Hello all. I am relatively new to AirwaySim and have a few questions regarding demand. I know my post seems long-winded and appreciate those who take the time to read and respond. :)
- First, do the demand calculations take into account the effect of hub and spoke operations (connecting traffic)? For instance, demand to KPIT (spoke A) from KPHL (hub) is approximately 400 seats and demand from KMSY (spoke B) to KPIT (spoke A) is 50 seats. If no flights were scheduled from spoke to spoke, in the real world at least a portion of the 50 seats of demand from the spoke to spoke route would be willing to connect somewhere to get to their destination. In the example provided, the demand would be between 400-450 seats.
- Is seasonality of demand considered? (e.g., ski destinations experience more demand in winter)
- Is a global factor applied to daily demand (i.e., Saturday demand in all markets is calculated as 70% of average demand), or is it dependent on the destination? (i.e., Market A has 60% business travel, therefore Saturday demand is 40% of average; Market B has 10% business travel, therefore Saturday demand is 80% of average). I would expect that destinations with a greater share of business travel to have more demand on weekdays, particularly Monday and Thursday, while a leisure destination would likely experience greater demand on Fridays and weekends than would a primarily business travel destination.
- If demand does account for percentage of business travel, does this impact price elasticity?
- Is the time of day considered in demand algorithms?
In the real world we know that the two key factors in air travel decisions are schedule and price. Not all demand is elastic with respect to the time of day the route is flown. Schedule is particularly important for business travelers, who are less price sensitive. This is why we see airlines moving towards smaller planes with higher frequencies.
A purely hypothetical situation for consideration: KPHL to KMDW has demand for 300 seats on Mondays and supply of 600 seats. The schedule is as follows:
- Airline A - 02:10 (100 seats)
- Airline B - 05:45 (100 seats)
- Airline A - 07:15 (100 seats)
- Airline B - 12:30 (100 seats)
- Airline C - 12:15 (100 seats)
- Airline B - 14:00 (100 seats)
First, assuming all other factors were equal (price, route image, etc.), one would expect low demand (and load factors) for the 02:10 departure because it is an undesirable departure time.
Next, we see there is currently 2 departures (200 seats of supply) between 12:15-12:30. I may be slightly off, but I suspect the greatest demand is between 05-09 and 16-20. Given these departures are at an off-peak time and depart so closely to one another, one would expect these routes to experience lower load factors than if the departure times were further apart. If both flights departed during peak time, say 06:15 and 06:30, the demand at that time would be less of a factor.
Finally, note there is no evening departures scheduled. The last departure (14:00) would capture travelers who want to return later, but because it is the last flight of the day they are forced to choose it. A portion of customers would opt not to travel as the schedule does not fit their needs. Without considering the demand by time of day and the schedule of seats on the route, there appears to be an oversupply of seats on the route. In reality, there is unmet demand because no evening departures are offered. As a result, If airline A were to schedule a departure at 07:30, the flight was experience a load factor relatively higher than average on the route. The load factor of the 14:00 departure would be impacted proportionately more than the other routes due to customers who selected it because it was the last departure.
The demand model is not that complex. Really the only part of your question that is modeled is #5. Time of day does factor in, but only in that flights leaving between 23:55 and 04:55, or arriving between around 00:55 and 04:55 are significantly shunned by passengers, and flights leaving after 23:00 or before 06:00 are somewhat shunned. For the most part, 06:00-22:55 are considered "peak". Multiple flights leaving within about an hour on the same airline do see significant drops unless the route has very large demand overall (thousands of pax per day).
There is no connecting pax whatsoever, and that has been discussed at length in the feature request forum.
There is no seasonal demand fluctuation due to the speed of the game - a game year takes roughly a week (depending on the day length in any given game) so do you really want to have to adjust your capacity twice a week every week?
Daily demand is highest on Monday, Thursday, and Friday, lower on Tuesday and Wednesday, and lowest on Saturday and Sunday. Globally. This is in contrast to the real world where (for example) in the US, Sunday is usually the busiest day for flying. But regional definitions of "weekend" are not modeled.
#1 - The demand figures acknowledge the current real-life hubs, but player cannot create his own connections yet.
#2 - No, since it would be a total pain to manage. Half a year in game is about 2-3 days and it would be impossible to manage the schedules if you have a 200-plane airline for example.
#3 - The weekday demand variation is roughly the same on all routes. (haven't got actually really data on this?)
#4 - The potential business and first class travellers have a different preference profile than economy people (but not very good/noticeable in my mind yet actually)
#5 - The night times are naturally the worst, but the morning and afternoon hours are also better than let's say mid-day or late evening (the day is broken down into half-hour periods, each having own "score" for arrival and departure desirability). Departure and arrival times affect depending on the type and length of the flight. But it does not take into account that evening example of yours, so usually if there's a flight available that's not in extremely poor time, not with an extremely poor [image] airline, not with extreme prices (and so forth), the passengers will pick up the flight. ..in this example the 07.15 flight would be the winner and 02.10 the worst, others roughly the same I'd say (5.45 probably second worst).
Thank you both. I appreciate the information!
Quote from: sami on February 23, 2015, 11:29:59 PM
(.../...)#3 - The weekday demand variation is roughly the same on all routes. (haven't got actually really data on this?)
(.../...)
The only data I've got is for Grenoble airport, in the french alps. As it is mainly a holiday destination, 60% of flights there are on saturdays, and 30% on sundays. Weekdays are nearly empty. It is obviously very different from everything else IRL(and could be cool to have, would make scheduling more fun).
Quote from: gazzz0x2z on February 24, 2015, 10:58:22 AM
The only data I've got is for Grenoble airport, in the french alps. As it is mainly a holiday destination, 60% of flights there are on saturdays, and 30% on sundays. Weekdays are nearly empty. It is obviously very different from everything else IRL(and could be cool to have, would make scheduling more fun).
Agree. As it stands now one will always have excess capacity on weekends. If factored in one could fly a larger plane to the airport you mention during the weekend and use a smaller aircraft during the week.