New airline late in gw, small a/c craps or a big a/c crap for profit?

[Hotcliff]

Dear AirwaySim friends, especially gazzz0x2z and your lovely tutorials 

I am late in GW4 and realize that everything good is taken. So, I enjoy spending time anyway, starting and cancelling Airlines at a fast rate, trying to learn the "game mechanics" better.

I have found an airport uninhibited  (secret) , where there are several good routes still, not in traffic.
My fascination of scheduling, calculations and economics as an old Ambulance pilot IRL (Beech200), made me do a few tests..

Let's say a target airport is at 430nm and has a px demand of 100 px/day.

Alt.1 is to buy 3 old hunks of DH 114 Heron, cruising at modest 150 kts with a crew of 2.
Fuel flow and maintenance costs are very low. The downside is that I need 3 of those crates 2 times a day to make 100px/day.

Alt.2 is an old crate that takes 100px and make it in one trip. Well, I found an old B377, quite expensive, but could be leased at 67,450$/m. It does 255 kts and have a big crew and high maintenance costs.

I made a quick calculation and found following results:

DH-114 Heron , profit 43,756 $/w

B377, profit 22,918 $/w  incl. Lease cost

Of course I have not included all extra costs, as ground handling, staff training etc
This excersice was just for me to understand how it works..

The interesting part is that the px don't care how long the trip takes or in what kind of state the a/c is.
They still pay 75$/trip and I make twice the profit with 3 Heron's than with one B377 

This was a kind of "eye-opener" for me as an old "casual player".

Any comments? 

/Hotcliff

[Talentz]

You'll need alot of herons to fly around. Small aircraft are good for small operations. If you plan on doing anything outside of short, regional work, don't start small.

The B377 is still a decent platform even in the current year. Question is: Are there enough routes large enough for a fleet of B377s? You should look at slightly smaller platforms ala DC6/7, IL-18, SE-210. Stuff that will last another 10 years and provide flexibility as the years pass.

But, truly, keep the Herons as a last option. Unless your on a personal challenge, they can be skipped.



Talentz

[Hotcliff]

You'll need alot of herons to fly around. Small aircraft are good for small operations. If you plan on doing anything outside of short, regional work, don't start small.

The B377 is still a decent platform even in the current year. Question is: Are there enough routes large enough for a fleet of B377s? You should look at slightly smaller platforms ala DC6/7, IL-18, SE-210. Stuff that will last another 10 years and provide flexibility as the years pass.

But, truly, keep the Herons as a last option. Unless your on a personal challenge, they can be skipped.

Thank's for your reply Talentz,
The problem is that I have only regional routes at around 25-35 px/d in Italy. Everything else is overloaded already.
I have been looking abroad but there are not much to go for. Maybe Tel Aviv but it will take a Caravelle III at least.

I am not sure what strategy is best..This way, I thought I could build a profit with Heron's over a few years, then go abroad. The problem is with small px regional that the staff increases so much..Many small routes is suicide..

It's a dilemma

/Hotcliff

Talentz

[Hotcliff]

Sorry, your quote and my reply got into the same box 

[Talentz]

Its all good, I do it sometimes as well.

The answer to your dilemma is medium aircraft. There are plenty of new models to chose from. Grab a few, don't over expand and wait it out a few years until pax number go stronger. Once they get into the 50 daily range, then SE-210 or even F28 for Jet age.

No need to go super big. Measured growth is just as good as flying 500+ aircraft. Building a strong airline keeps others away.



Talentz

[gazzz0x2z]

to add to what Talentz said(besides thanks for the compliment), slot cost is quiclky prohibitive for big airports.

One can make a lot of flights from FRA with small aircraft, but needs more capital to buy the slots than to buy the plane. It's not a good way to grow. I call it the turtle strategy. You can't be attacked, but you're not going to grow much either. Bigger props(ATRs, A140s) are especially efficient in this strategy in the 21st century. They'll fo OK money, noone can threaten you through frequency, BUT you're not growing as much as with jets.

as long as you stay far from the big markets, well, that's just another way of playing. As soon as you're nearing the big aiports, be assured that you'll get only a few breadcrumbs from the big cake, and the guys with the big planes will get most of it.

For the B377, specifically, I did use it with success from 1950 to 1970 in current GW2. From Poland. The rationale was that Poland has 2 markets, the European one, covered by medium things, and the middle east(and Canarias, similar in distance), just at perfect distance for the 377. Of course, replacing them with 727s in 1970 has been a huge boost to my profitability, but still, 377s were not ridiculous at all on those 1800/2200NM routes with 100/200 demand and not much opposition.

Of course, if you use it on a route short enough to be flown by Herons, it will be reduced to sheesh-kebab. That's not what the bird is designed for. With its huge turn-around time, it's supposed to make one single long flight per day. Herons are going to shine on very short distances, between small airports where slot costs are weak. Do use the right bird for the right route, and you shall be rewarded.

[Hotcliff]

Its all good, I do it sometimes as well.

The answer to your dilemma is medium aircraft. There are plenty of new models to chose from. Grab a few, don't over expand and wait it out a few years until pax number go stronger. Once they get into the 50 daily range, then SE-210 or even F28 for Jet age.

No need to go super big. Measured growth is just as good as flying 500+ aircraft. Building a strong airline keeps others away.



Talentz

Thanks, I might try that now..build a small network that generates cash for a few years 
The good old CV340-440 is a good alternative I guess?
/Hotcliff

[Hotcliff]

to add to what Talentz said(besides thanks for the compliment), slot cost is quiclky prohibitive for big airports.

One can make a lot of flights from FRA with small aircraft, but needs more capital to buy the slots than to buy the plane. It's not a good way to grow. I call it the turtle strategy. You can't be attacked, but you're not going to grow much either. Bigger props(ATRs, A140s) are especially efficient in this strategy in the 21st century. They'll fo OK money, noone can threaten you through frequency, BUT you're not growing as much as with jets.

as long as you stay far from the big markets, well, that's just another way of playing. As soon as you're nearing the big aiports, be assured that you'll get only a few breadcrumbs from the big cake, and the guys with the big planes will get most of it.

For the B377, specifically, I did use it with success from 1950 to 1970 in current GW2. From Poland. The rationale was that Poland has 2 markets, the European one, covered by medium things, and the middle east(and Canarias, similar in distance), just at perfect distance for the 377. Of course, replacing them with 727s in 1970 has been a huge boost to my profitability, but still, 377s were not ridiculous at all on those 1800/2200NM routes with 100/200 demand and not much opposition.

Of course, if you use it on a route short enough to be flown by Herons, it will be reduced to sheesh-kebab. That's not what the bird is designed for. With its huge turn-around time, it's supposed to make one single long flight per day. Herons are going to shine on very short distances, between small airports where slot costs are weak. Do use the right bird for the right route, and you shall be rewarded.

Thanks gazzz for your reply.
Yes, this is a very challenging sim which attracts me very much due to all difficult aspects and life-destined decisions 
Having flown taxi short haul regional myself in Piper Navajo's and Beech 200's I must say it is not what I dream of, let alone playing in a sim..
I wish there would be a nice medium airport available, unoccupied, even after a few years from game start, with a descent amount of medium demand airports..So you can build up a nice Airline and in a few years go into jet age and longer haul..

The Caravelle and Comet I loved IRL even if they were short lived..Douglas DC9 I guess would be the best option though..for future.

The problem is the start at this time 1961..where and with what do I start? 

/Hotcliff

[Zobelle]

Viscounts have excellent economics if your base will support it.

Just putting it out there.

[Hotcliff]

Viscounts have excellent economics if your base will support it.

Just putting it out there.

Thanks Zobelle, Viscount was on my wishlist but no used a/c for sale 
I did go for CV440 instead.

/Hotcliff

[Amelie090904]

There are always options to start an airline. For example, game world 3 has started in the game year 1998 and I joined in 2005. As of now (game year 2022) I am doing about 500 million in quarterly profits and am short of 700.000 passengers a week. In comparison to the other airlines of my country (Turkey) I am still rather smallish, though.

What I try to say is that while you think an "airport is taken", it does not need to be true. Just because an airline is based somewhere, it does not mean that the airport has no more potential for a newcomer. Don't just look if the demand to the routes is filled, but HOW it is filled. For example, in the game world I just mentioned I opened bases in Istanbul and Ankara seeing that the airlines there fly A320 with ~150 seats. Demand was officially filled. Yet, if I go for airplanes with some 80 seats, I still can get half the market share if I am clever in scheduling. And that's what I did. I went for Antonov 140 in short haul and Dornier 928 in medium haul to "attack" the market share. Meanwhile I am also flying Comair on longer or juicier routes as my competitors no longer seem to play actively.

Anyways...what I mean is check at how airlines operate. If you see that an airline uses large planes on short/medium haul, then there is potential to attack that airline with smaller aircrafts. Another example maybe. In one of the earlier game worlds I was based in Greece and my competitor went for DC9. I used Viscount 700 which were slower, but cheaper. Turned out his jets couldnt fly profitably while my prop aircrafts had no big issues on competing with him. Try to find airlines/players that use too large aircrafts or also too costly/old aircrafts.

In current gw2 for example there is an airline flying very very old 727 in the late 1990's without a transition in sight. It did not take long and an alliance member opened a base there to attack that airline with new, modern aircraft. The airline flying the old 727 now not only has the transition problem, but also a new competitor who is ready to fight with brandnew aircraft.

Again, don't just look superficially at things, but analyse the aircraft types, route lengths, aircraft age etc...and I am sure you'll find a nice spot sooner or later.

[Hotcliff]

There are always options to start an airline. For example, game world 3 has started in the game year 1998 and I joined in 2005. As of now (game year 2022) I am doing about 500 million in quarterly profits and am short of 700.000 passengers a week. In comparison to the other airlines of my country (Turkey) I am still rather smallish, though.

What I try to say is that while you think an "airport is taken", it does not need to be true. Just because an airline is based somewhere, it does not mean that the airport has no more potential for a newcomer. Don't just look if the demand to the routes is filled, but HOW it is filled. For example, in the game world I just mentioned I opened bases in Istanbul and Ankara seeing that the airlines there fly A320 with ~150 seats. Demand was officially filled. Yet, if I go for airplanes with some 80 seats, I still can get half the market share if I am clever in scheduling. And that's what I did. I went for Antonov 140 in short haul and Dornier 928 in medium haul to "attack" the market share. Meanwhile I am also flying Comair on longer or juicier routes as my competitors no longer seem to play actively.

Anyways...what I mean is check at how airlines operate. If you see that an airline uses large planes on short/medium haul, then there is potential to attack that airline with smaller aircrafts. Another example maybe. In one of the earlier game worlds I was based in Greece and my competitor went for DC9. I used Viscount 700 which were slower, but cheaper. Turned out his jets couldnt fly profitably while my prop aircrafts had no big issues on competing with him. Try to find airlines/players that use too large aircrafts or also too costly/old aircrafts.

In current gw2 for example there is an airline flying very very old 727 in the late 1990's without a transition in sight. It did not take long and an alliance member opened a base there to attack that airline with new, modern aircraft. The airline flying the old 727 now not only has the transition problem, but also a new competitor who is ready to fight with brandnew aircraft.

Again, don't just look superficially at things, but analyse the aircraft types, route lengths, aircraft age etc...and I am sure you'll find a nice spot sooner or later.

Thanks for reply Andre and a good inspiration.
I will really have your words in mind now, having started over again in CZ with CV440's.
/Hotcliff