Hey,
I'm struggling to understand how accurate the pax demand is -- for some routes I'm noticing that airlines will have 2x+ seats available and still add more seats. Is the pax demand figure a low ballpark estimate?
It's usually +- 5% or so. And it varies a bit with time. In the long run it increases.
So how are airlines running 2x+ seats available and still getting good LFs?
They won´t get "good" LF. Maybe they get enough to be profitable. Maybe they are planning to beat you by price or have a small advantage by offering a higher frequency. Maybe they plan to make losses and push you out of the way. Maybe they just can´t calculate.
Demand is predicted quite accurate. At first all demand is spread evenly over all flights, but some factors like flight time, frequency, pricing, seat quality, adequate aircraft,RI and CI,alliances change distribution in your or their favour.