(More) explanations about cargo allocation welcome

[Tha_Ape]

Hi,

I opened a thread like one month ago, about the cargo allocation on Moscow - London. However, it was a bit difficult to analyze as there are 2 possible airports on one side, and 3 on the other.
But I just found a similarly strange situation easier to analyze on Moscow - Rome as only FCO is concerned on the italian side.

SVO-FCO
- 8 pax flights per day, out of which 6 with large planes capable of carrying LC and SC.
- 1 cargo flight per day, in the middle of the night to offer a very different time.

DME-FCO
- 1 single cargo flight in the middle of the day.

Now, the problem is that the single cargo flight from DME manages to get 80% of the potential demand, while the 6+2+1 with much more different times from SVO only manages to get the other 20% of the potential demand.
And the LC that every single of the 9 flights from SVO is able to handle has slipped completely to DME, where there is only one flight.

I get it that in Moscow SVO and DME might have different catchment areas (SVO is North, DME is South), but SVO is closer to the city, and SVO is larger than DME (5 infra + 9 traffic vs 5+7).

Sami, some further explanations would be much welcome. Really. Because this allocation seems completely absurd.
This is from GW#2.

Thank you.

[Sami]

Checked the background data and there might be bug, since the system does not register any light or heavy cargo being offered on UUEE-LIRF route (standard cargo values are ok, and as you see those are well comparable and logical UUEE vs UUDD) and it might prevent the change of the demand. Not sure though, but unless I looked something wrong it looks a bit strange.

[Tha_Ape]

Yep. Thanks for looking into it.

Might I add that even for SC it seems strange that a single flight in the middle of the day (DME - 4400kg) is able to attract more demand than 7 flights spread all around the clock (SVO - 3370kg).

As a matter of fact, on a lot of the city pairs me and Flycow are competing for (he flies from DME, I fly from SVO), he somewhat manages to attract way more demand while it should be the other way around because from SVO the pax flights offer more options each day. Other examples:
Moscow - Amsterdam
DME: https://www.airwaysim.com/game/Routes/Planning/UUDD/EHAM/?go=1
SVO: https://www.airwaysim.com/game/Routes/Planning/UUEE/EHAM/?go=1
Moscow - Birmingham
DME: https://www.airwaysim.com/game/Routes/Planning/UUDD/EGBB/?go=1
SVO: https://www.airwaysim.com/game/Routes/Planning/UUEE/EGBB/?go=1

Etc.

So I think this might be SVO/DME related.

[Cardinal]

Is your competition heavily discounting the route?

[Tha_Ape]

Is your competition heavily discounting the route?

Didn't ask, but even so, there's something wrong. I got it that cargo is very price-sensitive, but no matter what, 7 flights should still take more than a single one.

Plus, as he's flying 2/3 or 3/4 empty 757F vs my 732F, he'd lose the price war and I don't think he's trying to do this. We live fairly well together and I'm no trying to hurt him, it's only that the allocation doesn't make sense and I think something is wrong. I mean, check the data again and you'll see it.

[JumboShrimp]

Didn't ask, but even so, there's something wrong. I got it that cargo is very price-sensitive

It is not that price sensitive, unless you go to extremes.

7 flights should still take more than a single one.

If Sami is right about system not registering LC and HC components as SVO, than that single flight with all 3 components counting is providing 3x the relevant supply of all the other flights.

[Tha_Ape]

If Sami is right about system not registering LC and HC components as SVO, than that single flight with all 3 components counting is providing 3x the relevant supply of all the other flights.

This was only about SC, which is theoretically fine, Sami says: 1 flight from DME manages to get more SC than the 7 from SVO.
It takes an proportionally much more LC and HC, but also takes way more SC than it should.
Or didn't I understand what you meant?

[JumboShrimp]

This was only about SC, which is theoretically fine, Sami says: 1 flight from DME manages to get more SC than the 7 from SVO.
It takes an proportionally much more LC and HC, but also takes way more SC than it should.
Or didn't I understand what you meant?

The way I understand Sami is that this system, in this case, sees only SC supply at SVO.
At DME it sees all 3 components (so 1 vs. 3).  Everything is oversupplied.

I don't think it makes a lot of sense to speculate here until Sami has a chance to look at the LC, HC issue.

However, as far as re-allocation of demand between airports, we did not get a lot of guidance how system works internally to re-allocate demand.

[Tha_Ape]

The way I understand Sami is that this system, in this case, sees only SC supply at SVO.
At DME it sees all 3 components (so 1 vs. 3).  Everything is oversupplied.

I don't think it makes a lot of sense to speculate here until Sami has a chance to look at the LC, HC issue.

However, as far as re-allocation of demand between airports, we did not get a lot of guidance how system works internally to re-allocate demand.

About the topic, I believe we don't understand each other right now, talking of 2 different things.

But anyway, you're right, better wait for the results of the investigation

[knobbygb]

- 1 cargo flight per day, in the middle of the night to offer a very different time.

...a single flight in the middle of the day (DME - 4400kg) is able to attract more demand than 7 flights spread all around the clock (SVO - 3370kg).

It's not really the main subject of your question, but you mention this twice in your posts so it might be worth clarifying. Spreading flights evenly around the clock, or deliberately avoiding time when other airlines fly makes absolutely no difference. You just need to keep your OWN flights at least 1hr apart (and even less for very dense routes - I have the exact figures from experimenting, but I'm not willing to share them). You can have three flights per day at 13:00, 14:00 and 15:00 and the system will treat them exactly the same as if they were at 07:00, 14:00 and 21:00. Also, three is NO comparison at all against the flight times of your competitors.  I just thought this was worth pointing out as I've seen several similar comments recently.

[MikeS]

It's not really the main subject of your question, but you mention this twice in your posts so it might be worth clarifying. Spreading flights evenly around the clock, or deliberately avoiding time when other airlines fly makes absolutely no difference. You just need to keep your OWN flights at least 1hr apart (and even less for very dense routes - I have the exact figures from experimenting, but I'm not willing to share them). You can have three flights per day at 13:00, 14:00 and 15:00 and the system will treat them exactly the same as if they were at 07:00, 14:00 and 21:00. Also, three is NO comparison at all against the flight times of your competitors.  I just thought this was worth pointing out as I've seen several similar comments recently.

If you're right (and you probably are since you did the experimenting) then that would be big news for me. I have always made an effort to space flights properly
and check against competition schedule. Quite a waste it appears but then again part of the game just goes on in our minds and some of us go beyond what the
game requires simply to satisfy one's vision/ego

[Tha_Ape]

It's not really the main subject of your question, but you mention this twice in your posts so it might be worth clarifying. Spreading flights evenly around the clock, or deliberately avoiding time when other airlines fly makes absolutely no difference. You just need to keep your OWN flights at least 1hr apart (and even less for very dense routes - I have the exact figures from experimenting, but I'm not willing to share them). You can have three flights per day at 13:00, 14:00 and 15:00 and the system will treat them exactly the same as if they were at 07:00, 14:00 and 21:00. Also, three is NO comparison at all against the flight times of your competitors.  I just thought this was worth pointing out as I've seen several similar comments recently.

Thanks for reminding me.
I know it already but my brain still refuses to apply it as it seems such an irrational behaviour.

Quite a waste it appears but then again part of the game just goes on in our minds and some of us go beyond what the
game requires simply to satisfy one's vision/ego

Hmm... Yes, much probably

[gazzz0x2z]

I confirm the 1 hours law. I did test it thouroughly plenty of times, especially when my mentees were doing stupid scheduling and not listening to their mentor.

[groundbum2]

has anybody seen cargo supply GROW at an airport? Let's say airport X has 10Kg of cargo per day now, and a potential of 50Kg cargo per day, and I fly 100kg per day. I thought if the flights were there, then cargo would increase because of the pull factor. But when playing in the GW3 USA I never saw this happen despite loads of oversupply by me and others, the daily cargo available stayed the same. I admit I didn't study it scientifically, but I never saw cargo available grow.

Simon

[Cardinal]

has anybody seen cargo supply GROW at an airport? Let's say airport X has 10Kg of cargo per day now, and a potential of 50Kg cargo per day, and I fly 100kg per day. I thought if the flights were there, then cargo would increase because of the pull factor. But when playing in the GW3 USA I never saw this happen despite loads of oversupply by me and others, the daily cargo available stayed the same. I admit I didn't study it scientifically, but I never saw cargo available grow.

Simon

I can confirm that in cases where I have ZERO competition on the route from any other airport at either end of the route, the current demand has shifted.

However, in my experience if there is even 1kg of available service in a particular class of cargo from another route pair within the catchment area (example: MCO-DCA vs. SFB-BWI), that class of cargo WILL NOT shift, period. But I have seen where CL is covered by PAX flights, CS and CH will shift away from that airport if it's unserved.

[JumboShrimp]

has anybody seen cargo supply GROW at an airport? Let's say airport X has 10Kg of cargo per day now, and a potential of 50Kg cargo per day, and I fly 100kg per day. I thought if the flights were there, then cargo would increase because of the pull factor. But when playing in the GW3 USA I never saw this happen despite loads of oversupply by me and others, the daily cargo available stayed the same. I admit I didn't study it scientifically, but I never saw cargo available grow.

Simon

Yes, both the "potential demand" grows over time (can fall in recession) and "actual" demand shifts between the airports serving it.

I kept track of one airport pair, and here are some numbers:

(columns are: potential outgoing, actual outgoing, potential incoming, actual incoming)
184510 128100 45830 20260
186200 128350 46160 19370
187700 128190 46530 17120
187460 130440 46650 18770
187210 130440 46740 18150
186950 128190 46860 18140
186700 125940 46970 15940
194790 125890 48610  9230
198950 130500 48900  9590
209570 134060 49460  9590

[wilian.souza2]

I kept track of one airport pair, and here are some numbers:

(columns are: potential outgoing, actual outgoing, potential incoming, actual incoming)
184510 128100 45830 20260
186200 128350 46160 19370
187700 128190 46530 17120
187460 130440 46650 18770
187210 130440 46740 18150
186950 128190 46860 18140
186700 125940 46970 15940
194790 125890 48610  9230
198950 130500 48900  9590
209570 134060 49460  9590

What's the interval between these figures? I have the impression that these changes take so slowly that it's far more convenient to create cargo routes where there's actual cargo demand.

[Tha_Ape]

Sami, same problem with the route to Manchester.
1 flight from Domodedovo drags more current demand than 7 flights from Sheremetyevo, and especially LC and HC.

Any news on the investigation?

Thanks.

[JumboShrimp]

What's the interval between these figures? I have the impression that these changes take so slowly that it's far more convenient to create cargo routes where there's actual cargo demand.

This was only about 2.5 years, but to a fast growing Far East destination.

OTOH, cargo demand between the US and Japan seems to have been stuck at about the same level for about 15+ years in GW3.  Japan economy has been really bad during this period, the US economy has been sluggish too...

[Tha_Ape]

Hi Sami,

any clue about what's seemingly a bug, from what you said?

Thank you.