Demand modeling questions

[Air Catalunya]

Hello,

I know I saw something in the forum 2/3 years ago but I can't find it anymore, ...

This is to talk, and ask, if something will be made in the future to properly model the demand between :
- "former colonies" and "former colonizers", strong cultural and economical links remain
- overseas territories, "islands" such as in the Carribean, Indian Ocean islands, Pacific Ocean islands etc.. and the rest of the world, based on realistic facts.

This particular modeling properly made would allow gamers many new possibilities of creating regional prop. airliners. It is nearly impossible 'til now as the demand has no logic.

Here are some examples from the Jet Age 7, I found similar inconsistencies in every game.

> France has overseas territories in the Carribean all connected in real life : no demand in the games
> Paris Orly is the major airport to serve all those overseas territories, low demand in the games
> All Caribbean islands should have at least a medium demand to Miami, low or no demand in the games from all small /medium airports
> Strong demand should exist between Lisboa and Angola (former Port. colony)
> Demand between Jakarta and Amsterdam should be way way higher than demand from Jakarta to London or Frankfurt
> A good demand should exist between Sydney and all pacific islands such as Tahiti, Fiji, Nouméa etc..., same from Auckland
> A very strong demand should exist between France and Northern Africa etc etc...

Thanx !!
And enjoy the game 

[Meicci]

I believe there are only few "custom created" routes out there, like Hong Kong to Taipei Taoyuan, Haneda to Sapporo, and the one in South America.

There are tons of routes that needs that kind of fixing. But sami is developing a whole new passenger system, so I don't think that he has time to fix every small route one by one..

[Budjet]

Plus to add to this, demand from British and German airports should be waaaay higher for Spanish and Greek destinations.

[alexgv1]

Plus to add to this, demand from British and German airports should be waaaay higher for Spanish and Greek destinations.

Agree, lots of holiday makers. But it would only be for 6 months or so of the year. We don't yet know if/how city based demand and the scheduling system will handle seasonal demand.

[exchlbg]

It´s the same old discussion over and over....how could an automated system reflect all special relationships between any two points in the world ? It is simply impossible. Same thing with seasonal demand. Every route would have to be tweaked manually. It´s the question of how much work this system would need to be managed/coded.
How much work would it need on our side to cope with extreme seasonal changes? Don´t forget not everybody is able to play this game for some hours per day.I heard some really have to work for a living, that includes the creator of this game.And not everybody is sitting next to a computer or can watch his phone all the time.
For every lacking demand compared to RL there is a demand in game, that doesn´t exist out there.Why don´t you ask Sami to correct this, too ?

[Sami]

These country relations can be easily modeled even with the current systems if we'd have the data for it. But for most of the world, we don't as it's pure manual work in forming the country-pair relations (over 50 year span in history) and using judgement to determine the level of demand... Volunteers are welcome as always.

Seasonal demand won't be modelled as players wouldn't keep up with it (= change your schedules every 6 months).

[SHAGRATHI]

These country relations can be easily modeled even with the current systems if we'd have the data for it. But for most of the world, we don't as it's pure manual work in forming the country-pair relations (over 50 year span in history) and using judgement to determine the level of demand... Volunteers are welcome as always.

Seasonal demand won't be modelled as players wouldn't keep up with it (= change your schedules every 6 months).

volunteers for what? how could someone help you? with the demands of certain routes maybe?

[exchlbg]

How do you find out the demand of a route? Just by clicking through real-life timetables? By telling stories of ancient memories about taking a holiday trip with some type of aircraft?
These numbers are fully dependant on airline decisions and don´t tell you anything about the real demands of potential passengers. And this game should not turn into a re-design program of existing airlines.
Sami was answering the question of the OP, who was asking for a very special political and therefore traffic-immanent relation between European states and their overseas colonies over a longer period of time.Obviously that can be modelled, if someone is helping him with global historical dates.
All other posters relate to some "observations" they made especially relating holiday traffic. That won´t be modelled for very obvious reasons.

[Sami]

No, we are most definitely NOT looking for some individual's memories about "demand" on some route. I was talking about the country relations there.

(It's rather simple in this style:
North Korea - South Korea => demand factor 0
Portugal - Angola => demand factor 1.5)

[Jona L.]

(It's rather simple in this style:
North Korea - South Korea => demand factor 0
Portugal - Angola => demand factor 1.5)

Germany <-> Turkey => demand factor 20+

Seriously, even in winter the supply is insane with a very high LF. TK sends a daily 2000 seats each way in winter and nera to 25k/week in summer between DUS and IST only. LF 90-100% (which in AWS is a demand of ~900 (MT))

So demand factor should be something like 2.5-3 for GER-TUR.


Only speaking of DUS of course, but it is a good example how off the demand is sometimes.

cheers,
[SC] Jona L.

[alexgv1]

An example of strong cultural ties between two countries.

[Air Catalunya]

Where can I send an excel file with all compiled informations on special links between countries or regions ?
Thanx.

[exchlbg]

I wouldn´t call demand Germany-Turkey a sign of strong cultural ties. It´s because on one side Turks form the biggest group of foreign work-force that came to Germany since the 60s. On the other side Turkey (especially Antalya) became the most visited holiday spot besides Spain (Mallorca), also valid for people that spend the winters there (pensionists) or own appartments they have to care for.
But the second part of demand formed only some years ago and possibly will decline in the future when cheaper destinations pop up.
I don´t know how something like that can be worked into system except tweaking it manually for every season between 1950-2020.

[alexgv1]

I don´t know how something like that can be worked into system except tweaking it manually for every season between 1950-2020.

I'm sorry you don't consider Turks cultured 

Sami said it would be as simple to model as changing the value from 1.0 to 2.0, for example, in his earlier post. The fact is that the flights between these countries will be higher due to visiting friends and relatives, and Turks liking to go home for their holidays (similarly Germans like holidaying in such places too?)

[exchlbg]

I did´t say the Turks have no culture. There are just no historical ties as maybe between UK and their colonies, just a special kind of relation.
I didn´t say anything against the facts of higher traffic, which is obvious, I was asking to which extent any possible special relation between two parts of the globe can be modelled in the database for a 70-year timespan.If Sami says, it´s easy, so let´s go for it.
And please stop putting words into my mouth.

[Pilot Oatmeal]

I did´t say the Turks have no culture. There are just no historical ties as maybe between UK and their colonies, just a special kind of relation.

Not after Tuesday night... #robbed

[alexgv1]

And please stop putting words into my mouth.

Sorry it's another one of those British humour things apparently. What do you mean above?

Yeah there are no long term political links that I know of, seeing as Turkey was only born in the last century I guess it's impossible. As you say the important thing is the demand not the reasons for it (bums on seats either way).

Not after Tuesday night... #robbed

Haha, the football. I was raging.

[Seattle]

> A very strong demand should exist between France and Northern Africa etc etc...

Thanx !!
And enjoy the game 

You can thank me for the high demand between Algeria and France. 
Now, Morocco and Tunisia are not so lucky (or really any other former French colonies)

[Name_Omitted]

You can thank me for the high demand between Algeria and France. 
Now, Morocco and Tunisia are not so lucky (or really any other former French colonies)

Seattle and Algeria *shudder* I still have fond memories of being soundly beaten, and that was back in beta... 

[exchlbg]

Since the PAX allocation system does not make a difference between huge amounts of seasonal leasure PAX and the average traffic (business)
PAX, it should be very difficult to get a reasonable all-year-average demand between many destinations.
Maybe the new city based demand model may bring the answer as regions can be differentiated as business/family or mainly leisure areas.