flight cancellations

Started by Sranan, December 20, 2011, 02:21:31 PM

Sranan

i am wondering if it is normal to have a high % flight cancellations due to scheduling when all of my flights are ~1% probability. i have all spacing between flights listed with the minimum delay time probability of ~1%.

i can understand the cancellations with weather or technical, but most of my cancellations are from schedulling.

anyone else have this issue?

Sanabas

When you say high % of cancellations, what do you mean?

If scheduling accounts for 50% of your cancellations, but your overall cancellation rate is 3%, that means your overall cancellations from scheduling are 1.5%, which isn't a prblem. There's only something wrong if your overall cancellations are high, and lots of them are from scheduling. That shouldn't happen based on the good scheduling you're using.

JumboShrimp

I tested this.  If you look at delays due to scheduling, they are way higher that what you would expect from the number you see on the scheduling.  Forget delays, even cancellations due to scheduling can be higher than what you would expect delays to be.  I even got a cancellation due to scheduling after an A check...

Check out this thread:
https://www.airwaysim.com/forum/index.php/topic,32390.0.html

So the bad news is that the actual delays and cancellations are not going to be what you expect them to be (they will be higher).  The good news is that the actual delays and cancellations are still a function of your scheduling.  So scheduling for low probability of delays will give you better actual delays (cancellations) than scheduling for higher probability of delays.

I think one of the good enhancements in the future might be to actually simulate the aircraft flying, with actual statistical functions generating delays.  As the aircraft is delayed leaving one airport, that delay should result in delay arriving.  Cancelled outgoing flight should automatically cancel the return trip etc.