Finally, I got to terms with economy and scheduling!

Started by Hotcliff, July 18, 2018, 11:16:22 AM

Hotcliff


Again, thanks for your enlightening tutorials gazzz0x2z !  :)

I have been into this Sim for many years but never been soo focused in this Sim since I read your "tutorials" and started all over in GW4 , a bit late but still possible.
I found "virgin" Bratislava CZ at 3/4 and no other airlines. Started to do some European picks, what was left, with CV440's for "the future" ..My mistake no 1! It did turn out to be lucrative at first.
Then looking east, found Arabia and got a few DC7's in there.. I was happy.

When I came to think of your 'scheduling lectures', I realized, my leasing costs were ruining me!
So, yesterday, I made Google's Excel Spreadsheets of all a/c with costs for Maintenance, leasing, fuel, etc which took a while  :-[ Feeling like I was back from retirement an in the job again  :laugh:

Suddenly, I realized, I could do most of these routes with old cheap CV240's, sometimes doubling the routes instead of capacity!  :) So I started cancelling leases, loosing money, but necessary. The lease costs will be 1/3 with CV240's.
I also bought a few a/c cash.

About the DC7's they are needed for Doha, Bahrain, Kuwait etc, so I mix DC7B's with DC7C's.
Trying to replace the most expensive leasing ones.

I am very happy with the results now, making more money but the problem with Bratislava LZIB is that there is no demand for longer distance flights, like India, Africa etc  :-\

Next problem will be entering the Jet Age.. Do you think it is necessary to go there 1967?.
SAS did go for Caravelle's already in 1959 but the range is no good for me. On the other hand they ran their CV440's until 1976 and DC7's until 1967!
"The Metropolitan was bought to replace the DC-3 and Scandia on short-haul flights, as they both lacked pressure cabins. SAS was among the first customers of the CV-440 variant, which at first entered service on the inter-Scandinavian and European hauls, and later moved to domestic services. Towards the end of their service life, most of the aircraft were sold to Linjeflyg. As of 2002 it is the only of SAS' models to never have had a single accident." (Wiki)

Will a route fare become higher in relation to shorter flight time wih jet?

Well, a lot of questions for the future here, but I am happy now, having gained control over the economics  :D It has brought this Sim to a higher level for me.

Gear up/
Hotcliff

schro

In the early days, leasing costs are fairly small compared to revenue, leasing doesn't make a huge impact to the bottom line. As time continues, the relative cost of aircraft will increase compared to revenue.

When switching to jets, you will not get a revenue boost, however, there are cost advantages as you can fly more routes and miles with a single plane. You will see your maintenance, staffing and aircraft acquisition costs go down overall, but your fuel costs will increase (nominally as fuel is cheap in the early days).

gazzz0x2z

I'm playing in Poland in GW2, and the market structure is probably similar. With 2 markets : short routes where a prop is good enough(up to 1000NM, I'd say), and a few destinations around 2000NM(mainly the middle east, though I've found a few ones in the spanish islands). Nothing between those, nothing beyond. So building a fleet structure around those two needs(and deliberately ignoring other markets) seems the sound thing to do.

What I did was, for the short routes, a DC3==>Wayfarer==>IL12==>CV240==>CV440==>F27==>F28==>CRJ route. Note that the F27==>F28 route happened in the early 80s, and did actually harm my profitability. Demand was so overcovered that my laod factors plummetted, and my margins fell down.

In terms pf pure profitability, the only 50-seater jets are not very good. The Y40 is absolute crap, the CRJ200 & ERJ145s are costly for their capability. Bratislava is probably even smaller than Warsaw in terms of a market. I'd even say that my CV440==> F27 transition was forced & hasty, due to planes market conditions. CV440 have one more pilot, but in a low-cost country like eastern Europe, it's not such a big problem, and their sound chapter is good up to 1985. And you probably need a 50-seater more than a 70-seater, so I'd advise you to stick with turboprops on this niche forever. Costs per seat are lower, especially in a low wage country.

For the long routes, I did the B377==>B727==>A320 route. B377 because it was available, though notably inferior to its same era counterparts(but at least I could secure some). B727 and A320 because they can fly safely up to the cool destinations in the middle east. You have a small range of aircraft with similar capabilities(some 737classics, MD80s), but your choice is limited. This is a market where props do not survive, and for a good reason. You'll have to make the transition. I did it in 1970, and it was rather late(but not too late). Profitability exploded after the switch. But those were owned airframes. 727s are rather costly, and leasing them can kill you, forcing you to stick with inferior props for a long time.

The main phenomenon is that you can fly the jet far more. You don't get more money, but expenses are down thanks to owning costs and staff costs notably lower for 50 jets instead of 90 props. This is true on long routes, not that much on small routes, where the speed bonus of jets is not far from negligible.

You've got another problem ; Czekoslovakia is a small market, and there is a big company in Prague. I'm not sure there is place for both of you in the country.

Tha_Ape

Yes, you can last long with props in countries where the staffing costs are low (like Czechoslovakia).
However you can transition to jets as well, but for such a limited capacity airport, I wouldn't really care right now.

Bratislava is and will remain a relatively small airport, unfortunately. Not the best of choice, even for a middle sized airline, but if you get it right it's not a problem. And in the (far) future, you'll be at risk when Slovakia will join the EU, as some bigger airline with much more firepower might come in and compete with you at your expenses. Your best strategy on the longer run would be to dig in really well, stockpile cash and expand to some medium EU airport as soon as you can when Open Skies will kick in.

You'll never be a LH airline, but you can be real good on SH and MH.

As for you SH plane, a 30 to 50 seater will be a necessity. For this one, stick to props. For the larger type, as said above, no need to rush, you can wait for open slots in the DC-9 or 737-200 Adv's prod line. An alliance should get you a really interesting support (both in terms of planes and for strategy advices).

aschack

You seem to be doing alright, assuming the massive loss in the last quarter are from cancelled leases.
I had a look at some of your routes, and it generally looks good. There are some situations where you go and compete on quite oversupplied routes, resulting in pretty low load factors, which I think is a bad idea until you have the financial muscle to enter into these very competitive markets. Examples are Amsterdam, where you supply 80 seats on a route with a demand of 70. Because you fly twice a day, you get 50% of the demand, but that's spread over your two flights. So that's just 18 people per flight. If you had only one flight, you'd only get 1/3rd of the route share, but that's still about 25 people - and you only pay landing fees and slow costs once. There are a couple more of those examples.

Conclusion: It's about profit over load factor. Especially early on. Later on you can start about thinking about load factors, but that'd be only to try to deny direct competitors that load at the cost of your own income.

About fleet plans early on: If you can, lease used and don't really care too much about the age of the airplane. Only the condition. And get the cheapest lease you can. I started a bit before you but also went for leasing CV-240/340/440. There are plenty of them and they're cheap. But I also had an exit strategy for them. That's why I never bought any CV's.
I gathered that within 10 years, I'd be replacing them with owned aircraft. I too did some research (well, I had a spreadsheet beforehand), and settled on the F.27 as they suited my needs for capacity and range, which is a bit similar to the CV's. But this is where the similarities stop. The F.27 requires just 2 pilots and 1 crew as opposed to the 3 pilots and 2 crew of the CV's. On top of that maintenance is quite a lot cheaper on the F.27. Incidentally, they have the same speed and turnaround as the CV's, which makes upgrading the fleet a breeze.
My plan to replace the CV's with F.27s started with me actually leasing new planes, but exclusively with the aim of buying them during the lease. It makes the planes a bit more expensive overall, and I'm not sure if I'd recommend it, but it worked for me. As I expanded to new bases, I kept taking on even more old, lease CV's, and then just kept ordering more and more F.27s as I was in a position to actually pay for them.
Bonus info: When you lease new and you think "Oh, I'll just say it'll be a 15 year lease because that makes lease price much lower and I'll buy it anyway"... don't. Yes, it's cheaper up front, but when you want to buy during a lease period, whatever time is left on the lease period is calculated into the price, and you can easily end up paying 8-9m for an F.27-200.
Also, my plan sort of went the way of the dodo as I started making a lot more money than I had anticipated, so my transitions have been sped up quite a lot, and I'm now operating with three different scenarios for where to go next.

Conclusion: Lease cheap, plan transition to owned airplanes. Remember to also look at personnel requirements and size.

About jets: Be careful. The earliest jets (turbojets) are horrible, cost an arm and a leg, drink fuel like no tomorrow and are expensive to maintain. That makes them very unsuitable for new/small airline.
Then there are the next generation (low bypass turbofans), which are slowly trickling into production now. They're much more efficient and could be worth it. The Caravelle is a sort of generation 1.5, in that it's now turbofans, but it still drinks 1.5x the fuel per passenger of a 727-100. The 2nd generation (727, 737, Lockheed Tristar, DC-9, Fokker F28 etc) are quite good for their time though.
But what do you need? A lot of the routes you fly have quite low demand or enough competition that your share of the demand isn't very high (25-50). The smallest decent jet here is the Fokker F28, which seats 70 people and is actually a medium aircraft (the first actual regional jet in game!), so it's cheaper to operate and has a pretty short turnaround time. You won't get paid more for the flights, but you'll be able to make more flights, because it's faster - especially on flights that aren't just 1-300nm. So if you have a CV doing 3 flights in a day for a total of 1150nm over 17 hours, the F28 will do 1550nm - or 4 flights at a shorter distance. And much longer when it's only two flights in a day.
From what I read, passengers will slowly start to favour jets over props, especially as range increases, so you might get a higher share.

But ultimately, is it the right thing for you? If you have to lease new F28's compared to dirt cheap, old, leased CV's... probably not. If you can buy them it might just be.

As for the DC-7s? I don't think you'll make more money by leasing 727's (if you could, which you likely can't because demand is insane), and it's the only one that can realistically replace it right now. The other jets are far too inefficient (DC-8, Comet etc) or doesn't have the range (Trident, DC-9, 737 etc).

So overall conclusion: You're doing it right in my book. Stick to what you do. Lease cheap (CV's and DC-7s) and fly away. Fill up whatever demand is left at Bratislava and then start looking at another base and do the same. When you have some financial muscle - both cash but definately also income - look at transitioning to an owned fleet and find what's right for you, or start competing with someone at a bigger airport.


gazzz0x2z

Quote from: Tha_Ape on July 18, 2018, 12:21:04 PM
(.../...) For the larger type, as said above, no need to rush, you can wait for open slots in the DC-9 or 737-200 Adv's prod line. An alliance should get you a really interesting support (both in terms of planes and for strategy advices).

I agree with the rest, but DC9s are far too short-legged fo his needs. 737-200Adv are too short for Dubai(where there is opposition, though) and for Doha(where he flies a DC7, currently - he would lose 20% capacity, more or less). Good enough for the rest, from what I saw, it's slightly different from Poland. And smaller than the 727, so more suited to this smaller market.

So yes, once it's possible to own fleet, as aschack rightfully points out, 727-200adv is a very possible choice. I'd bypass the Caravelle for the same reason as DC9s, though : they shine in the range niche where Eastern Europe has no demand. There is no need for an intermediate airplane from there, just a real medium(CV440, F27, whatever), and a real large(2100NM at least, and not too big - I had overlooked the 737-200Adv, but it would be a good choice. Owned, not leased. Lease it and die). DC7s can certainly hold a few more years.

Tha_Ape

Yes, the comments Gazzz made on my post are right on point, as I was doing some all-purpose chit-chat.

From what I read and further thinking about it, one possibility could be to use 3 fleets to better cover the market.
F.27 for small, thin and short haul
F.28 for higher capacity short to medium haul
727-200Adv for thick routes and routes to the Middle East.

It is sure a little complicated, and you should do that only:
- with owned planes
- once you're over 80 planes or so (don't know your actual size).
But that would reduce the number of 727 you'd need, thus costing less (beyond the better targeting I talked about).

In the longer run, there will be more plane options and you'll be able to use only 2 fleet types again.

However, while this could be a clever move, you have to know how to get out of it and plan it carefully. Gazzz and ashack are right: planning is the mist important thing (even though sometimes you have to change your plans at the last minute).
So if you feel that this is getting a little too complicated, F.27/NAMC and 727-200Adv should do the trick
(I say NAMC because it can last long as well, and has more capacity than the F.27, which could come in handy on some routes - but once again I don't have access to the GW so this is a suggestion from a blind man).

gazzz0x2z

Quote from: Tha_Ape on July 18, 2018, 01:24:57 PM
(.../...)
(I say NAMC because it can last long as well, and has more capacity than the F.27, which could come in handy on some routes - but once again I don't have access to the GW so this is a suggestion from a blind man).

That's why I always try to have a mentee in games I'm not playing in. I'd love to have mentors in the games I'm actually playing, too(for an exchange with my mentee, would be cool to have his feedback).

And F28s would be marginally useful at best. Transitioning to them was far from my best move. The amount of things within F28's range and not within the range of F27 is very limited, and can be reached with tech-stopped F27 for a fair amount of time, anyways. The size of NAMC might be also overkill on such a small, competitive market. NAMC are cool, don't get me wrong, but medium-sized Eastern European airports do suffer from thin demand.

Plus, considering his current size, it would be dangerous to stay long above 2 fleet groups. the 3rd flee tgroup is harmless only beyond 70-80 airframes.

Hotcliff

Quote from: schro on July 18, 2018, 12:01:54 PM
In the early days, leasing costs are fairly small compared to revenue, leasing doesn't make a huge impact to the bottom line. As time continues, the relative cost of aircraft will increase compared to revenue.

When switching to jets, you will not get a revenue boost, however, there are cost advantages as you can fly more routes and miles with a single plane. You will see your maintenance, staffing and aircraft acquisition costs go down overall, but your fuel costs will increase (nominally as fuel is cheap in the early days).

Yes. shroe I can see it coming..Also it is very difficult to alter slot times at the main hubs, so it will be a delicate problem  :-\

Hotcliff

Quote from: Tha_Ape on July 18, 2018, 12:21:04 PM
Yes, you can last long with props in countries where the staffing costs are low (like Czechoslovakia).
However you can transition to jets as well, but for such a limited capacity airport, I wouldn't really care right now.

Bratislava is and will remain a relatively small airport, unfortunately. Not the best of choice, even for a middle sized airline, but if you get it right it's not a problem. And in the (far) future, you'll be at risk when Slovakia will join the EU, as some bigger airline with much more firepower might come in and compete with you at your expenses. Your best strategy on the longer run would be to dig in really well, stockpile cash and expand to some medium EU airport as soon as you can when Open Skies will kick in.

You'll never be a LH airline, but you can be real good on SH and MH.

As for you SH plane, a 30 to 50 seater will be a necessity. For this one, stick to props. For the larger type, as said above, no need to rush, you can wait for open slots in the DC-9 or 737-200 Adv's prod line. An alliance should get you a really interesting support (both in terms of planes and for strategy advices).

Thanks for reply Tha Ape,
I know, it was a "long shot" to go for Bratislava, but the longer I am into it, the better I feel :)
The future, I don't want to see right now, other than expanding a bit of long-haul if possible.

Digging in , building artillery defense  :laugh:

/Hotcliff


Hotcliff

#10
Quote from: gazzz0x2z on July 18, 2018, 12:47:53 PM
I agree with the rest, but DC9s are far too short-legged fo his needs. 737-200Adv are too short for Dubai(where there is opposition, though) and for Doha(where he flies a DC7, currently - he would lose 20% capacity, more or less). Good enough for the rest, from what I saw, it's slightly different from Poland. And smaller than the 727, so more suited to this smaller market.

So yes, once it's possible to own fleet, as aschack rightfully points out, 727-200adv is a very possible choice. I'd bypass the Caravelle for the same reason as DC9s, though : they shine in the range niche where Eastern Europe has no demand. There is no need for an intermediate airplane from there, just a real medium(CV440, F27, whatever), and a real large(2100NM at least, and not too big - I had overlooked the 737-200Adv, but it would be a good choice. Owned, not leased. Lease it and die). DC7s can certainly hold a few more years.

Thank you gazz for your reply.
I think I am realizing the same obstacles ahead, but there was no way of going into the main hubs this late in the game for me, so I went for Bratislava, single operator and "let's hope we can build something here"-feeling  :-[

It's a problem with the jet age I see now..I don't want a "gas guzzler 727" here..it will be terrible for my economy. The DC-9 is too short-ranged for my Arabian destinations. I can only find one good spec a/c right now 1965 and it is Comet IV, but does it deliver in the long run??
With r/t history in mind, I am trying to remember what SAS did run here in Sweden at that time, but they were first operators with Caravelle for S/M. They tried DC-8 for L replacement of DC7 but it was very costly and they leased them out to subsidiary Transair, called "Sunjet" for charter Spain  :-\

It is a difficult time age and my thoughts are, trying to fill the cheap CV-240 crates  all across Europe, then keep a few low cost DC-7's for Arabia and N.Africa until the 70's..This is my strategy. I am not trying to become a "Mogul" but jus want to make it right  ;D

Thanks again for all your input  :D

/Hotcliff

Tha_Ape

Quote from: gazzz0x2z on July 18, 2018, 02:24:22 PM
That's why I always try to have a mentee in games I'm not playing in. I'd love to have mentors in the games I'm actually playing, too(for an exchange with my mentee, would be cool to have his feedback).

And F28s would be marginally useful at best. Transitioning to them was far from my best move. The amount of things within F28's range and not within the range of F27 is very limited, and can be reached with tech-stopped F27 for a fair amount of time, anyways. The size of NAMC might be also overkill on such a small, competitive market. NAMC are cool, don't get me wrong, but medium-sized Eastern European airports do suffer from thin demand.

Plus, considering his current size, it would be dangerous to stay long above 2 fleet groups. the 3rd flee tgroup is harmless only beyond 70-80 airframes.

And that's why I put a lot of "ifs" in that post ;)
About the F.28, the Mk 3000 now has an increased capacity (auto-congratulation :laugh:), so it might be more useful than before.
But once again, on this matter (GW#4), you have a better position than I have.

Tha_Ape

Quote from: Hotcliff on July 18, 2018, 03:16:08 PM
Thank you gazz for your reply.
I think I am realizing the same obstacles ahead, but there was no way of going into the main hubs this late in the game for me, so I went for Bratislava, single operator and "let's hope we can build something here"-feeling  :-[

It's a problem with the jet age I see now..I don't want a "gas guzzler 727" here..it will be terrible for my economy. The DC-9 is too short-ranged for my Arabian destinations. I can only find one good spec a/c right now 1965 and it is Comet IV, but does it deliver in the long run??
With r/t history in mind, I am trying to remember what SAS did run here in Sweden at that time, but they were first operators with Caravelle for S/M. They tried DC-8 for L replacement of DC7 but it was very costly and they leased them out to subsidiary Transair, called "Sunjet" for charter Spain  :-\

It is a difficult time age and my thoughts are, trying to fill the cheap CV-240 crates  all across Europe, then keep a few low cost DC-7's for Arabia and N.Africa until the 70's..This is my strategy. I am not trying to become a "Mogul" but jus want to make it right  ;D

Thanks again for all your input  :D

/Hotcliff

Tut-tut-tut!
Do not try to replicate what airlines did IRL :)
This would be a huge mistake. Unless you have the perfect market and great skills, but I'm not sure those requirements are met (not even talking Slovakia vs all Scandinavia).

The 727 burns more than the DC-9 or 737 (I prefer the 737), but it's still very good. Actually, in GW#2 (now 2003), there are still 350 727-200Adv and 150 727-200AF in service. This might be a little extreme (unless backed by a strong strategy), but using them until the mid 90s is completely ok.

If Gazzz says that F.27 + 727 is a good choice, I tend to believe him. I proposed another strategy, but more risky and with less data. You could probably find another one (there's never only one solution to global matters, in this game), but pay attention ;)

Hotcliff

#13
Quote from: aschack on July 18, 2018, 12:41:16 PM
You seem to be doing alright, assuming the massive loss in the last quarter are from cancelled leases.
I had a look at some of your routes, and it generally looks good. There are some situations where you go and compete on quite oversupplied routes, resulting in pretty low load factors, which I think is a bad idea until you have the financial muscle to enter into these very competitive markets. Examples are Amsterdam, where you supply 80 seats on a route with a demand of 70. Because you fly twice a day, you get 50% of the demand, but that's spread over your two flights. So that's just 18 people per flight. If you had only one flight, you'd only get 1/3rd of the route share, but that's still about 25 people - and you only pay landing fees and slow costs once. There are a couple more of those examples.

Conclusion: It's about profit over load factor. Especially early on. Later on you can start about thinking about load factors, but that'd be only to try to deny direct competitors that load at the cost of your own income.

About fleet plans early on: If you can, lease used and don't really care too much about the age of the airplane. Only the condition. And get the cheapest lease you can. I started a bit before you but also went for leasing CV-240/340/440. There are plenty of them and they're cheap. But I also had an exit strategy for them. That's why I never bought any CV's.
I gathered that within 10 years, I'd be replacing them with owned aircraft. I too did some research (well, I had a spreadsheet beforehand), and settled on the F.27 as they suited my needs for capacity and range, which is a bit similar to the CV's. But this is where the similarities stop. The F.27 requires just 2 pilots and 1 crew as opposed to the 3 pilots and 2 crew of the CV's. On top of that maintenance is quite a lot cheaper on the F.27. Incidentally, they have the same speed and turnaround as the CV's, which makes upgrading the fleet a breeze.
My plan to replace the CV's with F.27s started with me actually leasing new planes, but exclusively with the aim of buying them during the lease. It makes the planes a bit more expensive overall, and I'm not sure if I'd recommend it, but it worked for me. As I expanded to new bases, I kept taking on even more old, lease CV's, and then just kept ordering more and more F.27s as I was in a position to actually pay for them.
Bonus info: When you lease new and you think "Oh, I'll just say it'll be a 15 year lease because that makes lease price much lower and I'll buy it anyway"... don't. Yes, it's cheaper up front, but when you want to buy during a lease period, whatever time is left on the lease period is calculated into the price, and you can easily end up paying 8-9m for an F.27-200.
Also, my plan sort of went the way of the dodo as I started making a lot more money than I had anticipated, so my transitions have been sped up quite a lot, and I'm now operating with three different scenarios for where to go next.

Conclusion: Lease cheap, plan transition to owned airplanes. Remember to also look at personnel requirements and size.

About jets: Be careful. The earliest jets (turbojets) are horrible, cost an arm and a leg, drink fuel like no tomorrow and are expensive to maintain. That makes them very unsuitable for new/small airline.
Then there are the next generation (low bypass turbofans), which are slowly trickling into production now. They're much more efficient and could be worth it. The Caravelle is a sort of generation 1.5, in that it's now turbofans, but it still drinks 1.5x the fuel per passenger of a 727-100. The 2nd generation (727, 737, Lockheed Tristar, DC-9, Fokker F28 etc) are quite good for their time though.
But what do you need? A lot of the routes you fly have quite low demand or enough competition that your share of the demand isn't very high (25-50). The smallest decent jet here is the Fokker F28, which seats 70 people and is actually a medium aircraft (the first actual regional jet in game!), so it's cheaper to operate and has a pretty short turnaround time. You won't get paid more for the flights, but you'll be able to make more flights, because it's faster - especially on flights that aren't just 1-300nm. So if you have a CV doing 3 flights in a day for a total of 1150nm over 17 hours, the F28 will do 1550nm - or 4 flights at a shorter distance. And much longer when it's only two flights in a day.
From what I read, passengers will slowly start to favour jets over props, especially as range increases, so you might get a higher share.

But ultimately, is it the right thing for you? If you have to lease new F28's compared to dirt cheap, old, leased CV's... probably not. If you can buy them it might just be.

As for the DC-7s? I don't think you'll make more money by leasing 727's (if you could, which you likely can't because demand is insane), and it's the only one that can realistically replace it right now. The other jets are far too inefficient (DC-8, Comet etc) or doesn't have the range (Trident, DC-9, 737 etc).

So overall conclusion: You're doing it right in my book. Stick to what you do. Lease cheap (CV's and DC-7s) and fly away. Fill up whatever demand is left at Bratislava and then start looking at another base and do the same. When you have some financial muscle - both cash but definately also income - look at transitioning to an owned fleet and find what's right for you, or start competing with someone at a bigger airport.

Thanks my friend!
This is the most inspiring reply I ever got in AwySim!  :D You really did look into my routes and everything and I appreciate your comments very much.
I think the same..
"Fill up whatever demand is left at Bratislava and then start looking at another base and do the same"

Time waits for no-one (Rolling Stones) but sometimes it is best to let time pass, in order to make the right decision  ;)

I will go on replacing all of my CV440's with CV240's, that is a start..

About the long-haul DC7's I can not see a good solution yet..so we plod on with our 4x Wright R3350-18EA4 until a better solution comes up..You know..All jets and recip operate at the same principle.."Suck and squeeze, Blow and Go"  ;D

We bide our time a few years here..I am sure there a lot of beautiful women in Bratislava!  :)
You really makes me go "All in"!
Cheers and gear up!

/Hotcliff


Hotcliff

Quote from: Hotcliff on July 18, 2018, 11:16:22 AM
Again, thanks for your enlightening tutorials gazzz0x2z !  :)

I have been into this Sim for many years but never been soo focused in this Sim since I read your "tutorials" and started all over in GW4 , a bit late but still possible.
I found "virgin" Bratislava CZ at 3/4 and no other airlines. Started to do some European picks, what was left, with CV440's for "the future" ..My mistake no 1! It did turn out to be lucrative at first.
Then looking east, found Arabia and got a few DC7's in there.. I was happy.

When I came to think of your 'scheduling lectures', I realized, my leasing costs were ruining me!
So, yesterday, I made Google's Excel Spreadsheets of all a/c with costs for Maintenance, leasing, fuel, etc which took a while  :-[ Feeling like I was back from retirement an in the job again  :laugh:

Suddenly, I realized, I could do most of these routes with old cheap CV240's, sometimes doubling the routes instead of capacity!  :) So I started cancelling leases, loosing money, but necessary. The lease costs will be 1/3 with CV240's.
I also bought a few a/c cash.

About the DC7's they are needed for Doha, Bahrain, Kuwait etc, so I mix DC7B's with DC7C's.
Trying to replace the most expensive leasing ones.

I am very happy with the results now, making more money but the problem with Bratislava LZIB is that there is no demand for longer distance flights, like India, Africa etc  :-\

Next problem will be entering the Jet Age.. Do you think it is necessary to go there 1967?.
SAS did go for Caravelle's already in 1959 but the range is no good for me. On the other hand they ran their CV440's until 1976 and DC7's until 1967!
"The Metropolitan was bought to replace the DC-3 and Scandia on short-haul flights, as they both lacked pressure cabins. SAS was among the first customers of the CV-440 variant, which at first entered service on the inter-Scandinavian and European hauls, and later moved to domestic services. Towards the end of their service life, most of the aircraft were sold to Linjeflyg. As of 2002 it is the only of SAS' models to never have had a single accident." (Wiki)

Will a route fare become higher in relation to shorter flight time wih jet?

Well, a lot of questions for the future here, but I am happy now, having gained control over the economics  :D It has brought this Sim to a higher level for me.

Gear up/
Hotcliff

SAMI, why don't you employ 'gazzz0x2z' as a Moderator and Tutorial Grand Master?  :)
This Sim really need a lot of input, due to the steep learning curv..He has really made me come back and go "All in"  ;D

/Hotcliff

Hotcliff

Quote from: Tha_Ape on July 18, 2018, 12:21:04 PM
Yes, you can last long with props in countries where the staffing costs are low (like Czechoslovakia).
However you can transition to jets as well, but for such a limited capacity airport, I wouldn't really care right now.

Bratislava is and will remain a relatively small airport, unfortunately. Not the best of choice, even for a middle sized airline, but if you get it right it's not a problem. And in the (far) future, you'll be at risk when Slovakia will join the EU, as some bigger airline with much more firepower might come in and compete with you at your expenses. Your best strategy on the longer run would be to dig in really well, stockpile cash and expand to some medium EU airport as soon as you can when Open Skies will kick in.

You'll never be a LH airline, but you can be real good on SH and MH.

As for you SH plane, a 30 to 50 seater will be a necessity. For this one, stick to props. For the larger type, as said above, no need to rush, you can wait for open slots in the DC-9 or 737-200 Adv's prod line. An alliance should get you a really interesting support (both in terms of planes and for strategy advices).

Is it good to be in an Alliance? I have no idea yet..

Hotcliff

Quote from: gazzz0x2z on July 18, 2018, 12:15:26 PM
I'm playing in Poland in GW2, and the market structure is probably similar. With 2 markets : short routes where a prop is good enough(up to 1000NM, I'd say), and a few destinations around 2000NM(mainly the middle east, though I've found a few ones in the spanish islands). Nothing between those, nothing beyond. So building a fleet structure around those two needs(and deliberately ignoring other markets) seems the sound thing to do.

What I did was, for the short routes, a DC3==>Wayfarer==>IL12==>CV240==>CV440==>F27==>F28==>CRJ route. Note that the F27==>F28 route happened in the early 80s, and did actually harm my profitability. Demand was so overcovered that my laod factors plummetted, and my margins fell down.

In terms pf pure profitability, the only 50-seater jets are not very good. The Y40 is absolute crap, the CRJ200 & ERJ145s are costly for their capability. Bratislava is probably even smaller than Warsaw in terms of a market. I'd even say that my CV440==> F27 transition was forced & hasty, due to planes market conditions. CV440 have one more pilot, but in a low-cost country like eastern Europe, it's not such a big problem, and their sound chapter is good up to 1985. And you probably need a 50-seater more than a 70-seater, so I'd advise you to stick with turboprops on this niche forever. Costs per seat are lower, especially in a low wage country.

For the long routes, I did the B377==>B727==>A320 route. B377 because it was available, though notably inferior to its same era counterparts(but at least I could secure some). B727 and A320 because they can fly safely up to the cool destinations in the middle east. You have a small range of aircraft with similar capabilities(some 737classics, MD80s), but your choice is limited. This is a market where props do not survive, and for a good reason. You'll have to make the transition. I did it in 1970, and it was rather late(but not too late). Profitability exploded after the switch. But those were owned airframes. 727s are rather costly, and leasing them can kill you, forcing you to stick with inferior props for a long time.

The main phenomenon is that you can fly the jet far more. You don't get more money, but expenses are down thanks to owning costs and staff costs notably lower for 50 jets instead of 90 props. This is true on long routes, not that much on small routes, where the speed bonus of jets is not far from negligible.

You've got another problem ; Czekoslovakia is a small market, and there is a big company in Prague. I'm not sure there is place for both of you in the country.

I am not sure when the CRJ enters the scene but I think it was in the 90's.. I loved the Canadair, its predecessor in the 80's  and was also engaged in a business with Canadair Challenger.. But at my point of view..it's 30 yrs ahead  ;D

Hotcliff

Quote from: gazzz0x2z on July 18, 2018, 12:47:53 PM
I agree with the rest, but DC9s are far too short-legged fo his needs. 737-200Adv are too short for Dubai(where there is opposition, though) and for Doha(where he flies a DC7, currently - he would lose 20% capacity, more or less). Good enough for the rest, from what I saw, it's slightly different from Poland. And smaller than the 727, so more suited to this smaller market.

So yes, once it's possible to own fleet, as aschack rightfully points out, 727-200adv is a very possible choice. I'd bypass the Caravelle for the same reason as DC9s, though : they shine in the range niche where Eastern Europe has no demand. There is no need for an intermediate airplane from there, just a real medium(CV440, F27, whatever), and a real large(2100NM at least, and not too big - I had overlooked the 737-200Adv, but it would be a good choice. Owned, not leased. Lease it and die). DC7s can certainly hold a few more years.

Yes, I admit..I made a major mistake, ordering 12 DC-9-10's! Thinking I was doing good for the future..but I did not see the overall economy and thought the jets would make my airline grow faster.. :-[

Lesson 1 learned  :laugh:



aschack

Quote from: Hotcliff on July 18, 2018, 03:43:47 PM
Thanks my friend!
This is the most inspiring reply I ever got in AwySim!  :D You really did look into my routes and everything and I appreciate your comments very much.
I think the same..
"Fill up whatever demand is left at Bratislava and then start looking at another base and do the same"

Time waits for no-one (Rolling Stones) but sometimes it is best to let time pass, in order to make the right decision  ;)

I will go on replacing all of my CV440's with CV240's, that is a start..

About the long-haul DC7's I can not see a good solution yet..so we plod on with our 4x Wright R3350-18EA4 until a better solution comes up..You know..All jets and recip operate at the same principle.."Suck and squeeze, Blow and Go"  ;D

We bide our time a few years here..I am sure there a lot of beautiful women in Bratislava!  :)
You really makes me go "All in"!
Cheers and gear up!

/Hotcliff

Thank you for the kind words. No shame in sticking with the DC-7s. I'm running IL-18s until I get my 727s delivered, and that's only because I can actually afford to buy 727s.
About what others have said about F27, F28, 737 and DC-9 and indeed NAMC... it all depends on where you are. You're in a small airport where most <1000nm routes are ~50 pax a day, from what I can see, with some that are higher. So going from where you are now, with CV's and DC-7s, here are my thoughts.
The DC-9 can only carry bit more passengers a bit farther compared to the F28, but it's a large plane, so longer turnaround and higher costs. Eventually it'll rival the 737 for capacity. So it doesn't solve any problems you have. You don't need the capacity on the short routes.
The 737 is even bigger, not far from the early 727, but lacks the range. So it's even worse than the DC-9 in that respect.
The F27 and F28 have similar range (until the F28-4000), are both medium and the F28 is only slightly bigger than the F27. That's why in my case, where I am (because I have a bit more demand than you while also quite some competition), it's a good replacement for the F27. As for you, I'm not sure it's a good idea because capacity is too high.
The NAMC has nearly as much capacity as the F28 and the speed of the F27. But it doesn't quite have the range. So it might be a good option if you need the capacity, and not if you need the range.

In conclusion: If you plan on sticking to Bratislava for now, stick to turboprops with ~50 pax capacity.

And really: Keep expanding. That's where the money is. More planes, more routes. :)

Tha_Ape

Actually, the Il-18 might be a good choice. Also, it can last quite a long while (considering CZ salaries are relatively low). It's one of the best Soviet birds around, if not the best. Plus, slightly smaller capacity (good for Bratislava) and very nice range.
Gazzz, your opinion ?

@ashack: the 737-100 and -200 are quite lame, but the -200Adv is pretty good. Used it with great success in the range-needing USSR. Given competition is ok, you can push it to 2200 or 2250 nm and stay profitable (except maybe during the 2nd spike, but not by much).