What triggers a Bankruptcy warning?

[reedgary1]

My airline is slightly cash-flow positive.  In business for almost 1 year.

As luck would have it, 6 of my 9 aircraft are undergoing C checks over a 2 month period.  The $200,000+ C-check costs have left me with a negative cash balance.

I am currently at:

-$200,000 cash
$5,055,000 loan balance
CC credit rating

...with 4 remaining C-checks left in the next 45 days.  All of my planes are Fokker F27's and F28's, and all are leased.

I searched and found a note from Sami a few years back that said:

The BK warning clears within 24hrs if the conditions no longer exist.

Conditions are: negative financial result for last 30 days, more than -5mil cash OR airline value less than -5 mil

How long will it be before I get a BK notice?  Also, one of my leased planes is idle and is due for a C-check later this week.  Would it be advisable to delay the $200,000 C-check for this plane until I can afford to pay for the slots to put it into service?

Thanks in advance.

[swiftus27]

a few things trigger it. 

current financial state, negative cash flow...   just to name a couple

[reedgary1]

a few things trigger it. 

current financial state, negative cash flow...   just to name a couple

Thanks for stating the obvious.

My question is: at what point in your current financial state does the BK warning rear its ugly head?  Am I basically toast and need to voluntarily BK now to start over, or can I survive the next 45 days?

TIA.

[Infinity]

The BK warning clears within 24hrs if the conditions no longer exist.

Conditions are: negative financial result for last 30 days, more than -5mil cash OR airline value less than -5 mil

Both of which applies to your airline.
You already posted the answer, what do you want to know? Just do the maths, if you can't get a positive result within the next weeks or raise your airline value above the -5 mil, you are most likely done.

[reedgary1]

Both of which applies to your airline.
You already posted the answer, what do you want to know? Just do the maths, if you can't get a positive result within the next weeks or raise your airline value above the -5 mil, you are most likely done.

I am confused by Sami's more than -5mil cash condition.

I am currently at -$632,000 cash (just got docked for another C-check).  So, as long as my cash position stays under negative-$5 million, I'm OK?

[Sami]

The -5 mil is valid only for some certain game date, all money values are always inflation adjusted, so in jet age it can be for example -$0.5mil (or something in that ballpark) .. And if you have been there temporarily for example mid-week when salaries are paid, then it's enough to trigger it.

But as long as things are going uphill then the warning goes away in a day.

[schro]

I am confused by Sami's more than -5mil cash condition.

I am currently at -$632,000 cash (just got docked for another C-check).  So, as long as my cash position stays under negative-$5 million, I'm OK?

Yes - and keep in mind that it is inflation adjusted as sami says, but you should have at least a million or two in fudge factor (i.e. free bank loan) where your bills will continue to get paid. You're usually not doomed until lease renewals/advertising/maintenance stops getting paid. Once that happens, your loads will start plummetting making it rather hard to recover from no matter how profitable you were.

The bankruptcy system gives you nearly a full real life week (or nearly a full game year) to get back on your feet, so if you're worried about going negative a million or two within a month, but can bounce back from that, you should be just fine.

Though, if you're cutting it this close with a DOTM game, there's probably a few structural things you can change with your routes or costs to make life easier....

[reedgary1]

Yes - and keep in mind that it is inflation adjusted as sami says, but you should have at least a million or two in fudge factor (i.e. free bank loan) where your bills will continue to get paid. You're usually not doomed until lease renewals/advertising/maintenance stops getting paid. Once that happens, your loads will start plummetting making it rather hard to recover from no matter how profitable you were.

The bankruptcy system gives you nearly a full real life week (or nearly a full game year) to get back on your feet, so if you're worried about going negative a million or two within a month, but can bounce back from that, you should be just fine.

Though, if you're cutting it this close with a DOTM game, there's probably a few structural things you can change with your routes or costs to make life easier....

Thanks - that helps a lot.  That was my main concern - if I can slide through for another month (game time), I know that I can get back on my feet.  None of my leases are up for at least another year.  I didn't realize (until it was too late, LOL) that it's important to keep track of future C-check dates.  Hopefully, I'll have a few more planes this time next year, or enough $$$ saved in the bank to ride it out.  Lesson learned.

Thanks again.