AirwaySim
Online Airline Management Simulation
Login
Username
Password
 
or login using:
 
My Account
Username:
E-mail:
Edit account
» Achievements
» Logout
Game Credits
Credit balance: 0 Cr
Buy credits
» Credit history
» Credits FAQ

Author Topic: Tokyo 1978 - managing the move from HND to NRT  (Read 746 times)

Offline knobbygb

  • Members
  • Posts: 885
Tokyo 1978 - managing the move from HND to NRT
« on: November 27, 2019, 06:14:50 AM »
Hi. I'm aware that this subject has been discussed in the past although I can't find a specific topic and nothing up-to-date. With recent changes to game mechanics (slot quota systems, CBD for cargo), I'd appreciate some help from anyone who's been through this recently.

As far as I understand, in May 1978, unless I request otherwise, my airline at HND will be moved to NRT. Fair enough, I get that.  I just can't decide if it would be better to move and create a base back at HND for domestic/short haul or to stay at HND and create a base at NRT.

The main issues are:

I think this is unique in that it's the only 'forced move' from an airport with 24hr opening to one with a curfew.  What will happen to my routes that currently arrive or depart during the new curfew? I'm guessing they will just vanish.  Since all my long-haul is 7-day scheduled I am basically going to have to re-create ALL my long-haul routes anyway to plug all those holes. This makes me think I might be better staying at HND and adding a NRT base - less work and cost overall (see domestic and cargo below). But if I do that I'll start all my long-haul routes with zero RI!

Short-haul/domestic.  I'll have to manually move these back to a base at HND of course.  I think I'll probably have to re-purchase all the slots (or will I??) but what about route image?  Will that remain?  Surely the system will 'remember' that the route has been flown recently. The hit on slot costs is going to be large, but the lost revenue if the routes start at zero RI will probably be even bigger. Although the majority of my routes (80%) are long-haul, they're mostly quite marginal (nearly all with a tech-stop) and I suspect (no way of really knowing) that a large proportion of actual profit (maybe 50%) comes from domestic.

Cargo.  This is a big unknown for me. I am guessing that the 'actual' demand will initially shift to NRT as that is where all the cargo historically went in 1978. With city based demand I should be able to pull that back to HND pretty quickly as this is the best place for cargo (better located for coverage, 24hr opening).  Is that correct?  Again, if I move,  I am going to have to re-create ALL my cargo routes at AND and pay for the slots again AND maybe lose RI.

So, what have people done in recent games?  What worked and what didn't?

Summary:

Move to NRT

+   Base in the 'correct' place (routes outside base make less profit (20%??) and aircraft are limited in number)
+   Get some 'free' slots at NRT which might be very limited initially due to quota system and airport not having already dynamically expanded.
+   Will benefit from immediate cargo 'actual' demand? Or not?
-    Have to recreate ALL my routes at both NRT and HND
-    Domestic/SH/cargo route image at 'new' HND base might drop to zero

Stay at HND

+   Don't have to re-create domestic/SH/cargo routes and won't lose RI or slots on those
-    Have to re-create ALL LH routes at NRT (but would have to anyway) and pay for all the slots
-    All LH routes would start with zero RI
-    Can I buy enough slots quickly enough at NRT with the quota system?
-    LH routes (most critical profit-wise and most in number overall) would be at a base rather than HQ
-    Will have to wait for 'actual' cargo demand to move back from NRT - does this even work properly?

What are your thoughts and RECENT experience of this please. I'm kinda relishing the challenge but, either way it will be a LOT of work and HUGE cost and I don't expect the airline to be profitable again for MANY months.  I'm almost tempted to just quit to be honest - the prospect of recreating EVERY SINGLE ROUTE is mind numbing.

Thanks.
« Last Edit: November 27, 2019, 06:22:32 AM by knobbygb »

Offline Tha_Ape

  • Members
  • Posts: 5596
Re: Tokyo 1978 - managing the move from HND to NRT
« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2019, 07:44:03 AM »
Won't advise you to do this or that, and anyway I never played in Japan.

However I can assure you that your LH routes with departures/arrivals during the curfew will be maintained. I remember a post from Sami about that. However each change you'll make will have to be within the curfew limits. As for a potential renewal using these otherwise "illegal" hours, I don't know.

As for cargo, the demand is initially duplicated, and then stabilizes (gets divided) depending on supply:
https://www.airwaysim.com/forum/index.php/topic,80549.msg475511.html#msg475511
Except if it changed with the latest fix, but I couldn't see the reason as these are 2 different things.

Offline schro

  • Members
  • Posts: 4561

The 3 people who like this post:
Re: Tokyo 1978 - managing the move from HND to NRT
« Reply #2 on: November 27, 2019, 04:06:12 PM »
Many who move to nrt end up failing hard due to the move. I'd stay at hnd.

At hnd, you just have to close all passenger flights over 2500nm or so. If you scheduled everything with this in mind then that should work out fairly, you can then move those planes to nrt with a new base opening and carry on. The profile of long haul demand so changes, so things like uk gain more demand and Germany loses demand. Moving to nrt would still make you mess with your long haul schedule.

Offline knobbygb

  • Members
  • Posts: 885
Re: Tokyo 1978 - managing the move from HND to NRT
« Reply #3 on: November 29, 2019, 05:31:09 AM »
Yeah, still not 100% decided but, if it's true that many flights will continue to operate during curfew - so long as I don't mess with them, that might be the clincher for moving. At least I'll have plenty of time to sort it all out. I only have around 60 aircraft that will need to remain at HND - and 260 doing long haul!

I know long haul profile will change a lot and I'm going to have to re-do everything AGAIN in the mid 80's anyway, when I finally get aircraft able to do Europe and USA without tech-stops.  That's going to be another load of work in a couple of real-time months.

Thanks.

Offline groundbum2

  • Members
  • Posts: 1113
Re: Tokyo 1978 - managing the move from HND to NRT
« Reply #4 on: December 11, 2019, 07:02:07 PM »
related question, Dawn of Millennium. RJAA has just opened and my LTBA-RJTT route which was 650pax/day and is now 250/day to RJAA! Will this stay at 250 for a long time or does it go back to the old 650ish number?

Simon

Online Andre090904

  • Members
  • Posts: 2171
Re: Tokyo 1978 - managing the move from HND to NRT
« Reply #5 on: December 11, 2019, 08:09:11 PM »
Haneda has significantly less LH demand than Narita. You should change that route to the new airport.

Offline Mort

  • Members
  • Posts: 666
Re: Tokyo 1978 - managing the move from HND to NRT
« Reply #6 on: December 11, 2019, 08:27:43 PM »
Haneda has significantly less LH demand than Narita. You should change that route to the new airport.

It moves automatically  :P

Think he is saying the old demand to HND was significantly higher than the new demand to NRT.

Offline schro

  • Members
  • Posts: 4561
Re: Tokyo 1978 - managing the move from HND to NRT
« Reply #7 on: December 11, 2019, 08:27:55 PM »
related question, Dawn of Millennium. RJAA has just opened and my LTBA-RJTT route which was 650pax/day and is now 250/day to RJAA! Will this stay at 250 for a long time or does it go back to the old 650ish number?

Simon

The profile of long haul demand so changes, so things like uk gain more demand and Germany loses demand. Moving to nrt would still make you mess with your long haul schedule.

Online Andre090904

  • Members
  • Posts: 2171
Re: Tokyo 1978 - managing the move from HND to NRT
« Reply #8 on: December 11, 2019, 09:37:09 PM »
It moves automatically  :P

Think he is saying the old demand to HND was significantly higher than the new demand to NRT.

Does that apply to foreign airlines flying TO Japan? Not sure.

Offline Tha_Ape

  • Members
  • Posts: 5596
Re: Tokyo 1978 - managing the move from HND to NRT
« Reply #9 on: December 12, 2019, 02:34:37 AM »
Does that apply to foreign airlines flying TO Japan? Not sure.

When I was in USSR / Russia, I recall canceling one of my 3 daily flights to Tokyo because of the decrease in demand when the shift happened.

Offline Verto

  • Members
  • Posts: 216
Re: Tokyo 1978 - managing the move from HND to NRT
« Reply #10 on: December 12, 2019, 02:47:18 AM »
I recall canceling some flights from ORD when the swap happen as well due to lower demand. After the initial change.

Offline knobbygb

  • Members
  • Posts: 885
Re: Tokyo 1978 - managing the move from HND to NRT
« Reply #11 on: December 13, 2019, 10:58:22 AM »
Well, the demand dropped on pretty much ALL long haul routes.  At best the drop was 15% to 20%, at worst it's down 50%  :o  (For sure Moscow was one of those).  The only routes for which NRT demand is significantly higher than it was at HND are the shorter routes - places like SIN (up at least 40%), BKK (up around 30%) and HNL (up a lot but I'm not sure how much).  Pretty much every other long haul flight has gone from being quite profitable to a bit marginal. UK routes are no better (as mentioned above) with many of the second tier airports dropping from around 170 per day to around 120. Cargo has increased quite a bit (from 15% to 30% of total revenue) and that's really the only thing that's keeping me afloat right now (if going from 10% profit to 8% loss is "keeping afloat").

I was aware that there was a drop in demand, but not this much, to be honest. I wonder why it's modeled like this?  I know there was trouble when NRT opened in real life, but surely this much drop in demand isn't realistic.  For all other major moves I've played, such as CDG, BKK, there is a small increase.

I can confirm that all the flights that move to NRT and are inside curfew hours keep operating at these 'illegal' times, by the way. Just don't make ANY changes - not even adjusting the cargo-type balance!
« Last Edit: December 13, 2019, 11:01:39 AM by knobbygb »

 

WARNING! This website is not compatible with the old version of Internet Explorer you are using.

If you are using the latest version please turn OFF the compatibility mode.