I am experimenting with cargo routes and so far I have learned a few things but I still have many doubts.
I started off with Cologne / Bonn (Köln) (CGN) - Kahramanmaras (KCM)
(https://snipboard.io/KC2Ywh.jpg) (https://snipboard.io/y5E8Ll.jpg) (https://snipboard.io/UB7Vl6.jpg)
Current demand hasn't grown any further for a few months now.
NB: Cologne and Hamburg don't share any squares, if I understood correctly, the fact that I am supplying KCM from both shouldn't have any influence.
To the west, there is Adana Sakirpasa (ADA), which shares a square with KCM, and is supplied by me alone from CGN.
(https://snipboard.io/d2BeAu.jpg) (https://snipboard.io/2vTIKN.jpg)
To the south-east, there is Gaziantep Oguzeli (GZT), with no supply whatsoever
(https://snipboard.io/s3FUL4.jpg) (https://snipboard.io/CHGg76.jpg)
Initially, I wanted to add a 6731 kg (CRJ2SF) or 8980 kg (8-Q400PF) standard cargo route to Gaziantep but now I'm thinking:
- Will it hurt the current (good) profits on KCM?
- If it will, would it make sense to fully supply GZT, drop KCM and add supply to ADA?
- I'm struggling to decipher ADA, since on the CGN squares there are a gazillion other airports, including FRA (even though the demand is low for ADA
And finally, what is keeping KCM's current demand from going up to match potential demand?
Thank you so much for any possible elucidation, I know the numbers are small but it's good practice for me :)
1. You will find that the Current Demand takes a lot longer to grow than you would expect. It also depends on how often you serve the route. I've found that if I just put a single weekly flight on to 'test the waters' then it only grows about 1/7th of what it would with daily flights. I don't know how that affects the SPEED of growth, just that it kind of caps the total amount. I can't see from your screenshots if you're flying daily or not.
2. Probably more importantly. Although you considered your base at HAM, you also have to look if other people are flying to the destination (or anywhere nearby) from other airports than overlap CGN and HAM, such as HAJ, DUS, BRE, DTM...
My guess, particularly with KCM would be that somebody is flying HAJ or DUS to ADA and taking the demand that way. It can be VERY complicated!
also ADANA (Turkey?) and airports in countries other than Germany won't compete as cargo CBD doesn't cross water or national boundaries.
As Knobby says probably flights at other airports competing. I'd go to KCM airport page and look at the airports timetable, see if there are other flights to Germany and specificaly to German airports that share squares with CGN. You'd need to do this for any airport that shares squares with KCM! Imagine doing this for JFK-LHR, probably 5 airports at each end so 25 combinations to check!
Simon