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Author Topic: [-] No Growth in the US (old bug)  (Read 479 times)

Offline JumboShrimp

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[-] No Growth in the US (old bug)
« on: April 26, 2019, 12:39:33 AM »
I am not quite sure it was fixed.  I don't have precise figures, but the growth in the US is no longer 0 or negative as it was before, but it seems it is around 0.5% (estimate) for both pax and cargo.  (GW3)

First of all, it's wrong.  First figure that popped up in google shows +4.1% pax growth in the US for 2019 (vs. last year):
https://www.bts.gov/newsroom/estimated-february-2019-us-airline-traffic-data

Cargo apparently +3.5% (and they call it softening):
https://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/2019-02-06-01.aspx

Second, from playability, the last 20 years of the game are 20 years of stagnation, if nothing happens.

As far as checking this, again, it is impossible for a player to check this, what the growth has been.  Randomization of the Pax demand displayed makes it impossible to check.  Randomization of the displayed pax demand figure is a negative feature.  There is nothing good about it, and everything bad about it.  If a real world airline has flown a route daily for last 25 years, the airline would have exact number of the average demand on the route.

And this randomization of the demand displayed is before the randomization of the actual demand, which is another negative feature....
« Last Edit: April 26, 2019, 12:02:32 PM by Sami »

Offline Sami

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Re: No Growth in the US (old bug)
« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2019, 07:15:58 AM »
For cargo potential in GW3 (pax not considered due to old system):

2006:
KATLKMIA    63430
KFLLKHOU    83580
KJFKKLAX    1273000
KSFOKLAS    47490

2024
KATLKMIA    68320
KFLLKHOU    90880
KJFKKLAX    1385870
KSFOKLAS    50920

+7 to +9% overall. GDP has grown about 19% in the same period.

Since the growth is based on the specs of the country and is not linear relative to the GDP I can't directly say a number without opening the code how much it should grow.

However for a mature (read: wastern) economy the growth in GDP after a certain point produdes only small growth in actual cargo numbers, so for GDP growth of 19% translating to 7-9% growth in demand numbers corresponds to the formula and isn't a bug.

(not taking into account also the game-specific setup modifying this)

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: No Growth in the US (old bug)
« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2019, 11:55:20 AM »
Looking at this particular chart, for example, the relation is opposite.  Each 1% growth of GDP results in 2.5% growth in Air Cargo:


Offline Sami

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Re: No Growth in the US (old bug)
« Reply #3 on: April 26, 2019, 12:01:11 PM »
We're not modelling a growth percentage itself. The model is based on a formula on relation of GDP and freight (/pax) amounts and it's derived from data and forecasts used by the aircraft manufacturers. Though primarily aimed for pax model it's also used for cargo since it's not at this point yet feasible to make totally separate models for them.

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: [-] No Growth in the US (old bug)
« Reply #4 on: April 26, 2019, 12:33:29 PM »
Just one more piece of statistics: long term cargo growth.

This one is from 1980 - 2004  Annualized Cargo growth in the US works out to about 6.5%.  The US GDP growth for the same periods is probably a little less than half that.  Which would be consistent with the Boeing table above approximating 1% of GDP growth to equal 2.5% Cargo growth.

Basing any projection based on period of, say 2006-2016 is basically basing a forecast on a one time anomaly.  There has never been another decade in US history since WW2 that had a recession (deep) followed by years anemic growth.
« Last Edit: April 26, 2019, 12:45:15 PM by JumboShrimp »

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: No Growth in the US (old bug)
« Reply #5 on: April 26, 2019, 12:41:10 PM »
We're not modelling a growth percentage itself. The model is based on a formula on relation of GDP and freight (/pax) amounts and it's derived from data and forecasts used by the aircraft manufacturers. Though primarily aimed for pax model it's also used for cargo since it's not at this point yet feasible to make totally separate models for them.

I see.  But if the approximate pax demand growth is a fraction (about 0.5x) of GDP growth, and cargo demand growth is a multiple (2.5x according to Boeing and also the chart above of the US Bureau of Transportation statistics), we may need separate models.

Offline Talentz

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Re: [-] No Growth in the US (old bug)
« Reply #6 on: April 26, 2019, 07:00:07 PM »
Actually, I think JS has a point as far as the cargo side of demand goes. Separate models are needed, if not already in use. Further, just going by straight historical cargo growth would still leave developing nations at a disadvantage in terms of cargo imports/exports. The main players on the cargo stage will always be on top, no matter what a player does.

Is it at all possible to model airline actions influential to demand growth? If an airline(s) in a country rises to be a world leading or even just having a "national" airline in that country, why can't it be modeled to directly effect GDP/Cargo growth?

Could you create an economic model that takes into effect the actions of an airline and have it directly effect their respective nations growth via a modifier? That would be a huge step towards realism as the effect of an airline on a nation does happen (ie United Arab Emirates)

CBD-Pax changes the game alot in terms gameplay and how the game will be approached, but, in the end, the biggest economies will reign on top. Just probably a slightly different order.

Maybe creating an airline's effect on a nations growth could produce something that didn't follow history?


Talentz
Co-founder and Managing member of: The Star Alliance Group™ - A beta era, multi-brand alliance.

Offline gazzz0x2z

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Re: [-] No Growth in the US (old bug)
« Reply #7 on: April 26, 2019, 09:59:39 PM »
you think I could make Vietnam an economic powerhouse? Interesting, but damn hard to balance properly.

Offline Talentz

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Re: [-] No Growth in the US (old bug)
« Reply #8 on: April 27, 2019, 08:55:27 AM »
you think I could make Vietnam an economic powerhouse? Interesting, but damn hard to balance properly.

Maybe, maybe not. Depends on your definition. Could you make Vietnam rival the USA in terms of GDP? Haha, not a chance. But, you could make Vietnam perform better then historically? If you tried hard enough.

It really is interesting, but balancing really wouldn't be that hard.

I'll make a feature request, so head over there for the details.


Talentz
Co-founder and Managing member of: The Star Alliance Group™ - A beta era, multi-brand alliance.

 

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