20+ Year old aircraft Question

[forsberc]

Do maintenance costs go through the up drastically after 20 years still? Or has this been changed?

Cameron

[alexgv1]

Yeah they are still high on aircraft over 20 yrs old.

[forsberc]

Do the prices jump at 20 yrs still?

[alexgv1]

Don't know if there is a specific jump between 19.9 and 20.0 years... I thought it just went higher in a linear fashion. Just avoiding those 20y/o aircraft tended to be the rule of thumb.

Here is an example of maintenance costs on two identical 727-200Advs:

Age    19.80 y
Condition    87%
A check    28 781 USD Perform A check
B check    74 832 USD Perform B check
C check    1 726 886 USD Perform C check
D check    8 634 431 USD Perform D check

Age    20.14 y
Condition    90%
A check    28 810 USD Perform A check
B check    74 905 USD Perform B check
C check    1 728 580 USD Perform C check
D check    8 642 900 USD Perform D check

No real difference in price in line or heavy maintenance so answer is no.

I was never aware there actually was ever this jump in costs.

Hope this helps 

[schro]

There's a pretty significant jump in C/D check pricing between the 16 year and 24 year D-check, to the extent you don't really want to be on the hook to pay for the 24 year D-check for most any plane, which is where I think the 20 year rule of thumb gets its routes (i.e. if you pick up a 19 year old plane and fly it for 3-4 years, it isn't that bad).  If you compare the 20 year old costs to the new costs, they are significantly higher though...

In other news, I was on a 36 year old DC-9-50 on Monday and it flew just great :-).

[forsberc]

There's a pretty significant jump in C/D check pricing between the 16 year and 24 year D-check, to the extent you don't really want to be on the hook to pay for the 24 year D-check for most any plane, which is where I think the 20 year rule of thumb gets its routes (i.e. if you pick up a 19 year old plane and fly it for 3-4 years, it isn't that bad).  If you compare the 20 year old costs to the new costs, they are significantly higher though...

In other news, I was on a 36 year old DC-9-50 on Monday and it flew just great :-).

Thanks for the help. I'm debating whether or not to buy 20 year old A320/319s.

[schro]

Thanks for the help. I'm debating whether or not to buy 20 year old A320/319s.

I would lease them but not buy them unless the game world is ending before they are up for their next D check, then I'd consider a purchase.  The lease rate should be rock bottom at that age...

[alexgv1]

I'd avoid them and aim for the 10 year mark on used aircraft. Depends how long is left of the game. Just make sure they're not too old by the end if you plan to operate them that far!

[Dasha]

I think it also depends on what you will use them for. I'm not sure if it's modelled in AWS but a 20 year old 747 that has flown trans atlantic routes it's entire life will be in much better shape than a 20 year old 737 used for small hops.

I usually also go for the 10 year mark, but in some games there is nothing on the market. Then I just check for D checks and make sure the lease ends before the D check runs out. I've also heard people leasing planes for 11 months right after a fresh C check. When there are enough planes on the market, you can get a fresh C check every year

Also, don't you get the 'Plane is getting too old to fly' message at 20 years? Not sure what happens after that or how long you can actually fly a plane.

[alexgv1]

You get the "too old to fly" warning at 25 years and compulsory scrapping at 35 years I believe.

[forsberc]

Yup, I meant to say lease the planes. I just started and there's about 3 years left until the end. I plan to replace the aircraft before the next D check, but I need something cheap in order to expand past my competition and gain a better footing. I got an 18 yr old A319. It should work out well.

Thanks all for your help!

Cameron

[mp81]

There's a pretty significant jump in C/D check pricing between the 16 year and 24 year D-check, to the extent you don't really want to be on the hook to pay for the 24 year D-check for most any plane, which is where I think the 20 year rule of thumb gets its routes (i.e. if you pick up a 19 year old plane and fly it for 3-4 years, it isn't that bad).  If you compare the 20 year old costs to the new costs, they are significantly higher though...

In other news, I was on a 36 year old DC-9-50 on Monday and it flew just great :-).

must have been delta with those northwest 9s. those things are quite old, some being former eastern.

[schro]

must have been delta with those northwest 9s. those things are quite old, some being former eastern.

only one former eastern bird remains in the fleet, N401EA and I have been chasing it to see if I can catch a ride on it. They have a handful of EA 757s around, but the diesel 9 holds a special place in my heart. I was on N676MC monday, so yes, NWA via several predecessors. I've got another few 9 flights booked this year so I'll see what else comes up. My ears are still ringing from sitting back near the jt8ds on N973Dl a couple hours ago.

[schro]

Yup, I meant to say lease the planes. I just started and there's about 3 years left until the end. I plan to replace the aircraft before the next D check, but I need something cheap in order to expand past my competition and gain a better footing. I got an 18 yr old A319. It should work out well.

Thanks all for your help!

Cameron

one more pro-tip- the operating costs across the a32x series are virtually identical regardless of size and if you need more range than a 320 or 321 can provide, you won't be profitable at the 319 size unless you are before the year 2000

[forsberc]

one more pro-tip- the operating costs across the a32x series are virtually identical regardless of size and if you need more range than a 320 or 321 can provide, you won't be profitable at the 319 size unless you are before the year 2000

I'm not entirely following you... Are you saying to not use an A319 at max range when fuel prices skyrocket? I'm using my A319 on 350ish NM routes, 4 routes per day during "peak" hours. I can't imagine that not being profitable....

[schro]

I'm not entirely following you... Are you saying to not use an A319 at max range when fuel prices skyrocket? I'm using my A319 on 350ish NM routes, 4 routes per day during "peak" hours. I can't imagine that not being profitable....

Sorry - was typing from my phone which takes away the urge to use a lot of words :-).

350nmish routes are fine for an A319. So yes, i was saying don't use the A319 at max range - basically long and thin will bankrupt you.  If you're flying a 3000nm 100 pax route, you will lose your shirt when fuel prices are high.

The other thing I'm saying, is that the cost to operate a A319 versus a A321 is negligible, thus, if you're flying the A321 on the same schedule, even at a lower load factor, you'll make more money. Basically A319 @ 100% LF profit = A321 profit at about a 66%-70% load factor. If you can sell an extra 10-20 seats (i.e. on a ~110 demand route, you can usually sell up to ~140-150 seats), you'll probably double the profit per plane flown since they're all gravy....

[forsberc]

That makes a lot of sense. Thanks for the assistance!

Cameron