after a while of considerations...

Started by Longbow, April 18, 2014, 08:10:56 AM

Longbow

Hi there,
I'm pretty a newbie of aws and I'm trying to find a right way to play, understand it and have fun with this beautiful game, but...

What I am experiencing is just a little frustrating sense of inevitability: if you come late you will lose the opportunities and your game will be, if you are lucky enough and good enough, just in the average/low segment.

I'll try to explain better my point: a newbie (like me) cannot open a base in a big city because all the routes are filled (at least) at the 150% of the capacity and the starting cash amount is insufficient to keep going against the big ones: some airports have nearly 10% of free slots. So you have, must have,  to choose the uncommon airports, with poor request and with less money gain.

I will close my experience in world 1 because it's useless to keep trying to create a good airline in a game with alliances made by airlines with hundreds of planes. I think that world 2 will follow asap due of the same reason.

Probably I will wait those months to have the chanche to be the first opening a base in sidney, rome, newyork o whatever...

Ps: after 20 euros spent, this is not the target I was expecting from this game :(

If I've understood the game dynamics in a wrong way, please tell me what I have to do to play this game without the feeling of being on late every time: i will appreciate a lot any type of help @.@

E.

Fscamp

Just try find an airport with enough demand & not too much competition and start an airline there, you don't necessarily have to pick any really huge airport.

In game world 1 which has been running all the way from 1955 I joined in 1987, found a nice niche from domestic Mexican market, now my airline owns over 80 aircraft and has very good profit margin, I believe by early 2000's I will have over 100 A/C in operation.

In game world 2 which has been running from 1975 I joined in 1995, found a nice market from Nigeria. Now my airline operates 58 aircraft and is quite profitable.

So it's perfectly possible to do quite well even if you join late in the game and don't go for any huge airport. Also as you can have total 4 base airports nothing prevents you from first starting with some slightly smaller airport, then when you have made enough profit you could go and start another base in some major airport. Even if the routes are already 150% of the capacity it's still possible to compete with lower price & possibly higher company image, especially if you have a smaller base with no competition that makes you steady, high profit.

You could try game world 4.


Curse

As a newbie a big top airport is maybe not what you want, no matter when you start.

However, you are right, starting late in a gameworld and wanting to grow big is, if you are on your own, sometimes hard if not impossible at all.




Other people may convince you from something else. Don't listen. Just start next gameworld early (but still your HQ should fit your experience and skill or you'll fail even faster and harder). My credo on this: Start in the first 24 hours or keep out of the gameworld at all. My latest experiences breaking this credo because I was asked to help prooved that - even with massive support from one of the top alliances it was not a fun experience due to slot limitations, route oversupplies, extremely long new aircraft waiting times etc. Simple as that.

Sami

Quote from: CUR$E on April 18, 2014, 10:59:50 AM
Start in the first 24 hours or keep out of the gameworld at all.

This is a wildly "incorrect" statement (yes, your opinion and personal motto, but still... don't like others to get a wrong idea), since there have been many changes lately to make the start easier in an established game world. The updates to the amount of startup money for example is one of the biggest, and I've been told it works very well.

Lots of other things too like the improved base finder, free "peek" period in the scenario etc.

But indeed, stay out of the biggest airports in the world, unless there is a sudden opening by bankruptcy, and you will find many opprtunities in every game world.

Longbow

Thanks guys :)

I was afraid because I like this game so much, so I will try to keep my current airlines already launched, while I will wait for the new restart as Curse tells.

So, perhaps, I only need some practice.  U.u

Curse

Quote from: sami on April 18, 2014, 11:12:19 AM
This is a wildly "incorrect" statement (yes, your opinion and personal motto, but still... don't like others to get a wrong idea), since there have been many changes lately to make the start easier in an established game world. The updates to the amount of startup money for example is one of the biggest, and I've been told it works very well.

Lots of other things too like the improved base finder, free "peek" period in the scenario etc.

But indeed, stay out of the biggest airports in the world, unless there is a sudden opening by bankruptcy, and you will find many opprtunities in every game world.

I know you don't like the statement and this is, as I said, just true for the big airports. You made many changes that allow people to create smaller airlines, especially from Tier2 and below airports and that seems to work well. That's what I suggest to the thread opener to start with.
The huge airline he wants to have is, however, nearly not possible to build late in a game (like, joining GW#2 around 1999).


Let me give two examples:
1) I joined GW#2 in 1999 because I was asked to help out. Base was Dallas/Forth Worth with no other airline having a HQ there. However, late in the game, three well developed airlines had bases there with 100x modern aircraft, mostly A320-200, and extremely huge quarterly profits from their HQ and their other bases. The aircraft I had to compete with were nearly all owned while I flew leased old 737 classics and leased old A320-100.

KDFW had endless slots open, however, many of the destination airports were out of the slots that fit well in such a schedule. La Guardia, New York JFK or some of the smaller ones like Chicago Midway (?) to name a few. There were four unoccupied routes out of KDFW that were able to support a 737/A320 and the profits I realized in the first years were basically just because I was able to get aircraft at minimum value from the alliance. If I would have had to pay standard used market prices I probably would not have been able to go for a modern fleet type and an older one would probably not made me profits at all in the early 2000s.



2) The Dubai airline in GW#3 went BK and I joined the game in 2015. Due to the higher starting money I was able to aquire a nice amount of starting aircraft and some routes were actually uncontested. However, many airports were absolutely slot restricted or the routes were overcrowded to a level where even the A300-600R, the maybe most efficient aircraft in the whole game, did not make money even with cheaper leases. Building up a bigger airline here would have been possible - with some downsides.
- On my own I would have not been able to keep the A300 production line open. I had help from a friend with that. I intended to purchase lots of aircraft but there are no options in AWS and I of course had no money to make many direct purchases while leases are far too expensive so late into the game to make reasonable profit.
- All popular aircraft production slots were occupied for years. A350, A320 etc. were basically not available to get for a new player without waiting 5-7 years or just receiving 1-2 aircraft a year at max due to slot gaps.
- Some interesting airports were out of slots to fly to.
- Many airlines with CI 100 while just CI 90 is reachable without an insane amount of money spent.



Don't get me wrong, it's not meant as "whining", it's just meant as feedback and answer to creating a _big_ airline out of a _big_ airport starting late in the game. Building up a smaller airline (at a big airport) or a bigger airline with smaller aircraft out of a smaller airport seems to work very well even late in the game thanks to your recent changes, sami.

Longbow

In order to have a new base (using your existing  one to feed-up $ in the new one) you must have at least 15 a/c: with small airports with poor routes how could you fit 15 small planes?

I have an airline in romania and every long route it's a bloodsucking try...

Just fyi: it's in timisoara because the biggest and with more request airports were already crowded ._.

LemonButt

Quote from: Longbow on April 18, 2014, 08:10:56 AM
cannot open a base in a big city because all the routes are filled (at least) at the 150% of the capacity and the starting cash amount is insufficient to keep going against the big ones: some airports have nearly 10% of free slots.

I wrote a guide on how small/late joiners can compete and "win" against a large established airline that I sent to sami a couple weeks ago (did you get a chance to read it sami?).  I started an airline in GW2 at ORD where 2 of the top 20 airlines were based with every route having 100+% supply and zero slots an hour available between 500 and 800 (now there are no slots available between 500 and 900) and 2 other hour blocks latter in the day now have zero slots).  I'm also flying a 100% CRJ200 fleet and attacking my competitors routes versus trying to avoid them.  Additionally, fuel has nearly doubled to $500+ and in spite of all this I am still turning a ~15% pretax profit, which is as good as the 2 established competitors.  Even if fuel doubles again to $1000+ (without inflation) I will have the profits/margins to at least break even, if not turn a small profit.

You of course have to compete with strategy, but first you must define the goal and implement every aspect of your strategy to support that goal.  I have grown to 60 CRJs in just 5 years and I'm only 35% done with my flight plan, with hopes of completing it in the next 5 years or potentially opening another base and growing it parallel depending on the slots situation.

The screenshot below is my airline today with 60 CRJs.  You can see I'm transporting about 130k pax/week at this point.  Based on the market share numbers, the big 2 competitors I'm up against have a combined 19x the pax transported as me.  That means I had 130k pax and they had 2470k pax.  This may seem insignificant, but those 130k pax had to come from somewhere and I'd estimate I've "stolen" 100k pax/week from these to airlines in just 5 years (the other 30k being non-based competitors).  Not only did I steal 100k pax, but also 100k pax worth of profit.

The fact that this can be done is a testament to how well sami has developed the game as players have a lot of clubs in their bag to compete effectively.

Curse

Don't get me wrong, LemonButt, and I don't want to talk your success small, but 130k vs. 2500k and 60 aircraft vs. several hundred aircraft is exactly the difference I talked about.

I consider your airline as small and those work in such an evironment. The thread opener wanted to have huge airlines and those usually can't be established when the game is >50% in. Exceptions to this are seldom and require several people who help out with aircraft to cheap prices.

Longbow

Unfortunately,  Course got the point: too much effort for a below average airline. Satisfacting but not the goal for what the game was developed for... imho.

LemonButt

Quote from: CUR$E on April 18, 2014, 02:21:56 PM
Don't get me wrong, LemonButt, and I don't want to talk your success small, but 130k vs. 2500k and 60 aircraft vs. several hundred aircraft is exactly the difference I talked about.

I consider your airline as small and those work in such an evironment. The thread opener wanted to have huge airlines and those usually can't be established when the game is >50% in. Exceptions to this are seldom and require several people who help out with aircraft to cheap prices.

This is why many players aren't successful in AWS--they are looking at the wrong stats.  Profit is the only thing that matters--this is a business simulation, not an arcade game.  A SkyConnect airline (I think it was) was just closed by the bank with 800+ aircraft in GW2.  Who cares how many aircraft you have if you can't turn a profit?  Who cares about market share if you can't turn a profit?  That big 800+ airline (and others) might be bigger, but they aren't better simply because they are bigger.

At a rate of 60 aircraft every 5 years, I'm going to end the game with approximately 250 aircraft which IRL terms is a large airline.  Realistically though, I will be turning bigger profits with more aircraft and able to expand quicker, so I will more likely end up with somewhere around 400 aircraft.  I'm sticking to one of the most inefficient aircraft in one of the most inefficient fleet groups, but if I were to add a fleet type and fly bigger and/or more economical, I can expand even quicker and grow even larger.  The whole point of me chiming in on this thread is to say it is very possible to create a large airline late in the game, even with the worst aircraft in one of the most competitive airports--maybe not large by Curse standards, but nonetheless 500+ aircraft is very possible.  Right now you need 250 aircraft to be in the top 50, which again is very possible starting late in the game.

Out of the 7 airlines started in the same year as mine (1999) after 5 years in, the smallest airline has 28 aircraft and the largest has 75 aircraft.  That airline with 75 aircraft is based out of Tokyo and the smallest aircraft operated is a 150 seat MD-90--the other fleet types are A300-600 and B777 and he is transporting over 400k pax/week.  BTW that 2500k number is the two large airlines combined with approx an 1600k/900k split.  That means in 5 years, I've already grown to ~10% the size of one of the largest airlines in the game (#3 in pax transported overall) that had a 25 year head start on me.  Creating a large airline is a long process versus an event (like players who start during the landrush) and takes a lot of patience.  Beginners World perhaps sets expectations way too high as any clown with internet access can be successful there.

LemonButt

Quote from: Longbow on April 18, 2014, 02:45:34 PM
Unfortunately,  Course got the point: too much effort for a below average airline. Satisfacting but not the goal for what the game was developed for... imho.

And what goal is that?  And what does below average mean?  I am in the top 50% of nearly every stat category.

Fscamp

Quote from: Longbow on April 18, 2014, 02:45:34 PM
Unfortunately,  Course got the point: too much effort for a below average airline. Satisfacting but not the goal for what the game was developed for... imho.

It's entirely possible to start and build above average airline when it comes to fleet size & profit even after decades after start of the game world.

In game world 1 my airline Aerointer (started in 1987) has stats like this:

Fleet size: 107 / 270   81 (So clearly above average and still growing)

Profit margin: 24 / 270   28.12%

Pre tax profit/loss 89 / 270   79 729 985 USD

Oldest airlines: 124 / 271   11-Jul-1987 (3684 d) (So actually over half of the airlines are younger than mine)


"Satisfacting but not the goal for what the game was developed for..."

The game wasn't developed to allow everyone have airlines with hundreds of aircraft, that would be entirely unrealistic.  You don't need hundreds of aircraft to enjoy the game, you can make enough profit with way less than that.

Curse

#13
@ Fscmap

Your airline in GW#1 has 82 aircraft, most of them are small/medium, and is a Mexican regional airline.

Don't get me wrong but I said this to LemonButt: This is not a big airline in my eyes. That doesn't mean it's not a good one. The thread opener asked about big ones...

azdozer

As a fanboy of regional airlines in the US, I can open an airline almost anywhere and have fun and build a fleet. I do however, understand, some people don't see the fun in flying CRJ's and ERJ's around. To me, it's pure joy. Seems like everyone has different standards and expectations from the game. I just hope this site sticks around for many years to come, and maybe they can incorporate customer complaints in the game so maybe I can finally be #1 in something because it's not in moving passengers...that's for sure!

schro

Quote from: azdozer on April 18, 2014, 04:36:08 PM
As a fanboy of regional airlines in the US, I can open an airline almost anywhere and have fun and build a fleet. I do however, understand, some people don't see the fun in flying CRJ's and ERJ's around. To me, it's pure joy. Seems like everyone has different standards and expectations from the game. I just hope this site sticks around for many years to come, and maybe they can incorporate customer complaints in the game so maybe I can finally be #1 in something because it's not in moving passengers...that's for sure!

From my perspective, being a passenger on a CRJ or ERJ isn't fun!

LemonButt

The problem with this whole thread is that we're not even talking about being successful, but being the "best".  This is a business simulation and the goal of business is profits, period.  Whether an airline is large or small is irrelevant.  If you want to build a large airline, you can't do so without building a small airline first.  Of course there are limits (artificial and market-based) that will keep you from having 3000 aircraft, but the only thing standing in the way of a late joiner from growing to 100s of aircraft is their strategy. 

If you are flying small/medium aircraft, you will have a lower return on invested capital (ROIC) because of slot costs being the biggest obstacle to overcome.  I am paying $1 million for a 4-month prepaid lease, but $8 million for slots for each CRJ I add to my fleet.  If I were flying a 300 seater instead of a 47 seater then my ROIC will be much higher, but I will have bigger overhead operating costs and a much more difficult time achieving high load factors.

The whole concept of building a value chain is lost on the average AWS player.  They want to use the click-and-deploy model to build an airline that any clown can operate profitably in the beginning, but when it can't be done late in the game they complain because they operate as if air travel is a commodity market--it isn't.  Southwest Airlines is wildly successful and is as large/respected as the legacy carriers because they competed with strategy.  Here is a direct quote from the co-founder/former CEO/Chairman of Southwest, Herb Keller:
QuoteMarket share has nothing to do with profitability.  Market share says we just want to be big; we don't care if we make money doing it.  That's what misled much of the airline industry for fifteen years, after deregulation.  In order to get an additional 5 percent of the market, some companies increased their costs by 25 percent.  That's really incongruous if profitability is your purpose.

The reason Southwest is/was successful, beyond their focus on profits, was that they used disruptive innovation and competed with strategy.  Namely they offered low cost fares and only flew to focus cities.  Flying to focus cities = profitable versus flying to every possible airport to capture marketshare.  They used strategy to create a competitive advantage versus trying to "be the best".  Competing to be the best doesn't work in the long run because operational effectiveness can be copied.  Once best practices for operational efficiency become known, rivals can duplicate them quickly (i.e. 7-day scheduling).  Once that happens, what was once a competitive advantage becomes the price of entering the market and profits erode (you MUST use 7-day scheduling to be compete).  This is the exact reason why the average AWS player cannot build a large airline late--the profits are eroded adding another click-and-deploy airline.  Rivalry drives prices down--not up.  Price wars are good for consumers, but terrible for the bottom line.  However, if you are competing with strategy then you can sustain charging a premium for your product and maintain profitability.  Look at Apple and all their iCrap.  They can charge a big premium over their competitors which are just as good because they have iTunes, the app store, etc.

So the bottom line is if you want to build a large airline without creating a competitive advantage, it is a race to the bottom because you have no differentiation and you are competing on price.  For my CRJ airline, for example, my prices are ~120% on most routes with an aggregate load factor of 91.1%.  This was entering a market with 100+% supply on every route.  I entered the ORD-LGA route that has 4000 pax/day demand was supplied over 100%.  I added 17 flights/day and flying with a 89.6% load factor at 120% pricing.  I can do this because I am doing something different than my competitors versus simply copying them.  If I were flying the B737/A320/MD90 that my competitors are doing then I'd be a sheep going to slaughter.

The problem isn't that you can't start a successful or large airline--it's your definition of success and the concept that larger is better.  As you can see from the attached chart, when you compete to be the best you are competing on your ability to execute.  When you don't have a competitive advantage because you are using the same strategy as a competitor, your ability to execute is no different and all you can compete on is price.  Once this happens, it is a race to the bottom.

It's like the tale of the two shoe salesmen.  Two shoe salesmen are sent to Africa in search of new business.  The first salesman calls his boss and says no one wears shoes over here and there is no one to sell to.  The second salesman calls his boss and says no one here has any shoes!  Send more ASAP!  The first salesman is your average AWS player competing "to be the best" and the second is a player competing for profit.

LemonButt

Quote from: schro on April 18, 2014, 05:00:09 PM
From my perspective, being a passenger on a CRJ or ERJ isn't fun!

They are fun to board/deplane because you don't have 100+ idiots struggling to get their oversized luggage out of their oversized overhead bins :)

Fscamp

Quote from: CUR$E on April 18, 2014, 04:25:26 PM
@ Fscmap

Your airline in GW#1 has 82 aircraft, most of them are small/medium, and is a Mexican regional airline.

Don't get me wrong but I said this to LemonButt: This is not a big airline in my eyes. That doesn't mean it's not a good one. The thread opener asked about big ones...

Yeah, it depends from what one counts as big, as I started Airwaysim just a couple of months ago to me it feels big compared to few failed ones I had before, it offers me enough interesting stuff to play with & enough profit to plan new orders and expand further & start more international operations.








Curse

The thread opener wants a big airline, not the best or most profit making one.