PAX Demand

[DannyWilliams]

How much does demand generally increase from the 50's to the late 90's?
Just wondering since i still can't see ANY increase at all since GW2 started (except these stupid OL games that is)...


Thanks
Danny

[Sami]

In normal settings if demand is 10 in year 1950, it will be about 70 in 1990 and 120 in 2015. But settings may differ per each game world.

In GW2 there has been already an 25-30% increase from the starting demand levels.

[DannyWilliams]

In normal settings if demand is 10 in year 1950, it will be about 70 in 1990 and 120 in 2015. But settings may differ per each game world.

In GW2 there has been already an 25-30% increase from the starting demand levels.

Thanks for that Sami, just thought it weird that i hadn't seen any increase but that might be me being wrong.

[gazzz0x2z]

Thanks for that Sami, just thought it weird that i hadn't seen any increase but that might be me being wrong.

When it's slow, you don't see it. But I kept some references of my 1950 studies, and it's notably better. WAW-LHR went up from 300 to 400, more or less.

[Elladan]

In normal settings if demand is 10 in year 1950, it will be about 70 in 1990 and 120 in 2015. But settings may differ per each game world.

In GW2 there has been already an 25-30% increase from the starting demand levels.

So there would be +600% increase over 40 years, i.e. about +15% per year as the relation seems to be linear. 25-30% growth over 8 years since this game started doesn't look too impressive then, or am I reading this wrong?

[DannyWilliams]

So there would be +600% increase over 40 years, i.e. about +15% per year as the relation seems to be linear. 25-30% growth over 8 years since this game started doesn't look too impressive then, or am I reading this wrong?

Makes it easier to predict the future growth on almost 60% of my routes that i am alone on, now that i have some numbers to follow i just added another flight to all those destinations...

[qunow]

so by the end of the gameworld HND-CTS will probably have 150k daily traffic demand even after considering the HND/NRT split. Even one A380 every ten minutes all day long will not be able to cover the demand.

So there would be +600% increase over 40 years, i.e. about +15% per year as the relation seems to be linear. 25-30% growth over 8 years since this game started doesn't look too impressive then, or am I reading this wrong?

It is probably not linear, consider
- it took 40 years to grow the demand by 60, from 10 in 1950 to 70 in 1990
- it then only need 25 years to grow the demand by 50, from 70 in 1990 to 120 in 2015.
Also, as game data were collected in 2000s, using linear growth prediction would cause lots of problem in early days.

[Elladan]

The numbers posted by Sami show a pretty much linear relation, just put them on a graph and you will see. I have no idea how the actual coding looks like, it might be more complicated than that of course but from those 3 time points that's what it is.
If I read this right and we are indeed in for a 10-15 times increase from 1950 demand figures we will see some unbelievable routes this game. Considering HND-CTS and HND-FUK are already at 10k breaking 100k on those seems likely. If you're in Japan plan to use A380s Somehow I'm a bit skeptical on that though.

[knobbygb]

So there would be +600% increase over 40 years, i.e. about +15% per year as the relation seems to be linear. 25-30% growth over 8 years since this game started doesn't look too impressive then, or am I reading this wrong?

But the figures are compounded, so 15% is way too high.  A 600% growth over 40 years requires only (slightly less than) 5% growth per year.

- it took 40 years to grow the demand by 60, from 10 in 1950 to 70 in 1990
- it then only need 25 years to grow the demand by 50, from 70 in 1990 to 120 in 2015.

That actually means that growth has slowed down quite a bit, not sped up. Continuing that 5% growth from 1990 to 2015 would have increased demand from 70 to 238. The growth from 70 to 120 is approximately 2.2% per year over 25 years.

This, of course, assumes a linear rate and that the increases in demand are calculated annually.