Conditional adjustment for the global route pricing tool.

Started by qunow, March 26, 2017, 01:09:47 AM

qunow

Currently, the global route pricing tool allow players to adjust prices base on "? class" "+/-" "?%", which is quite powerful
However, I think the tool would be more useful if it allow users to operate it with extra conditions, for instance the tool could allow users to select only apply suchu adjustment to route with certain class load factor up to or less than certain percent, and/or route image up to or less than certain percent, and/or routes that are connecting/within certain country/region, and/or current price less/more than baseline price by certain percent, etc.. Perhaps also let players to apply different conditions above as once.


JumboShrimp

#2
Quote from: qunow on March 26, 2017, 01:09:47 AM
Currently, the global route pricing tool allow players to adjust prices base on "? class" "+/-" "?%", which is quite powerful

+/- from what?

Before you go out of your way to waste time on individual pricing adjustment, basically, you have zero idea about what is going on with the current pricing.  You see some number that you may adjust it from, but you don't know what that number represents. 

Unless you open number of different windows/tabs to figure out what that number represents.  Meaning, you can in separate window calculate the default price than compare it to your current price, and only then you will find out: "Oh, I am at 97% of the default price"

So that's just one.  you may 300 more routes to go...

Quote from: qunow on March 26, 2017, 01:09:47 AM
However, I think the tool would be more useful if it allow users to operate it with extra conditions, for instance the tool could allow users to select only apply suchu adjustment to route with certain class load factor up to or less than certain percent, and/or route image up to or less than certain percent, and/or routes that are connecting/within certain country/region, and/or current price less/more than baseline price by certain percent, etc.. Perhaps also let players to apply different conditions above as once.

So, for example, you are flying a route and so is one other competitor.  His aircraft is in C/D check, not flying.  Your LF is now 100%, rather than 55% when your competitor was flying.  You want to make one time pricing adjustment based on that?

Also, there is no ability to set the price as a formula.  So more you tinker with your pricing system, the more screwed up it will get, until you eventually throw your hands up in the air, and do a global reset.  :)

gazzz0x2z

Pricing is insanely complex, and the right price for each line depends on a big amount of factors. I'm myself a price micromanager(that's why I'm playing only one GW, it's very much time consuming). I'm currently number one in GW3 in terms of pretax profit. Even counting the fact that I've been blessed by limited opposition in my headquarters, I still think I did prove that my way of playing the game is not completely irrelevant.

The first difference is between lines with opposition, an lines without. Lines without opposition are plain simple : raise up prices until you reach a sweet spot. I tend to set up my sweet spot around 91% in standard seating, and 94% in economic seating. I've had too many bad surprises aiming for 85%, even if it's the theoric best. Note that if you fly 126-seaters, you'll make more money per flight with 2 birds on a 250-demand route than with one bird on a 125-demand route.

But, and that's a big but, if I'm below the sweet spot, unless I'm blatantly overpriced, I don't reduce prices. My experience is that between 60% and 92% of LF, the income difference is not big enough to deserve an effort. Another big but : depending on your seating, and on your CI, pricing business and first seats won't follow the same rules. with a 120-5 demand line and a 120-5 airplane, the sweet spot might be +35% for economic, and +70% for business(for standard seats, extravagant CI).

Of course, check wether one of your planes is in check right now. This is a common trap.

Another trap : the base price, against everything is calculated, depends on costs. Costs are fuel costs dependant(don't raise price tickets if the fuel prices are about to fall soon), and country dependant(you don't price London City and Ohrid the same, even for the same distance, demand, and airplane - costs are vastly different - I made the mistake quite a few times with my CRJs before understanding this).

When you have opponents, real fun begins. Because you are clouded. You don't know what are the prices of your opponents, and those may vary a lot. You might have one opponent flying Q400 with high prices, another one with a few E120 that you can't fight back, and another one with 737-800 waging a price war against you. And you have to decide your goal. Do you aim for short-term profitability? That's the case for me, most of the time. Then it's better to slightly overprice your opponents. You measure it by your LF. If your LF is slightly inferior to what it should be considering the frequencies, then you're not far from the truth. You'll make more money, and will not tempt them to enter a deadly price war. Do you want to defend yourelf against an attacking opponent? then reduce your prices, but be warned that it will cost you FAR MORE than what it will cost your opponent. Especially if his lines are hidden behind other people.

In my example, the 737-800 owner is probably stupid to wage a price war, unless most of the capacity is shared between you and him. Even like that, he'd better be much more powerful than you. He'll lose a lot of money, and if you don't follow him in very low prices, you'll lose only a relative amount of money. The bloodbath begins when both players are driving prices down.

All that to say that more accurate price management tools might be interesting, but never consider them as ultimate. Either you want to babysit all your route pairs(I've got 1240 currently, it's quite a big effort, and it's only a beginning), or the current tools are "far enough for a hand grenade", as Schro often says(and he's better than me at this game, as good as I might be). Intermediate tools might give you a false impression of perfect control, which is far from the truth. Each line is unique, and generalities might not apply. If at this base, half of your flights are underpriced, and the other half under heavy attack, no tool is going to help you.

P.S. : I do not micromanage day-per-day, of per flight within a same route. Too much hassle. I'm sure you can gain one or two points of profitability with each. Especially on LH for different prices between the friday and saturday, and for very high demand short routes, where the 0500 flight has to be far cheaper than the other ones.

JumboShrimp

I think the first step to fixing the pricing would be to have an option to "Set Price To" from the current "Increase / Decrease From" (an unknown).

So for example, with ability to Set Price To for example, "Default + 5%", we would have a basis for a workable system.  Then, we could start talking about filters, and based on those filters, we could start setting prices.

With the inflation or previous tinkering by player, we lose track of where we are starting from - the Unknown in 1st paragraph, any kind of price management is an exercise of futility for larger airlines.

Regarding cost:

Quote from: gazzz0x2z on March 29, 2017, 08:53:02 AM
Another trap : the base price, against everything is calculated, depends on costs. Costs are fuel costs dependant(don't raise price tickets if the fuel prices are about to fall soon), and country dependant(you don't price London City and Ohrid the same, even for the same distance, demand, and airplane - costs are vastly different - I made the mistake quite a few times with my CRJs before understanding this).

The passengers don't know your cost, and neither really do you (the player).  It is extremely hard to calculate exact cost of a flight, nearly impossible.  For example, if the flight is on an aircraft with 9 hour / day utilization, it will be massively more expensive than if it is on an aircraft with 18 hour / day utilization.

But we have a perfect proxy for cost: Default Price.  The system currently has an excellent way of calculating the Default Price to be some percentage above a normalized cost.  A player can derive roughly the cost of the flight by taking into account player specific variables, such as type of aircraft, aircraft utilization, labor costs in country where the player operates.

So the system already has a perfect proxy - Default Price - which additionally is also inflation adjusted constantly - so all the pricing should start with that as a baseline.

qunow

Quote from: JumboShrimp on March 30, 2017, 05:03:31 PM
I think the first step to fixing the pricing would be to have an option to "Set Price To" from the current "Increase / Decrease From" (an unknown).

So for example, with ability to Set Price To for example, "Default + 5%", we would have a basis for a workable system.  Then, we could start talking about filters, and based on those filters, we could start setting prices.
You can currently do this by setting the price to default before raising/dropping the price from that

JumboShrimp

Quote from: qunow on March 30, 2017, 07:46:58 PM
You can currently do this by setting the price to default before raising/dropping the price from that

True, you can do it globally this way.  And that's the only way I do it any more.

You can do it individually on route by route bases, but there is no feedback (you don't really know you have succeeded) and the most convenient page to do this from (Manage Routes -> Destination view) refreshes after you have set the price, result of which is that you lose your place.