Compete vs open new base

[SloLo]

Playing my first game in beginner world. I have about 10 aircraft and I'm pretty much out of routes without resorting to competing with far healthier airlines on over supplied routes. Should I prepare for competition or open a new base at a juicy airport I found with plenty of routes with strong demand and 0 competition?

Note that I have 0 interest in anything but short/medium haul routes. I find long haul aircraft boring in dull. I'm interesting in forging a business based upon regional service with planes I think are cool and able to generate a profit.

Current income after taxes bounces around $750,000 on 10 aircraft. I own 2 and lease the other 8. 2 more new aircraft are on order. 1 is a replacement for the type I started with that is just too hard to source used (Avro RJ) and out of production. The other order will be scheduled for my last limited competition routes that don't involve significant over supply.

[stealy]

What's your weekly profit like? Can you withstand competitions?

Opening a new base with only 10 aircraft seems a bit early to me, but if you found a juicy airport with plenty of demand and little supply, I see no reason why shouldn't open a base there.

[SloLo]

Weekly profit before taxes is about $1 million per month. I have one route where I'm in stiff competition. I think I'm in good position to win that particular route. Competitor is using a fairly large aircraft for  a 300nm route. I'm running 3 turbo prop routes on it and turning a profit with about 75% LPF and taking back the market share on it. Other routes with competition won't be easy. I'm hemmed in by two solid airlines on the other good 300-400 nm routes with competition that have good aircraft for the job on them and much deeper profits by the look of the airline stats.

[gazzz0x2z]

The thing is, while your first open routes have a route image bonus, the next ones don't. So when you open a line, it's gonna lose money for some months before making good money.

The other thing is, when a line has a lot of demand, and a lot of opposition, if you open just one daily flight - and once your route image is high enough - you'll have no difficulties filling the plane. Especially if your plane is smaller than opposition (let's say you fly Avros against 737s, let's say it's a big line with 900 demand and 1200 places covered, you'll fill your first flight after a few months - even with slightly increased prices).

[SloLo]

Thanks for the advice.

I suppose it is best to roll up my sleeves and compete on some of these lines instead of opening that second base airport. The lines I'll be competing on are already oversupplied by competition. Upon closer inspection of my competitors, I'm starting to think a better name for this game world is Seal Clubber World #1.

These are the routes I'm considering opening right now instead of going for new base:
Route 1:
1) Its not my Avros (can hardly find them at all anymore) vs 737s. It will be my ATRs vs 10 E140/E145 flights and 2 A318 flights.
2) The airline i'm competing with makes $ 87.5 in profit per quarter. 30th ranked airline in world. User account register this year--an actual beginner.
3) Avg dem 960. Supply 768.

Route 2:
1) 2 competitors running a combined 7 flights.
2) Competitor 1 is ranked #2 in world with quarterly profits that float near $1 billion. User account is 11 months old (irl time).
3) Competitor 2 isn't much smaller than 1. #7 in world. User account 5 years old (irl time). Hmmm. Still beginner?
4) 2 x A321 flights.
5) 5 x SU95 flights.
6) avg dem 860. supply 839.

Route 3:
1) 1 competitor running a single A321.
2) Dem 260. Supply 185. 
3) Competitor has $1 mil profit last quarter. Ranked #3 in world. User account registered in April.
4) This route is a bit on the long side for my ATR fleet at 525nm.

I plan to use the ATR for all new routes for the time being. I'm slowly phasing out Avro as they are too rare. My company image is at 32.

Please feel free to share thoughts and insights about the routes I've listed above.

[gazzz0x2z]

Honestly, for routes below 1500NM, anything below 125% occupation is ripe for attack. Banzaiiiiiii!!! As you're going ATR, I'd personally put 4 flights on route 1, 2 on route 2, and 3 on route 3. Milage may vary, of course, and don't set up all of them at once. Fill one for each, and then wait for Route Image to grow. Then, as soon as the first flight is around 90% Load factor, frop more flights.

Be patient, and you will be rewarded. Don't try to fill all the demand by yourself ignoring all opposition (this is only done when you're the overlord of the airport and want to dissuade anyone to land there). Remember that you don't need to fill your planes to be profitable. With proper pricing, at 70/80% of load factor, you should thrive.

[SloLo]

Great advice. I'm going to do some battle.