Question about calculation of low load factors on new routes

Started by esquireflyer, May 16, 2012, 06:00:16 AM

esquireflyer

Newbie question..
Is the low load factor you get when you first open a new route calculated as a % of your available seats, or as a discounted % of the total demand on the route?

For example, if I am opening a medium-long haul route of around 3000 nm, and I am trying to decide between using premium Y or standard Y seats (already using premium C and F).
Will using the standard Y seats allow me to sell more tickets (since i am offering more available seats), or will I sell the same number of seats using premium Y and standard Y? (Or maybe sell more seats using premium Y because it's more comfortable?)

Say for example the demand/day is 200 Y seats.

Is it better to fly 150 standard Y seats, or 110 premium Y seats? Or no difference?

If I am flying with 150 standard Y and only selling around 90 seats per flight, will changing to premium Y lower my ticket sales? Or no difference, since 110 > 90 still?

Thanks!

JumboShrimp

Quote from: EsquireFlyer on May 16, 2012, 06:00:16 AM
Newbie question..
Is the low load factor you get when you first open a new route calculated as a % of your available seats, or as a discounted % of the total demand on the route?

For example, if I am opening a medium-long haul route of around 3000 nm, and I am trying to decide between using premium Y or standard Y seats (already using premium C and F).
Will using the standard Y seats allow me to sell more tickets (since i am offering more available seats), or will I sell the same number of seats using premium Y and standard Y? (Or maybe sell more seats using premium Y because it's more comfortable?)

Say for example the demand/day is 200 Y seats.

Is it better to fly 150 standard Y seats, or 110 premium Y seats? Or no difference?

If I am flying with 150 standard Y and only selling around 90 seats per flight, will changing to premium Y lower my ticket sales? Or no difference, since 110 > 90 still?

Thanks!

Re: LF

LF is a percentage of occupied seats on the flight you are looking at.  It is independent of demand.

Re: premium seats

The ticket price is the same between standard and premium.  So no potential gain there.

Will you get higher LF with premium seats?  Yes.
Will you sell more tickets? No

Meaning, you will make less money with premium seats.  Rule of thumb: don;t use premium seats.  The exceptions to this rule are few and far between....

esquireflyer

Quote from: JumboShrimp on May 16, 2012, 07:01:10 AM
Re: LF

LF is a percentage of occupied seats on the flight you are looking at.  It is independent of demand.
Thanks, JumboShrimp!
I don't think that's really what I'm asking, though. I understand that load factor is calculated as a % of occupied seats on your flight--but it's not actually independent of demand, is it? Higher demand results in higher load factors, and lower demand results in lower load factors (if your # of available seats is constant), right?

I guess what I'm asking is whether the depression of load factors on a new route (due to low image) functions based on your available seats, or based on total demand. Which is why I asked the premium seating question. But if we set aside the premium seating question, I can also phrase the question this way:

If, on a new route, I have a plane with 100 seats, and I am only selling 50 of them (50% LF), and I downsize to a plane of the same speed, same flight times, etc., but which only has 50 seats, will I still sell 50 seats (~100% LF), or will I now sell only 25 seats (~50% LF based on the new capacity)? Or how does it work?

Thanks!
Quote from: JumboShrimp on May 16, 2012, 07:01:10 AM

Re: premium seats

The ticket price is the same between standard and premium.  So no potential gain there.

Will you get higher LF with premium seats?  Yes.
Will you sell more tickets? No

Meaning, you will make less money with premium seats.  Rule of thumb: don;t use premium seats.  The exceptions to this rule are few and far between....
Wait, really? So the info on the config page is not accurate?
Should I still use standard seats on flights of 8+ hours, and it won't affect passengers' willingnes s to buy tickets (total number of tickets sold)?
What about using high density seats then so that I can sell even more tickets?

Also: is it the same for C and F seats? Currently I am able to fill my F and C cabins ~70% using premium seats. If I downgrade to standard seats on these routes (8+ hours long), will I still be able to sell the same number of F/C seats for the same price, and have room for more Y seats on top of it?

Thanks much for the advice. Still trying to figure out the game mechanics here.

JumboShrimp

Quote from: EsquireFlyer on May 16, 2012, 04:00:20 PM
Thanks, JumboShrimp!
I don't think that's really what I'm asking, though. I understand that load factor is calculated as a % of occupied seats on your flight--but it's not actually independent of demand, is it? Higher demand results in higher load factors, and lower demand results in lower load factors (if your # of available seats is constant), right?

Well, yes and no.  When you are starting up, and your RI and CI are near zero, you may have a route with demand of 1000, your supply is 100 and you are the only one flying, you may still have LF of only 50% (especially on longer routes).  It does not really make a lot of sense that 950 out of 1000 pax who want to fly would rather not fly than fly your airline.  But that's how the algorithm works.  That happens early in game worlds...  Later on, the ratio of supply and demand does affect your LFs

Quote from: EsquireFlyer on May 16, 2012, 04:00:20 PM
I guess what I'm asking is whether the depression of load factors on a new route (due to low image) functions based on your available seats, or based on total demand. Which is why I asked the premium seating question. But if we set aside the premium seating question, I can also phrase the question this way:

If, on a new route, I have a plane with 100 seats, and I am only selling 50 of them (50% LF), and I downsize to a plane of the same speed, same flight times, etc., but which only has 50 seats, will I still sell 50 seats (~100% LF), or will I now sell only 25 seats (~50% LF based on the new capacity)? Or how does it work?

See the above.  Low CI and low RI depress demand, and reducing the number of seats (of the same quality seating) will not make a big difference in LF.  As far as changing seats to fewer premium seats?  That's a good question if you can sell more seats that way.  But the way to look at it, the RI of zero is a temporary thing.  It goes away, and soon you are at 100.  At that point premium seats are a money loser, since you wil end up selling fewer seats.

A potential strategy (that I have never explored yet) would be on a heavily oversupplied route.  Suppose a route is oversupplied by a factor of 2x.  So you know that you will selling half the tickets.  How about reducing the number of seats by upgrading the seating to premium seats?  That may actually help you sell more tickets.  I may try it in the future...

Quote from: EsquireFlyer on May 16, 2012, 04:00:20 PM
Thanks!Wait, really? So the info on the config page is not accurate?
Should I still use standard seats on flights of 8+ hours, and it won't affect passengers' willingnes s to buy tickets (total number of tickets sold)?
What about using high density seats then so that I can sell even more tickets?

Some aircraft come with premium C seats as default configuration.  Most players reconfigure them to standard, and sell more tickets as a result.
HD, according to some players allow you to sell more tickets (with of course lower LF).  Works well at short distances.  I would not push it past 1000nm, and especially flying against heavy competition

Quote from: EsquireFlyer on May 16, 2012, 04:00:20 PM
Also: is it the same for C and F seats? Currently I am able to fill my F and C cabins ~70% using premium seats. If I downgrade to standard seats on these routes (8+ hours long), will I still be able to sell the same number of F/C seats for the same price, and have room for more Y seats on top of it?

Thanks much for the advice. Still trying to figure out the game mechanics here.

You may not be able to sell exactly the same number of C/F tickets (you may lose a couple of pax), but selling more Y tickets will more than compensate for it.

esquireflyer