New airline thinking of opening route already 150% over demand!

[Eurowings]

Okay so I've just established a airline and I'm in positive profit!

I still have plenty of room to expand on routes with no competition, however to make my airline more realistic I want to open a route where already 4 airlines are flying and demand v supply is +150%

If I open a route am I likely to get a share of the market or will my LF be less than 30% or something ridiculous?

[Zobelle]

A lot of factors will determine your market share.

[gazzz0x2z]

to expand on Zo's answer, factors do include(but are not limited to :

• Your route image(will grow naturally, growth can be hastened with route marketing, though route marketing is often very costly for its benefits)
• The adaptation of the plane to the route(Fairchild metro in 1200NM route with 800 demand? You're begging for problems)
• The plane's size. If demand is 400, your opponents are flying A320s, and you are flying a CRJ(and the distance is short enough for the CRJ to shine), you should not be far from a full plane when route image becomes high.
• Pricing policies, both yours and opponents. When opponents are in price war and all at standard -70%, you're never gonna make money. and you can't know that one in advance
• Proper scheduling. Taking off at 0000, landing at 0455 is a killer for load factor
• Proper scheduling bis : if you have two flights, make sure they are distant at least one hour from each other

and many others that don't come  to mind now.

[Mort]

Would it be correct to say that if two competitors had flights between two airports, using the same planes, at times that weren't penalized, then the demand would be equally split between them?

[stealy]

Would it be correct to say that if two competitors had flights between two airports, using the same planes, at times that weren't penalized, then the demand would be equally split between them?

It seems to be the case most of the time. Not 100% evenly split tho. Many other factors determine which airline gets the passengers.

[gazzz0x2z]

Would it be correct to say that if two competitors had flights between two airports, using the same planes, at times that weren't penalized, then the demand would be equally split between them?

At the same ticket price? With the same route image and company image? With same seats? With each one having flights at least 1 hour distant? Yeah, the average would be similar.

But that kind of case is very uncommon. There are nearly always differences. Very often in pricing.

[groundbum2]

but we established a while back that things that distinguish one airlines flight  from another; viz;

ticket price
time of departure within 06h-21h window
size of plane (ignoring "too small" system warning)
ci%
seat comfort (hidens vs std etc)

barely swing load factor by a few % either way. Essentially the games divides the daily number of passengers by the daily number of flights. This was discussed to death in another topic..

What DOES matter is
ri%
ticket price (if extremely high then 0% LF)
direct vs 1 stop vs 2 stop on long haul
1980s onwards jets have more passenger appeal than props
negative ci% will kill load factors


Simon

[schro]

Okay so I've just established a airline and I'm in positive profit!

I still have plenty of room to expand on routes with no competition, however to make my airline more realistic I want to open a route where already 4 airlines are flying and demand v supply is +150%

If I open a route am I likely to get a share of the market or will my LF be less than 30% or something ridiculous?

It would be highly advisable to continue expanding where you have no competition. As a general rule, joining in on a route that's already served at 150% is not going to print money for you and can easily tip over a new airline.  Sure, it can be done when there's not a better option, which is where others are coming from in this thread.

Realistically, if you were an airline, you would chose to operate routes that generate the most profit for your company. Serving highly competitive routes does not generate more profit than an unserved route...

[gazzz0x2z]

Ah, and I just had a look at your company in GW3 : 3 fleet groups in 6 airplanes, that's costly. try to focus on one single fleet group as long as you can. It's just a few points of margin lost on commonality, but it changes radically the pace you can grow your company(and reduce the capability of other players to attack you). The difference between a 10% margin company and a 14% margin company is huge after a few years.

Commonality is especially tricky, because it always look like a price worth to pay. And besides some very specific situations(early game with a lack of airframes, painful fleet transition) that you are not in, it's nearly always better to avoid multiplying fleet types.

[Eurowings]

Ah, and I just had a look at your company in GW3 : 3 fleet groups in 6 airplanes, that's costly.

Okay so originally I leased a 146 because the runway was too short at destination for the 737-900 I owned at the time... I wasn't aware a 737-700/800 was absolutely fine on that route... I'm now waiting its delivery... When it arrives will I be able to clear 146 schedule and terminate lease early even if I pay the fee? I foolishly leased it for 14years to keep costs low...

[Eurowings]

No need to answer that, my mentor got back to me, my Avro 146 schedule has been moved to the 737 delivered today and the Avro is in storage!