Demand Decreasing

[Tsuneyoshi]

Guys,
I had the following route: DXB - ATL.
The same, had 300+ demand. Recently it only has 80 demand, is that normal?
Something similar happened to DXB x KORD.

[Cornishman]

I'm glad it's not just me noticing these sorts of things.  I don't how many times just recently (past 3 or 4 months IRL that I have checked out a potential new route... looked at it, "yep !" That's got sufficient demand to put one of "those" planes onto it.  Next thing when you check back - "woah.... where did that demand go?... now seems around 10% to 20% less!"

Happening a bit too often if you ask me. But your example Tsuni seems really out-of-order 

[groundbum2]

somebody testing cbd-pax in stealth mode? 

[Continental Sky]

now seems around 10% to 20% less!"

It also happens to me, but I attributed those rather small fluctuations to "Estimation accuracy", shown on route planning page, which is usually 80-90% for me. If you refresh route planning page several times, you will get that difference almost each time.

Once I tested staff operations, I worked with all those "auxiliary" staff set to zero, which included "Route planning dept.", and this estimation accuracy dropped significantly, I didn't record the figure, but difference between refreshed demand figures was like double or triple.

[Cornishman]

An interesting test you did there Vuko...

Naturally I'm aware also that demand fluctuates and before I ever create a route I have for years in this game, known to first refresh my check on a route demand a good few times to try to find the high - v - the low demand. In my message above I wasn't neglecting this important fact.  What I think I've been noticing is situation such as - during initial 3 or 4 checks on a route demand, lets say I'm seeing average demand at 100pax per day. (some checks showed 110, some showed 90, etc.) but then after having placed the route, go back a few days later and we have figures like 80 to 90 as the fluctuation, never getting up to that initial ave. of around 100.  That is what I am pretty sure I've noticed a few times now.

Not complaining, not sure if there is a glitch and not saying there must be some problem .... just observing here.  But what Tsuni mentioned.... that's a whopping difference!

[yevgeniy]

Same thing happened in Age of Flight when HND switched to domestic and NRT opened.
Demand from/to SVO dropped in half.

[cannimed]

Same thing happened in Age of Flight when HND switched to domestic and NRT opened.
Demand from/to SVO dropped in half.

Not just to SVO but demand for cargo stayed in HND plus the same amount was added to NRT.

[RALLX]

Not just to SVO but demand for cargo stayed in HND plus the same amount was added to NRT.

I think you are looking at potential demand. But the actual demand would be shared by both airports.

[cannimed]

I think you are looking at potential demand. But the actual demand would be shared by both airports.

Nope, I know the difference and am referring to the total actual demand between both tokyo airports. That being said actual demand dropped somewhat over time but is still quite a bit more between the two than before there were two.

[Sami]

The airport transfers and new airport openings, somewhere in the world, do sometimes cause this. But it has been a tricky issue to solve, and I have not put efforts into this since it's a rather minor annoyance in the old outgoing model. And anyways one cannot always automatically think that demand is always steady or increasing.

[Tsuneyoshi]

An interesting test you did there Vuko...

Naturally I'm aware also that demand fluctuates and before I ever create a route I have for years in this game, known to first refresh my check on a route demand a good few times to try to find the high - v - the low demand. In my message above I wasn't neglecting this important fact.  What I think I've been noticing is situation such as - during initial 3 or 4 checks on a route demand, lets say I'm seeing average demand at 100pax per day. (some checks showed 110, some showed 90, etc.) but then after having placed the route, go back a few days later and we have figures like 80 to 90 as the fluctuation, never getting up to that initial ave. of around 100.  That is what I am pretty sure I've noticed a few times now.

Not complaining, not sure if there is a glitch and not saying there must be some problem .... just observing here.  But what Tsuni mentioned.... that's a whopping difference!

Exactly. I know we got an estimated demand, but it's comparison is very close as you said. In my case, I was flying to Atlanta with 2 B707s to fill a route with 300+ demand, and now, it's around 80... Never seen this before.

I'm glad it's not just me noticing these sorts of things.  I don't how many times just recently (past 3 or 4 months IRL that I have checked out a potential new route... looked at it, "yep !" That's got sufficient demand to put one of "those" planes onto it.  Next thing when you check back - "woah.... where did that demand go?... now seems around 10% to 20% less!"

Happening a bit too often if you ask me. But your example Tsuni seems really out-of-order 

Exactly!! Noticed this "problem" in 2 routes. KATL and KORD. The decreasing have been so "strong", that I almost need to close the route.

The airport transfers and new airport openings, somewhere in the world, do sometimes cause this. But it has been a tricky issue to solve, and I have not put efforts into this since it's a rather minor annoyance in the old outgoing model. And anyways one cannot always automatically think that demand is always steady or increasing.

Hope you get some time to take a look at it.

*Give a chance to B747-400M too 

[Cornishman]

So what's with this all of a sudden?

Please check these routes and reduce their seat capacity so that they are no longer oversupplied by your airline. If changes are not made within 48 hours the system will deactivate these routes.

Routes in violation of the game rules:
» RB1959, OTP - CIA
» RB1959, OTP - CIA

Please start by checking the actual passenger demand of the route using the globe icon (next to each route). After that please adjust the offered seat capacity by re-scheduling the routes to another time/day, switching to different aircraft or using the seat blocking function.

I've set that route up maybe 30 or more years ago. Demand was sufficient for me to warrant putting my larger 737-800 on the route about 8 years ago - I could have opted for 100-seat F.100s or even 70-seat F.70s. Now in 2012 Romania announces the closure of their other smaller airport (Aurel Vlaicu) and suddenly demand at the main remaing airport drops off - not understanding this at all

[Wreck]

This appears to be happening with Cargo too, where Potential demand (not actual) has dropped from 20000Kg to 4000Kg in less than a year, no overlapping airports of any consequence.

[Cornishman]

This appears to be happening with Cargo too, where Potential demand (not actual) has dropped from 20000Kg to 4000Kg in less than a year, no overlapping airports of any consequence.

Hello Chris - how're you keeping old pal?  Yes it definitely a thing going on that I can't say I ever noticed happening to such an extent before. Really annoying in too many cases and there doesn't seem to be any logic to the routes that seem to suffer these dramatic drops all of a sudden.
Jack