Sidereus, thanks for the suport, but avoid this speech of work for free. I think that our HELP to develop the game, "will be back to us" as a better game.

Greetings from Brazil!

[Sidereus]

Hope that you don't seriously think that we would be able to collect all that data worldwide by ourselves?  And like CX mentioned the people who have contributed have been given free game time. When the games started we handed out some 7500 free credits to people ........

So, my apologies. I didn´t heard/read about this free credits. Now I´ll work with more guts....

[EduardoMorteo]

Hello again!

I just finished the first part of my research. This part is about the domestic flights between Rio de Janeiro Internacional Airport (Tom Jobim Intl / IATA: GIG / ICAO: SBGL) and Salvador Intl(SBSV), Brasília Intl(SBBR), São Paulo-Congonhas(SBSP), São Paulo-Guarulhos Intl(SBGR), Vitória Airport(SBVT), Curitiba-Afonso Pena(SBCT), Recife Intl(SBRF), Porto Alegre-Salgado Filho(SBPA), Florianópolis-H.Luz Airport(SBFL), Fortaleza Intl(SBFZ), Goiania Airport(SBGO), Manaus-Eduardo Gomes Intl(SBEG), Belém Intl(SBBE), Belo Horizonte-Confins Intl(SBCF), Campinas Viracopos Intl(SBKP) and Foz do Iguaçu Intl(SBFI). And the second most popular route in world, Rio de Janeiro - Santos Dumont Airport (SDU-SBRJ) - São Paulo Congonhas Airport (CGH-SBSP).

I used the Load Factor of TAM Airlines, Gol Airlines, WebJet Airlines, Oceanair (Avianca Brazil), the four major Brazilian Airlines.
Fount of research: ANAC (Brazilian FAA), data from airlines, INFRAERO (Airport Authority).

I´ll pass to Sami all data, but I wanna share these numbers with you guys. I´ll use IATA codes to identify the airports.

SDU-CGH-SDU: 13754 PAX Daily

GIG-SSA-GIG: 2982 PAX Daily

GIG-BSB-GIG: 2802 PAX Daily

GIG-CGH-GIG: 2142 PAX Daily

GIG-GRU-GIG: 3118 PAX Daily

GIG-VIX-GIG: 1062 PAX Daily

GIG-MAO-GIG: 642 PAX Daily

GIG-GYN-GIG: 426 PAX Daily

GIG-BEL-GIG: 633 PAX Daily

GIG-CNF-GIG: 1850 PAX Daily

GIG-VCP(CPQ)-GIG: 1284 PAX Daily

GIG-IGU-GIG: 636 PAX Daily

GIG-CWB-GIG: 1608 PAX Daily

GIG-REC-GIG: 1710 PAX Daily

GIG-POA-GIG: 1888 PAX Daily

GIG-FLN-GIG: 1062 PAX Daily

GIG-FOR-GIG: 1278 PAX Daily

Next part is: Correction of international demand.

Part two: International routes in Rio de Janeiro International Airport (only non-stop):
Destinations:
Angola, Luanda (LAD) by TAAG Airlines
France, Paris Charles De Gaulle (CDG) by TAM Airlines and Air France
England, London Heatrow (LHR) by British Airways
Spain, Madrid Barajas (MAD) by Iberia Airlines
Portugal, Lisbon (LIS) by TAP Airlines
Portugal, Porto (OPO) by TAP Airlines
Argetina, Buenos Aires (EZE) by Varig Airlines, Gol Airlines, TAM Airlines, Aerolineas Argentinas
Chile, Santiago Del Chile (SCL) by Lan Airlines, TAM Airlines
United States of America, Miami (MIA) by American Airlines, TAM Airlines
United States of America, New York (JFK) by American Airlines, TAM Airlines
United States of America, Houston (IAH) by Continental Airlines
United States of America, Atlanta (ATL) by Delta Airlines
United States of America, Washington DC (IAD) by United Airlines
Peru, Lima (LIM) by TACA Airlines
Panama, Panama City (PTY) by Copa Airlines


Greetings from Brazil!

[carloscarlos]

whooo gd job lads...once a new game starts...if the data is updated...ill move to brazil...hehe...very gd job...nice figures, congrats


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[EduardoMorteo]

whooo gd job lads...once a new game starts...if the data is updated...ill move to brazil...hehe...very gd job...nice figures, congrats

Thanks.

[EduardoMorteo]

Hello again!

I got the part two "in my hands".
IATA codes only!

GIG-LAD-GIG: 230 Daily (TAAG Airlines operates 4X weekly, so a had to calculate 4 flights as being 7 flights.)
GIG-CDG-GIG: 1160 Daily
GIG-LHR-GIG: 330 Daily
GIG-MAD-GIG: 390 Daily
GIG-LIS-GIG: 346 Daily
GIG-OPO-GIG: 346 Daily
GIG-MIA-GIG: 626 Daily
GIG-JFK-GIG: 340 Daily
GIG-IAH-GIG: 300 Daily
GIG-ATL-GIG: 360 Daily
GIG-IAD-GIG: 320 Daily
GIG-LIM-GIG: 340 Daily
GIG-PTY-GIG: 200 Daily

I have to say that this one was difficult. I had to use the market demand (result of international LF in Brazil).
Source: ANAC (Brazilian FAA), Brazilian midia (aviation websites, magazines, news paper).

Third part: Correction of São Paulo domestic corretion (Congonhas Airport and Gov.Andre Franco Montoro/Guarulhos International Airport).

Greetings from Rio de Janeiro!

[juanchopancho]

Some work needs to be done with Argentina as well.  Many airports which in real life serve 100% domestic flights in this came are split 1/3 domestic, international & short international. It looks like the Brazilian airports in this game are setup a little better.

[EduardoMorteo]

It looks like the Brazilian airports in this game are setup a little better.

I just found a mistake related in the Florianopolis airport slots. The airport operates 24h/day, but in the game it only "works" 6 hours/day.