When to stop leasing used aircraft?

[Pilot Jeb]

As the title suggest; how do you know when to stop purchasing used aircraft via leases? For context; currently have 60 aircraft (all leased/used) and average about 6 million per week operating profit. Is there a point in time where I should just start saving up to purchase new aircraft in full?

An aside question; when is a good time to expand air bases? I usually just do it at random, but is there some kind of strategy to be successful with expanding?

Thanks all!

[groundbum2]

the games all about cash flow. And the largest expense is fuel. So make sure you understand the next decade of fuel prices, and how that will affect cash flow. In other words if there is a fuel spike in 3 years time, then it's time to conserve cash and get ready to ride it through whilst hoping your competitors BK all around you. So the time to switch from lease to buy is when you know you have secure cash flow that no other player can damage,

Which leads to your second question. You need to totally dominate your HQ. It's no good having 50 planes then moving onto the next base. If you leave routes looking attractive to other airlines then somebody will move in and hurt your cash flow. So totally utterly dominate your base, I typically want to supply 100% of demand (so 1000 pax/day demand, I'd like to supply 1000 pax/day on my planes) to the first 3 or more pages of routes. So any competitor looking to move to any of your bases, especially the HQ, looks at a few routes and think nahhhh too difficult, and goes elsewhere. Be aware of people with small and medium planes moving in and undercutting your large planes. Biggest mistake is to put 777/747s on a route then finding flocks of 330s killing you with frequency. Ditto E190s vs A321s etc.

Hope this helps,

Simon

[groundbum2]

oh yeah, the other time to buy rather than lease is when you know you'll fly the plane for at least 15 years. Often we have temporary fleets of whatever we can grab until the cash starts coming in and we're getting nearer the end of the game and we can settle down to the final 3 fleets.

[schro]

In general, once you max out your ability to add planes/expand based on current cashflow (and cash starts piling up), that's when you want to start buying vs leasing. At first, you may start with well priced used market examples, but eventually snowball a 20% down payment on a 40 plane order. Of course, you should be present in leasing on your 3 types' production lines - you'll switch them over to 40x purchases as your income grows. Just have to watch to make sure you can afford the other 80% when it's time to pay the piper...

[DutchBlond]

The lease / Buy choice needs to be part of a strategy, and needs many factors to work, in my view.

Without assets, your Airline will score less and rarely rise above CCC.
Starting a game, we all lease 1-2 types large aircraft, short and Med / Long haul. So choose carefully with a decent range on each.
Combine a large medium haul route, that is in high demand, and can return in around 24 hrs.
Have a dense seating to start with, Biz and Economy on a large say 763, to maximise yr income, on 1 return flight.

Many short haul or domestic flights income will never equal a large plane, medium haul, using a single pair of slots daily.
Higher income from Pax and also Cargo, less costs, higher yield quickly if a lucrative  route, not provided by others. no one else really picks up.
Think outside the box from others, and locate a good demand destination,

A player getting return on a medium haul route, large plane, dense seating biz and Y, one return daily, will be more profitable than 3 domestic or short hauls on a smaller aircraft. You spend less with just 1 not 3 slots etc and all 1 trip add ons.

Loans - Pay off off loans completely, chipping away,  even $250,000 at time you get there slowly.


Then, buy a large aircraft ASAP with the cash you have. Then your Airline has an asset on the balance sheet.
You also save say $6-10 Million, per year on an one aircraft lease.
This in itself gives investment in yr assets, and reduces your outgoings with less leasing costs.
It is a certain win to increase yr score also.

My Profit in a just begun beginners short game, is currently $24 M a week profit with just 24 Aircraft, but owning 7 gives me this.
I have kept  to only 2 aircraft types, but large Aircraft to maximise passenger number, and Cargo capability, in 1 return daily.

Marketing less routes, but the ones i have are highly profitable around 4000 miles, and can make daily runs. Less marketing needed, but go full on as you open with marketing that route quickly to get its reputation up to 100.

This reduces the slots needed,  757s and 767s, (plenty combo's to choose from) so medium or up to about 6,500 miles distance capability.
So the larger the aircraft, fewer slots on a route to purchase, but captures a higher % of seats for you to take also.
One return flight from Australia to Asia, can earn over $450,000!

However a mix of some leases, ownership of younger aircraft of the main type you intend for the longest time (Youngest aircraft), is better.

Undervalued aircraft -I purchase aircraft that are UNDER valued, or need maintenance, and i do a C check before delivery.
right away.
Selling the odd aircraft later can be a lifesaver in hard times!

I also lease an old Cargo only plane once i get going. You could pick up a high demand route for Cargo, unable with "heavy" cargo to be picked up on passenger aircraft. It is slow to build, so throw max marketing at Cargo.
When competing on a route, you can usually take all the cargo in 1 return, which means other Airlines do not get this income, you do.
Unlike passenger aircraft, you can pick cargo up through the night, with no reduction in demand.
As distance capability is low on say A321's, 757/763 Dedicated Cargos , you could make a 5000 mile destination, which when image is high will take all 3 cargo types, with 1 refuel stop.

But the price for Cargo on a high demand route, often with low or no passenger demand, can be finding a gem that others do not look for.
As Cargo lanes are old, always lease them.
Again, with say 1 return

This is just my approach, and i can start a fresh game, and within a few months be in the top 1/4 of Airlines and scores.
It is a Rocket Start!
For me, shorter games i prefer, this is superb a way to start.
Hope this view helps others...?!

[Captain Morph]

Stop leasing and start saving for new planes when your profit is steady and you have a solid cash reserve. New aircraft are more efficient and cheaper to maintain. For expanding air bases, focus on high-demand, low-competition areas.

[vidiv007]

So make sure you understand the next decade of fuel prices, and how that will affect cash flow. In other words if there is a fuel spike in 3 years time, then it's time to conserve cash and get ready to ride it through whilst hoping your competitors BK all around you.

How can you read into it, my fuel prediction is more or less always a nearly equal line going on both anticipated drop and rise of prices?

[groundbum2]

most alliances have collected fuel price data for previous years, and/or downloaded publicly available bulk oil fuel price data for the relevant game years. AWS follows this real world price pretty realistically. So for example there is a price spike in 1974 just like in the real world.

Join an alliance, or better before joining ask if they have this data, along with other data like new aircraft production dates etc

Simon

[vidiv007]

Thanks Simon.

Is it normal to have a 4 year gap on a large aircraft order between the first and 2nd planes? I used to play when it was first come first serve, but surely 4 years is excessive, can't pivot onto a new fleet with only the one aircraft?

[groundbum2]

no, absolutely not. Given most production lines are 30-50 planes a month you should expect 2 planes a month to be delivered.

What I suspect happened is you places an order for say 50xA321NEO and they are coming at 2 a month AFTER the launch date of XYZ. Perhaps then you ordered 50x321-200, and due to the line be busy one managed to sneak into an empty production slot before the 321NEOS start arriving, but the other 49 got put behind the 321NEOS that are coming in at 2 a month. Kind of like a queue jumper. Only way I can explain. Perhaps tell us which plane, airplane and gameworld and somebody can take a peek.

Happy trails, Simon

[vidiv007]

Simon, thanks for your time, its for the 707-320C in History and the Future.
The launched and available to order was on 21.01.1960, and i placed an order for 20 aircraft (single order on op lease) on the 26.01.1960.

To be honest I expected the order book to be quite hefty but as you point out it doesn't seem normal, given it was an early order and that one frame that does come will means very little without the others,  and  especially as all but 1 of the frames are in 1966 while 1967 basically the slots are half available.

[knobbygb]

I suppose the lesson is: check the dates before you confirm the order.  You can always skip that first one at the point of order, if you don't want it. That extra slot was probably available due to an increase in production rate. Or maybe somebody cancelled an order.

I was going to say - just sell the first one when it arrives but I just noticed it's on lease so... you're stuck.  Unless - if it's still quite far in the future you should be able to cancel it.  Sorry, I'm not in that game so can't see.