OK, so let me answer again
Yes, large airlines can afford to pay 100% up front--but they cannot afford ALL the orders they have today by paying 100% up front. That is the point--it reduces the massive backlog to something more reasonable, making room for other airlines to place orders.
This is exactly what we have now. Other airlines (say alliance partners) place orders and then supply these planes to their alliance mates. I don't see how the limit (only allow 100% upfront) would reduce the backlog. If anything, it would only allow big airlines to place orders at all while everyone else will simply skip the launch and hope to survive what they have got so far (old generation models). Nobody in his right mind would lease brandnew planes.
Furthermore, locking up $100m for a delivery 2 years from now instead of playing the used market is going to be the opportunity cost. The limit of 3 aircraft per week means you can get 150 aircraft per year off the used market--are you telling me there is a production line that would deliver 3 aircraft per week?
Again, you are talking theoretically. You can get 3 planes per game week, but did you consider real life? I know very few people who would set their alarm clocks at night to login into AWS and buy a few planes every 3 hours. Let's say half of those 150 is realistic and even then you better work from home or have your phone with you at all times.
With my approach (donating production slots from one airline to another) you would not need to do anything at all. The "ordering airline" would declare (while ordering) that the planes be delivered to the other airline. That's literally 3-4 extra clicks in total while buying one single plane off the used market involes dozens of clicks (every single time). The receiving airline would have the planes delivered exactly like own orders (directly from the manufacturer). Given that you can receive about 3 planes a month normally with your own order, you could (with 2 suppliers declaring your airline as "receiving airline") get a whole 9 aircraft per month (about 100 a year). That is more than you could realistically get from the UM - and more importantly, without any effort / time investment at all. Of course those numbers increase the more airlines donate their production slots to you.
Additionally, is there a real life example of an airline that actually takes 3 aircraft per week (consistently) from a single manufacturer (4 per week if you are getting +1 direct from manufacturer)?
You can't compare real life with a simulation. Even now it takes real life weeks/months to finally get to the point where a production line even becomes active (not to mention you get all your dozens of planes delivered). For the sake of gameplay, I think the current delivery speed is quite good.
Additionally, the AI brokers would order variants/configs based on the in service population--70% are CJR100LR in service, so 70% of the AI orders would be CRJ100LR. The production slots wouldn't be "stolen" but when an empty production slot reaches it's delivery date, the calculation is made if there are enough avail to the used market and if not, purchases it and makes it available (i.e. creates liquidity).
This would have to be reprogrammed like this. Certainly possible and not a bad idea. Right now, AI brokers seem to always order the cheapest model with the worst range/engine.
This doesn't hurt airline's ability to order whatever variant/config they want direct from the manufacturer--they just can't lock up slots for 5 years at a time like they can now.
A single airline can't, but an alliance can. So I don't really see the point. There were 2600 A321-200 orders in history and the future. Most of them from big airlines. Imagine an alliance of ~20 members out of which 5 airlines need this aircraft type. We are not talking about 50 planes per airline, but about 200-600 per airline. This alliance alone would need a minimum of 1500 A321-200 approximately. Of course the slots will be gone (as they always are). Then you have to add the speculators/brokers on top. Popular aircrafts will always be popular.
And again, since only rich airlines could pay 100% upfront, we're losing out on the smaller airlines who will just be left behind. Even if some of those A321-200 pop up on the used market, the price will always be higher than the launch price (large order discount, 100% upfront discount, launch discount). So not only are the small airlines in an disadvantage during the launch phase, but they also are in an disadvantage when it comes to buying from the used market.
You are correct that new entrants shouldn't be placing new orders--but that is my exact point. There are no used CRJs available for new entrants and the only way to get them is new in spite of the fact there is tons of production capacity because there is zero liquidity. I actually didn't even realize how scarce they were because when I started my airline ~1 game year ago there were 5 CRJ on the used market--it wasn't until later I realized there was zero liquidity. Even the 30 seat EMB120 has ~1200 in service with only 35 in storage. Sure you can pick up MD80 or A320, but those are 150 seat aircraft versus 50 seats which make zero sense on a route with less than 100 pax demand. F50 are slow prop planes that get penalized when competing against jets and significantly reduced cargo capabilities on longer routes, especially east/west routes where wind kills the capacity.
Generally speaking I would not recommend any new airline to lease planes that are newer than 5 yrs. In this particular example (need for a plane of about 50-70 seats), I would totally go for the F28, BAe-146's, DHC-8, F70/F100 etc. Especially the F70 is really abundant right now on the UM with very decent prices and the F100 is very versatile and can easily compete with pretty much everything. Even propeller airplanes are decent enough (F50, DHC-8, ATR, ATP, Saab) and it's not true that they get penalities. The only problem is that they are slower and you cannot fill the same number of daily flights. In other words: One would need more planes and more stuff to offer the same number of daily flights / passenger capacity. When it comes to cargo, those medium planes aren't really meant to be cargo planes at all given that they cannot carry heavy cargo. And you compete with all the belly loads from all your competitors in light/standard cargo. So cargo really can be neglected for medium planes.
Additionally, you're assuming everyone plays the game to run the most efficient or largest airline in the world. Frankly, AWS is boring as hell if all you're doing is using Boeing and Airbus metal (or Douglas etc.) because any monkey with half a brain can run a successful airline doing that (that's why the popular models are popular). I've got an all CRJ airline and am ordering new--the result being I have the newest fleet in the game with an average fleet age of ~1 year. So to answer the question why would a new airline want new aircraft--the answer is the exact same as the popular models: the price on the used market is infinity because there is zero liquidity.
I have used quite weird models in the past too (100x IL-96-400T, Superjets, Comacs, even tech-stopped NAMC and double tech-stopped DC6B). By the way, those NAMC were clearly better than the 727 in ORD, believe it or not. It's definitely fun to try out new things, new niches, new approaches. But you shouldnt complain about unpopular planes not being available. When I flew 100 IL-96-400T in last GW2, I was the only airline in the whole game who ordered them (there were not even orders for the pax version). The production line closed as soon as I got my last plane delivered. Since the first deliveries were in 2010 and the game end in 2035, that was no big deal. What I try to say is: New ideas are always good, but require careful planning. Just because I want something, it does not mean it will (or should) work. There is no success guarantee in this game. And even with boring fleets like Boeing, Airbus and MD80, people still manage to fail. So not sure if calling those players monkeys with half a brain is very nice.
This also goes back to your concerns about the big guys crushing the little guys--since many new airlines are the mercy of the used market, they get crushed by fleet commonality as well. If I weren't a patient man, I'd add extra fleet types out of necessity--especially if the production line is shut down.
But see, this is exactly the point. Why would I, as a new airline, get a fleet type which is not readily available? I have to check what's on the used market and adapt accordingly. And once I am ready to modernize, of course it's time to choose a fleet type that is still being produced. It makes no sense to go from one old fleet type to another outdated fleet type.
Also if a new airline is using the used market to get everyone else's leftovers, they are also forced into extra fleet types to transition the old metal to new in the coming years. If an airline had 2 fleet types with 10 year old metal, they would have to likely transition both those fleets in less than 10 years and have 4 fleet types for an extended period, especially if they are ordering new aircraft instead of the next generation's worth of leftovers.
Again, bad planning. As a new airline I should focus on one single fleet type and expand with that as much as possible (say 737 classics OR F50 OR F70, not all together). Once money is there, it's time to update this outdated fleet type to something more modern. This is the 2nd fleet type. And just in case you want to expand more, you still have a 3rd type available. The point here is to avoid too many fleet types to begin with. How do you avoid many different fleet types? By choosing a fleet type that makes sense for your market and that is readily available.
So the solution to reducing lead times for airlines is creating liquidity and making aircraft available and the only way to do that is to prevent alliances from abusing the current system.
How do alliance abuse the system? Please elaborate.
Right now there are orders for A320 and B737 that are 7 years out. Additionally, there are orders 5 years out for MD90 with TONS of open production slots.
This probably means there are MANY orders for this type from VERY FEW different airlines. This is a feature, not a bug. It is in place so that other players can still get good production slots if they decide to order that plane. And I think it should stay this way.
That means an airline is going to have an extra fleet type for up to 5 years unless they are gaming the system with an alliance partner.
Either an alliance partner or any other player who will function as a broker on the public used market. Again, the alliances don't abuse anything. The system works in the same fashion for every single player, within an alliance or not.
Right now there are 38 MD90 on the used market, but they are exclusively from 3 other airlines and no brokers--that means 3 players completely control the used market and if a new airline enters the game, is at the mercy of those 3 airlines that may or may not collude with each other and/or buying new. It may sound ridiculous, but it happens all of the time.
Right. Bus as you said yourself, there are tons of production slots available. Either use those and order the planes yourself (and avoid expensive brokers) or ask an alliance partner to do that for you. This is what alliances are for - mutual help. Then again, if I am a new player and see that the MD90 is not readily available while there are tons of MD80's, then maybe the MD80's are the better choice.
The attached screenshots shows exact reasons why 100% payment up front needs to happen--these airlines had zero intention of flying these aircraft and jammed up the production line, blocking actual operators from being able to order aircraft and manipulating the market.
Uhm, how is this any different from an AI broker ordering planes? The AI brokers certainly don't fly planes either and just put them on the used market. I don't see any difference. In the end, these particular airlines made an investment by ordering the planes and are interested in leasing them out and/or selling them. If those airline fail to do so, the investment is lost. Instead of trying to order new, I would simply contact those airlines and make a deal. Win-win-situation for both. That airline sells the planes, the new airline receives new planes and favorable prices. As you said, demand and supply. Sometimes it's cheaper to buy from those "airline brokers" than to order new. And like you said, you can avoid to sleep and get 150 per game year off the used market.
