Weird load factor problem when upgrading aircraft

[knobbygb]

Hi.  I just wondered if anybody has noticed this effect before.  Or, maybe I'm just doing something stupid.

See the attached image.  I am in the process of upgrading from 707-320B to DC-8-63 on some long haul routes.  As you can see I have a monopoly on the route and am nowhere near meeting capacity.

My problem is, when I upgrade from a 707 with 3/20/138 standard seating to a DC-8 with 6/25/168 the load factor plumets and even the ACTUAL NUMBER of passengers carried drops (mostly)!

The routes on Monday to Friday in the graph are with the smaller aircraft and these are represented by the top section of load factor figures.  The routes upgraded to DC-8 are Saturday and Sunday and are represented by the lower figures.

I cannot see why the DC-8 wouldn't have the same high load factors as the 707 did.  I have not changed the prices, both have standard seating, they are flying the EXACT same route at EXACTLY the same times (OK, 5 minutes difference).  Actually the DC-8 are brand new and the 707s are now 15 years old so there should be MORE appeal not less.

The route is mature with 100% RI - I have flown it for 12 years.  Nothing else has changed.  I have 90% CI.

The prices are maybe 5% above default - I tried lowering them and it makes no difference.

I know Saturday and Sunday are not the busiest days but that shouldn't make any difference as there are still enough pax to totally fill the aircraft.

As far as I was aware I should basically have totally full aircraft whichever jet I put on the route, up to approx. the maximum demand.

Any ideas?  Maybe there's just a "lag" and the uptake will increase as the larger aircraft have been running for longer (they've been running for about 6 weeks and 2 weeks respectively) But I've not noticed that before.

Weird.

[b757capt]

Hi.  I just wondered if anybody has noticed this effect before.  Or, maybe I'm just doing something stupid.

See the attached image.  I am in the process of upgrading from 707-320B to DC-8-63 on some long haul routes.  As you can see I have a monopoly on the route and am nowhere near meeting capacity.

My problem is, when I upgrade from a 707 with 3/20/138 standard seating to a DC-8 with 6/25/168 the load factor plumets and even the ACTUAL NUMBER of passengers carried drops (mostly)!

The routes on Monday to Friday in the graph are with the smaller aircraft and these are represented by the top section of load factor figures.  The routes upgraded to DC-8 are Saturday and Sunday and are represented by the lower figures.

I cannot see why the DC-8 wouldn't have the same high load factors as the 707 did.  I have not changed the prices, both have standard seating, they are flying the EXACT same route at EXACTLY the same times (OK, 5 minutes difference).  Actually the DC-8 are brand new and the 707s are now 15 years old so there should be MORE appeal not less.

The route is mature with 100% RI - I have flown it for 12 years.  Nothing else has changed.  I have 90% CI.

The prices are maybe 5% above default - I tried lowering them and it makes no difference.

I know Saturday and Sunday are not the busiest days but that shouldn't make any difference as there are still enough pax to totally fill the aircraft.

As far as I was aware I should basically have totally full aircraft whichever jet I put on the route, up to approx. the maximum demand.

Any ideas?  Maybe there's just a "lag" and the uptake will increase as the larger aircraft have been running for longer (they've been running for about 6 weeks and 2 weeks respectively) But I've not noticed that before.

Weird.

Very weird!!!!

[JumboShrimp]

Hi.  I just wondered if anybody has noticed this effect before.  Or, maybe I'm just doing something stupid.

See the attached image.  I am in the process of upgrading from 707-320B to DC-8-63 on some long haul routes.  As you can see I have a monopoly on the route and am nowhere near meeting capacity.

My problem is, when I upgrade from a 707 with 3/20/138 standard seating to a DC-8 with 6/25/168 the load factor plumets and even the ACTUAL NUMBER of passengers carried drops (mostly)!

The routes on Monday to Friday in the graph are with the smaller aircraft and these are represented by the top section of load factor figures.  The routes upgraded to DC-8 are Saturday and Sunday and are represented by the lower figures.

I cannot see why the DC-8 wouldn't have the same high load factors as the 707 did.  I have not changed the prices, both have standard seating, they are flying the EXACT same route at EXACTLY the same times (OK, 5 minutes difference).  Actually the DC-8 are brand new and the 707s are now 15 years old so there should be MORE appeal not less.

The route is mature with 100% RI - I have flown it for 12 years.  Nothing else has changed.  I have 90% CI.

The prices are maybe 5% above default - I tried lowering them and it makes no difference.

I know Saturday and Sunday are not the busiest days but that shouldn't make any difference as there are still enough pax to totally fill the aircraft.

As far as I was aware I should basically have totally full aircraft whichever jet I put on the route, up to approx. the maximum demand.

Any ideas?  Maybe there's just a "lag" and the uptake will increase as the larger aircraft have been running for longer (they've been running for about 6 weeks and 2 weeks respectively) But I've not noticed that before.

Weird.

Is that ORD-TPE?  You must be flying with a tech stop.  You can get a good LF, while flying with a tech stop only if you are supplying only a  small fraction of the demand.  Your bigger aircraft is supplying bigger fraction (on the least busy days), hence, lower LF.

IMO, tech stop penalty should only apply when there is a non-stop competition.  I think it is a bad idea to apply the tech stop penalty on your flight if your flight is the only alternative...

[knobbygb]

You must be flying with a tech stop.  You can get a good LF, while flying with a tech stop only if you are supplying only a  small fraction of the demand.

Yeah I came to the conclusion that it must be to do with the tech stop and I agree with you.  BUT... I would have thought that the percentage of passengers I could get should be based on those available - for example I could get 50% (or whatever) of the available passengers.  It still doesn't explain why I get LESS overall passengers with a bigger plane.  I really think the tech-stop penalty calculations are broken actually.

On a similar note:  I've noticed (or so it seems) that there appears to be a more severe tech-stop penalty for jets than for props.  When upgrading from a 100 seat DC6 to a 130 seat DC8, for example, the load factor (with a tech stop) also plummeted from near 100% to less than 50% even though the overall journey was much quicker.  I think passengers of the time must have expected the new jets to be 'perfect'.  :

[JumboShrimp]

I really think the Tech stop penalty should be relative (to other airline flying non-stop) not absolute.  Your route is a perfect example of you being the only operator on the route, no other non-stop choice is available, so I think the tech stop penalty should not apply.