Doing well, but stuck.

[gelatto]

Hey guys    I was wondering, if you would be able to advise and discuss this issue.

So here's the deal:
Tho I jumped in during the first 24 hours of Modern Times 7, I didn't want to start at a large (80-100%) airport. I wanted to pick a significant airport in a good area. I thought if the hub allowed many mediocre demand outes and I would run the only airline based at that airport, I could fill up the demand with no competition and make a very nice profit. Well, it worked like a charm. I started at Damascus, Syria. I'm running the only airline in the country. I'm running something like 12 routes. All with about 180-260 pax demand and no competition. I started off with a relatively big plane (tu-154m). Choosing a Russian plane is supposedly a mistake, but I very quickly got my current AT LEAST 80% loads and started making nice profit. Then I got 3 DC-9-30's. Used 1 to fill rest of the existing route's demand and 2 to open up other routes.

Well the strategy worked perfect. I'm making very nice profit. The leases kick in soon, but they'll only decrease something like 10% of my profit. Load factors perfect. Pricing is at pretty much best point. Company image ok. Route image very nice. Already have more money than the 10 million start-money.

The question is, what am I supposed to do now?
There are couple of unused routes left with 100-210 pax demand I could open with some new lease DC's. And I will do that, but then I'll be "all done".
To finally get to the point, how am i supposed to expand ?

I'll have used up all routes with their demand, I can fly with small or relatively small planes. Flying to a few long destinations (2300nm-5000nm) has decent demand of around 200-250. That's the extent I theoretically can expand. I almost already leased a 707 to fill those couple of long-haul routes, but noticed (SURPRISE SURPRISE!) that the destination airport's slots are completely used up. Tho even if a couple slots would be still open, they would probably cost somewhere around a million or two.

I must be 18 months old and have 15 planes to get another hub.........

Now the real question. In my mind, I
A) either started the game with a wrong strategy, which seems unlikely. Since many recommend it and not to mention it would mean only airlines that start a t large (5) airports can expand and succeed. I can now only go BK and change my strategy COMPLETELY, even tho I am making big profit.
B)I can only fill up the little demand that's still left with maybe a few really small planes and just watch how money floods in. But the same amount every month.
C) I just haven't realized something or don't manage this strategy that well after all. Quite simply, there is a way to expand from this situation.

I would like to point out that my goal is to run a quite big airline. I mean not huge; but fleet of 4 and less than 20 routes is really far from that goal. Tho not that big as to start from a large airport with huge competition right from the start and millions flooding in.

So here's the coconut. How can I crack it? I've been researching routes and stuff for maybe 18 hours, with no luck.

I appreciate your help and comments 

[Belinik]

well.. don't expand too much fleet type, I have taken a look in another world and someone who is based in Damascus and there is a airline with solo base that is running over 70 route pair, his smallest aircraft is a fokker. Perhaps you should look at little bit harder, especially in Europe's smaller airport.

[Sanabas]

Waiting 18 months to open a base won't matter a lot, since the only option you've got is Aleppo.

That said, there is no way you've got Damascus nearly full with just 4 planes. Let's have a look...

You've got 13 airports nearby (<500 NM) that have 50-80 pax each, all empty. Plus 5 more with 2-300, some of which you're flying to.

From 500-1000, there's another 22, all empty, and 50-100 pax. 8 more with 150-200, you're only on 5 of them, and only supplying half demand in each case. There's only 1 competing flight anywhere on those 8 routes.

So if you get something like a Saab 2000 with 50 seats, AN-140, dash 8, F-50, etc, you've got enough demand there for ~20 planes, maybe more.

From 1000-1500, the first 12 results have 150+ pax, and again, you're flying 1, and all the others except one are sitting empty. Quite a few more with 100 or so pax, too, again all empty.

1500-2000, heaps of empty, 2-300 pax routes. Just looking at the 15 biggest results in that distance, every single one of them is 200+ daily pax, every single one of them is empty. Then the next 5 are 100-150 or so, again all empty. There's over 5000 daily pax demand just in those 20. Some are to airports you won't find slots in, sure. Some are in places that are slowly running out of slots, like 300 pax demand to CPH. Some are in places with plenty of slots left, like 300 pax to PMI, or 250 to ALG.

There are lots of LH routes, but they're all around 100 pax. So not a lot of point flying those, unfortunately. Certainly not yet, anyway.

Now the real question. In my mind, I
A) either started the game with a wrong strategy, which seems unlikely. Since many recommend it and not to mention it would mean only airlines that start a t large (5) airports can expand and succeed. I can now only go BK and change my strategy COMPLETELY, even tho I am making big profit.

Strategy seems ok. Planes are thirsty, so you'll want to switch to better fleets before fuel goes really high. But those big profits will help there.

B)I can only fill up the little demand that's still left with maybe a few really small planes and just watch how money floods in. But the same amount every month.
C) I just haven't realized something or don't manage this strategy that well after all. Quite simply, there is a way to expand from this situation.

C is correct. You haven't realised just how much demand there is, and there is a way to expand from your situation. You won't get a quite big airline by some people's standards, but there's no reason you can't end up with 100 planes.

Not trying to be nasty, but can you explain how you've been doing that research for 18 hours? Particularly how you're searching for your routes? It's possible that you've missed something fundamental about how to search for stuff.

[Sanabas]

Oh yeah, one other thing that's pretty important. You need to pay attention to turn times at both ends. your Tupolev is flying:

0600 to Antalya, and turns at Antalya in 90 minutes, for a 1% delay chance. It lands at Damascus at 1025.

1130 to Dubai, turns in 80 minutes for a 10% delay chance. Lands at Damascus at 1920.

2020 to Cairo, turns in 75 minutes for a 14% delay chance.

So, those turns at Dubai & Cairo aren't great, but they could be worse. But look at the 2 turnarounds you actually make at Damascus. 1025-1130 is 65 minutes, that's a 20.6% delay chance. 1920 to 2020 is just 60 minutes, a 23.2% delay chance.

Similarly, flight 106 from Cairo lands at 2105, then flight 107 takes off for Antalya at 2140. That's over 25% chance of a delay.

Fixing those schedules, making sure you're close to those 1% delay chances at both ends, will help you a lot as you get bigger. You've currently got just a 75% rating for punctuality, that's in the bottom 10% of all airlines ingame. That's also a big reason your company image is just 10, less than half what most airlines have already reached.

[Frogiton]

I believe it was in MT5, but there was an airline based out of Uzbekistan. Ended up being one of the biggest airlines in the game, somehow getting to the point where he had a fleet of 200+ planes including a fleet of A380's. If it's popsicle, it's possible.

[Sanabas]

Yeah, UTTT can support 200+ planes, I think. I had 70 there in a DOTM, and plenty of scope for more if it wasn't for the base limitations.

[gelatto]

Thank you very very much for your input 

I get it. Basicly I can get a fleet of even smaller planes (about 50 Y) and fill up that "little" demand at each route I've been overlooking and because there is so much of it, gradually I'll have quite a big airline. I guess I've been just a bit ignorant, thinking you are a large airline only if you have a lot of 200< Y planes in your fleet. And at least some high demand LH routes. Well, I'm going to get that fleet and fill the demand. Then think about this again

You were extremely helpful. I'm going to look at it from a whole new perspective now

[Sanabas]

Thank you very very much for your input 

I get it. Basicly I can get a fleet of even smaller planes (about 50 Y) and fill up that "little" demand at each route I've been overlooking and because there is so much of it, gradually I'll have quite a big airline.

Not quite. You actually don't have that much demand for 50 seaters when compared to a similarly sized airport in Europe or the NE USA. There's enough demand for probably 20-25 planes, but that's about all.

Where you do have a LOT of demand is the 1000-2000 range. More than enough for 50+ 150 seaters. If I had your airline, I'd stick to planes no smaller than 100 seats for now, and when I had more money, I'd be launch customer for the 50 seat AN-140 (Mostly because I really want to use them, super-cheap, they have really good range & speed, but since they don't actually arrive for 7 years, I'll already have built up a big 50 plane fleet before that). So basically, build a fleet of 100-150 seaters. f100, 734, MD80, a320 are the very popular ones. BACs, DC-9, 722, 732 are old & thirsty, but cheap and relatively available. You'll need to replace them by ordering from a new fleet in the next 5 years though. TU-154 are perfect in terms of size, range, price & availability. The only problem is their thirst. But with minimal comp & cheap fuel, you should still make good profits for now.

So, if I were you, I'd be leasing TU-154s and only TU-154s. Making sure of 1% turn times at each end, and trying to keep them working ~24 hours/day. I'd let the 3 DC-9 leases expire. Would do that until I had at least 10 -154s, maybe 20. Depends on cash-flow. Then no more used planes, I'd start ordering brand new MD-90s/MD-90ERs. Not quite as good as a320 or 738, but much easier to get hold of, and a little cheaper. When the MDs start arriving, I'd let the -154 leases start ending, and replace them. After a couple of game years, I'd put in a big order for 20 AN-140s. So then long-term, you can grow to a fleet of 20-30 AN-140s, 50+ MDs, if not bigger.

[Sanabas]

Or, if you want your growth to be slower & less risky, for ~14.5 million (5 planes) you can be launch customer for the MD90, or for your current 9.5 million you can order 3 of them. You can keep your current 7 planes until their leases end, and just order more MDs every time you have a few million in the bank. Slow, steady growth, you'd likely be up to an all-MD, 20 plane fleet in 3 game years, with solid profits. Then you can expand a bit quicker from there.