9/11 drop

Started by Toivoja, March 13, 2009, 12:53:43 PM

Toivoja

If I understand correctly this event is also modelled into the game.

i wonder how big drop it'll be and how many airlines will be in trouble.

I predict about 5-10% drop in LF.


Sami

it's only partly modeled thru demand statistics, the actual bigger effect of closed airspace, skyrocketing insurance charges etc remains to be done later.

bukatino2000

Quote from: sami on March 13, 2009, 08:14:55 PM
it's only partly modeled thru demand statistics, the actual bigger effect of closed airspace, skyrocketing insurance charges etc remains to be done later.

Events should be programmed according to a random model, not reflecting RL. Otherwise would be easy to skip them

charger27

Realizing of course, if something like 9/11 is programmed into the game it would penalize the North American airlines without a significant impact to... everyone else.

I don't see any reason to add more degrees of difficulty... it is a game, which doesn't have to imitate real life down to the specific detail.

Within a multi-player environment, I don't see how you can fairly handicap SOME of the players.
By adding a 9/11 regional event with some degree of historical accuracy (otherwise, what's the point), you don't leave yourself much choice but to do exactly that.

Dazwalsh

but because we all have the option of basing our airlines wherever we want the north american airlines would know full well what will happen after 9/11.

ollik

There are already HUGE differences between countries due to passenger amounts, tax level (from nothing to even 30% of all your profits to taxes), available airports etc.. It is a game but as the title says it's also a Online Airline Management SIMULATION, which means it will try to follow the real life trends as closely as possible (although purely imaginational data can also be used if wanted). I think things such the 70's oil crisis and 9/11 really belong there and as everyone has the possibility to know what will happen in the future of the game it won't even be that bad.

If you want to play a multiplayer game where each player is equal, try Chess.

Gaius Marius

I agree ollik.  However, it still gives all of us an un"real" advantage knowing that events are going to occur before they happen.  I would like to see a more randomized set of events (good and bad) that we cannot predict.
"Flying is learning how to throw yourself at the ground and miss"

charger27

#7
Quote from: ollik on March 16, 2009, 11:42:39 PM
There are already HUGE differences between countries due to passenger amounts, tax level (from nothing to even 30% of all your profits to taxes), available airports etc.. It is a game but as the title says it's also a Online Airline Management SIMULATION, which means it will try to follow the real life trends as closely as possible (although purely imaginational data can also be used if wanted). I think things such the 70's oil crisis and 9/11 really belong there and as everyone has the possibility to know what will happen in the future of the game it won't even be that bad.
If you want to play a multiplayer game where each player is equal, try Chess.
Ya, cute... but not sure when chess became a multiplayer game.

So you think it is right that either:
a. we all crowd into some other continent because North America will have 9/11 (not very practical).
And for those of us from the US or Canada, why would we want to play a game based out of... Dubai?
b. if history holds true, the airspace over North America is totally closed for 4 or 5 days - while everybody else continues operating.
Then when we can reopen, our passengers and revenues are severely cut.

We are not talking about a random occurrence generated by the game here, this is a major issue for the North American airlines (depending how close the developers program the details).
That's like having your entire fleet go into C check at the same time... alot of airlines won't survive that (which I'm sure would please some of you greatly).
No surprise that it is the European and Asian based guys that have no problem with this.  ::)

The other thing that WILL happen...
because the offshore airlines know that this disaster is going to take place, they will be making plans to take advantage of the North American based routes (no? gimme a break).
If I have a successful Honolulu to Hong Kong run (use any example you want)... knowing my planes are going to be grounded in the US, an Asian based airline can be set up and ready to jump that route when 9/11 hits.
As was mentioned - KNOWLEDGE that the crisis is going to occur right down to the minute, gives an already unfair advantage a bigger boost.

Part 2 of that is with the foreknown documentation of 9/11, all the airlines based in other continents will mysteriously not fly to North America that day... thus, taking away from the realism of numerous intercontinental foreign airlines that had aircraft grounded in the US and Canada during the actual sequence of events (don't even try to convince me this won't happen).

toyotaboy95

is SARS modelled into the game ???

yyebo

in game 3, the 9/11 is coming soon.

I'm expecting a huge drop in my LFs after 9/11

However, I found my LFs droped sharply in about 3 weeks before 9/11, was this because of the 9/11 or the comptetors actions?


Sigma

I noticed a 5% drop right on the first of the month that seemed across the board.  Which would make sense if we were using statistics on a monthly basis, but I didn't think the data was quite that granular.

Sami

The stats are indeed monthly. But as mentioned here (or elsewhere) the actual "events" module is not done yet, so the only changes in pax demand are based on these statistics and the effects are very mild overall.

yyebo

Quote from: sami on March 29, 2009, 02:01:36 PM
The stats are indeed monthly. But as mentioned here (or elsewhere) the actual "events" module is not done yet, so the only changes in pax demand are based on these statistics and the effects are very mild overall.

I see. Thanks Sami.