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Author Topic: A couple of questions  (Read 1175 times)

Offline sanabas

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A couple of questions
« on: December 16, 2019, 06:59:05 AM »
It's been over 6 years since I last played, so I've just jumped back in. Got a couple of quick questions:
city-based demand is only for cargo, correct? How fast will the demand shift? e.g. say potential demand shows as 26t, current demand is 4.3t, and I put 24t on the route. Or potential is 125t, actual 25t, and overall supply is 35t.

Looks like cargo is more profitable overall, IF you can fill the plane. My first two planes were deliberately near identical, 737-8 with 162/0/0 + 4.44t, and 737-8 with the freighter conversion, so 24t capacity. On the same route, a full plane with seats is a potential ~47k in revenue, the freighter a potential 84k, and the pax also cost me landing fees. A 50-55% LF on cargo is equivalent revenue to a full plane of pax. With the downside being there are very few routes that'll take 24t/day in cargo, but plenty that'll take 162 pax/day.

Or for something smaller, comparing a CRJ200, it's 11.3k in 52/0/0 + 550kg cargo vs 22k as a freighter with 6.7t capacity.

So seems like freighters are a decent way to start, and that especially if you're planning on a decent fleet of medium jets, you'll also want to have a dedicated freighter wing as part of that? But a big cargo-only airline may be significantly challenging to build? Could be a fun one though.

Does tech-stop penalty apply to freight?

Has 4th fleet penalty got any better? It used to be the case that as you got bigger, 4th fleet got exponentially more expensive, e.g. at 200 planes, 4th fleet made all fleet costs roughly triple, but at ~800 planes, a 4th fleet would see all fleet costs jump to 10x what they were. Is that still the case?

Offline Talentz

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Re: A couple of questions
« Reply #1 on: December 16, 2019, 07:40:01 AM »
Sup~

Quote
city-based demand is only for cargo, correct?

Yep.
Quote
How fast will the demand shift?

Demand shifts over time. I want to say over a period of 6~ game months. That is, from RI 0. Its possible that cargo shift is tied to RI... I haven't tested that yet.

Quote
Looks like cargo is more profitable overall, IF you can fill the plane.

Generally yes. The most I've made with a freighter is 8.9M per week (748F 7D LH). But that is very rare. Overall, LF above 70% will equal or exceed their pax-only sister in gross revenue.

Quote
So seems like freighters are a decent way to start, and that especially if you're planning on a decent fleet of medium jets, you'll also want to have a dedicated freighter wing as part of that? But a big cargo-only airline may be significantly challenging to build? Could be a fun one though.

Uh.. no. A cargo only start (day 1/new GW) is the toughest option to choose. As of now, I don't know of any player that has won cargo (trans-cargo from start) as a day 1, cargo only airline. Least, I haven't done it in my two and soon to be third win. Not even sure there has been a day 1, cargo-only airline that has survived a long GW...

Cargo is heavily dependent on RI. Under normal circumstances, it takes RI90 to get a full aircraft. About nearly a game year after starting a route. Plus, new GWs have lower cargo demand by design and as such, cargo demand is near impossible low levels for the first year to survive on.

That said, it can and has been done™.

Medium freighters are tough to use as they do not carry HC and struggle to provide enough revenue to become financially independent. Modern times/late era Med Freighters are big enough to be successful. But early start, Jet Aged era birds leave much to be desired.

Quote
Does tech-stop penalty apply to freight?

Nope.

Quote
Has 4th fleet penalty got any better? It used to be the case that as you got bigger, 4th fleet got exponentially more expensive, e.g. at 200 planes, 4th fleet made all fleet costs roughly triple, but at ~800 planes, a 4th fleet would see all fleet costs jump to 10x what they were. Is that still the case?

Pretty much.



Talentz
Co-founder and Managing member of: The Star Alliance Group™ - A beta era, multi-brand alliance.

Offline sanabas

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Re: A couple of questions
« Reply #2 on: December 16, 2019, 07:42:41 AM »
There's also no obvious way to see what sort of cargo demand an airport has? You need to actually get into the route planning and see what's there? e.g. Istanbul, Sydney, Tokyo Narita in 2019 beginner's world all seem to have similar pax demand, all ranked 25-40 on the overall size list. But seem to have 3 very different cargo profiles, ranging from almost nil to some to lots.

And looks like very large freighters aren't so good, as there are very few routes that'll take over 70t/day, and a330/b777 carry 25t of cargo on top of pax anyway?

Offline sanabas

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Re: A couple of questions
« Reply #3 on: December 16, 2019, 07:59:39 AM »
Sup~

Yep.
Demand shifts over time. I want to say over a period of 6~ game months. That is, from RI 0. Its possible that cargo shift is tied to RI... I haven't tested that yet.

Thanks for the reply. I'm doing a quick test in beginner world, have taken note of potential v actual, and will look again over the next couple of days.

Quote
Uh.. no. A cargo only start (day 1/new GW) is the toughest option to choose. As of now, I don't know of any player that has won cargo (trans-cargo from start) as a day 1, cargo only airline. Least, I haven't done it in my two and soon to be third win. Not even sure there has been a day 1, cargo-only airline that has survived a long GW...

Cargo is heavily dependent on RI. Under normal circumstances, it takes RI90 to get a full aircraft. About nearly a game year after starting a route. Plus, new GWs have lower cargo demand by design and as such, cargo demand is near impossible low levels for the first year to survive on.

That said, it can and has been done™.

I do like a challenge. Might be different starting in 1955 or whatever, I feel like it might be a more viable way to start if jumping into the GW that is currently mid-90s.

Just from my first week of BW, so obviously a lot less competition, I have some slightly weird numbers. Zero marketing, CI of 20, my 4 freighter-only routes have RI of 57, 47, 27, 22. My 4 pax routes have RI of 15, 0, 0, 0. All routes have been flown consistently for ~4 days in game.

4 pax routes have LF of 15-22%, profit of $1.7k-$6k. 4 cargo routes have LF of 13-17% on the 2 quite oversupplied routes, 40-50% on the other two for light/medium, both are <5% for heavy, as there's lots of potential but only 0.75t of actual demand, and I'm supplying 6t. The two smaller routes make 8.5 & 16k, the two larger 30 & 40k. Certainly a big difference in instant income, but again, I'd expect routes like that are far harder to find sitting there in a more competitive GW.

The difference in RI given all routes are ~4 days old is very weird though...

Offline Talentz

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Re: A couple of questions
« Reply #4 on: December 16, 2019, 08:17:22 AM »
There's also no obvious way to see what sort of cargo demand an airport has? You need to actually get into the route planning and see what's there? e.g. Istanbul, Sydney, Tokyo Narita in 2019 beginner's world all seem to have similar pax demand, all ranked 25-40 on the overall size list. But seem to have 3 very different cargo profiles, ranging from almost nil to some to lots.

And looks like very large freighters aren't so good, as there are very few routes that'll take over 70t/day, and a330/b777 carry 25t of cargo on top of pax anyway?

Cargo demand is mainly limited to 1st world? highly developed, industrialized nations?  US, Some of Euroland, JP, HK and Taiwan (ask Joe for that one). Outside of that, its a work in progress.

Lg and VLG freighters can carry HC and have the space to carry useful amounts of all types of cargo. Not all VLG pax only aircraft are good at carrying cargo effectively. Their are a number of airports that can justify the largest of freighters.  But yes, you don't use a 747 if you know you cant fill it. Much like any other type.

Its trial and error all over again, to be honest.

Talentz
Co-founder and Managing member of: The Star Alliance Group™ - A beta era, multi-brand alliance.

Offline sanabas

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Re: A couple of questions
« Reply #5 on: December 16, 2019, 09:31:51 AM »
I'm doing a quick test in beginner world, have taken note of potential v actual, and will look again over the next couple of days.

Slightly strange results.

First week, the two big routes saw heavy demand jump from 750 to 2750kg.
To JFK, light & medium are 25-30% over supplied, and jumped by 4-4.5%.
To BOS, light was 20% under-supplied, but actual demand still jumped up 15%. medium was 19% under-supplied, and increased by less than 1%.

To STL, light & medium actual demand is already more than 90% of potential, both moved roughly half the remaining gap. and heavy went from 470 to 1510, potential is 4560.

Those 3 routes all had existing supply before I jumped in, at least for light & medium.

To TUL, all 3 actual demands were at ~55% of potential, and supply was 0. My supply is about 110% of potential. And yet the actual demand dropped by 14-15% in all 3 categories.

And thanks to a misclick, forgetting to move a route by an hour when copying it, I've discovered there's no more adjusting a route by 5 min from 1400 to 1355 for free. 1445 to 1400 was free, 1400 to 1355 means buying a brand new set of slots. Good to remember that one.

 

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