Route DATA: CGH-SDU

[EduardoMorteo]

Hi, I was planning a new route, between São Paulo/Congonhas and Rio de Janeiro/Santos Dumont. The route data show me an analysis: "This route has a mediocre passenger demand." I would like to know if this analysis consider a mediocre demand (130/day) because of my enterprise poor Image (, or it works for an enterprise with good image either?

"Real world" DATA:
The route SBRJ-SBSP is one of the most demanded route in world. A research shows that Congonhas-Santos Dumont  is in the TOP10 of the most profitable routes in the world, in the TOP10 of shuttle flights (this route is the second most popular). The first is Madrid-Barcelona.
We have more than 50 daily flights between SBRJ-SBSP (Rio-São Paulo), operated by A319(144 seats), 737-700 (144 seats) and Fokker 100 (109 seats). The monthly LF is something around 60-75%.


Greetings!

[pharmy]

Yup 894 flights per week : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World%27s_busiest_passenger_air_routes , this route is definitely underrepresented in the game.

[EduardoMorteo]

Yup 894 flights per week : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World%27s_busiest_passenger_air_routes , this route is definitely underrepresented in the game.

Huge number of flights between these airports. 

I found the same problem in almost every route/flight in Brazil.

[Jps]

Hi! Here's a quote of Sami from another thread. If you find that some route pairs have wrong pax demand, use this way to report them (remember, now is 2009, the games are at 1992/3, so the demand of that time was a lot lower than what it is today).

First - how the system works

- The system calculates the pax demand based on airport size, and traffic distribution (intl/domestic etc), and uses some of the route data and info about country's other airpots also.

- This method provides reasonable results all over the world but it cannot be accurate for every route.

- That's why the calculation sequence backs up to a route-pair database that has airport to airport route-pair demand information. This database includes some 90 000 different route pairs so far. For example pretty much every US domestic route is there.

- Also the calculation can use a country relation database, where we can set (if no route-pair stats available) how traffic between two countries is. For example US-Cuba could be set to "0.1" while USA-UK could be "2.0". The number is the traffic ratio between all traffic of these two countries.


How to submit more data

- If you spot that a demand between two airports is "wrong" then you can submit some of this route-pair data to us which improved the situation.

- But keep in mind that the focus is not to duplicate the real world passenger routes completely here. Also keep in mind the game year. In 1998 for example the overall passenger travel has been way smaller than in 2008.

- See the top of the demand info page, there you see a small text "Souce". It's either Stats or AWS. If it's based "stats" then we have it, do not submit anything for that route-pair.

- If the current demand that you see is within +/-30% of what do you think it should be, then it is just fine. As the demand display what you are seeing is not 100% accurate either - what is shown to players is an estimate of the true demand..

- If it's more than that ~30% off, then you can submit data to us. Please follow these guidelines:

    - First preference is some REAL statistics from airport authorities, statistical bureaus, aviation administration etc. This overrides all others but is hard to find.

    - Another method is to "guesstimate" the passenger travel on the route. This is based on the number of monthly seats all airlines offer on the route together. Then we assume a 70-75% load factor, and also take into account the year effect (2008->2005 as all game pax stats are from 2006/2005), and we can get a reasonably close demand figure.

    - For example if airlines A and B fly the route, A with 250 seater plane and B with 300 seater plane. Each fly every day in a month. We would calculate as follows:   (250+300)*0.7*0.9  (where 0.7 is the load factor correction, and 0.9 is the pax amount correction from 2008 to 2005 levels to be the same as other stats). So result would be 346.5 pax per day on average and that's the number we want.

   - Please make sure you submit the data in the following, and ONLY in the following format!

Code:
depICAO-arrICAO: paxPerDay
depICAO-arrICAO: paxPerDay
depICAO-arrICAO: paxPerDay
   - So one item per line, airport icao and pax per day. Real example:

Code:
EFHK-EETN: 80.5
EFHK-ESSA: 555.1and so on. Do not include the flights back from the airport, unless the demand is very different. Only one way.


- Send the data via forum PM to me - no other way.

- When submitting data make sure that you tell if it has been counted by you, or based on statistics. In all cases the source(s) must be mentioned.

- Any temporary changes in the 50 year history period like some economic recession affecting only one country or such cannot be modeled with the current system.


The future

In the future .. in the distant future .. the plan is to improve the demand calculation logic so that it does not look for airport to airport demand but rather city to city demand. For this we need a LOT of more information for all airports and cities around the world. For this model the demand will be more influenced what players do. But this is somewhere later on then.

[EduardoMorteo]

Hi! Here's a quote of Sami from another thread. If you find that some route pairs have wrong pax demand, use this way to report them (remember, now is 2009, the games are at 1992/3, so the demand of that time was a lot lower than what it is today).

Jps, thanks for the information!
I´ll take note about the real demand and post here to Sami.

Greetings.

[dazz81]

NZAA/NZCH - is operated in real life about 22 times a day by 737s. DEMAND should be about 2100 pax per day now. game shows 300 a day
NZAA/NZWN - should be 2350 demand. game showing 280.
NZCH/NZWN is wrong too, should be 1500, currently only 180.

[Sami]

I might miss these threads so please read the instructions also:

- Send the data via forum PM to me - no other way.

- When submitting data make sure that you tell if it has been counted by you, or based on statistics. In all cases the source(s) must be mentioned.

But those 3 are copied ...

[Filippo]

Hi,

The rutes out of Milan to South America (Milan to Buenos Aires in particular) are very underestimated. There are about 700 people in every day in real life so how come there is only a request for 180 aproxximately to Buenos Aires? Milan has been underconsidered also on other routes like:

MXP - JFK
      - San Paulo
      - San Francisco
      - Toronto
      - Miami

I hope it can help to inprove the game

Filippo