Hi!
I need some fast help! I'm getting those warnings for ALL my national routes... In which i dont have competition. The "overload" is apparently that I flight those 15-20 pax demand routes with Hawker Sydeley's with 48Y capacity. I dont think ist oversupplying it!!
I need fast help before they all get closed!
You dont think it is oversupply when one two of three seats are empty?
Already saw another post. Sorry, can be closed
p.s Im not going to get another fleet type for 8-9 routes :-\
check your pax demand on those routes, and remember whether it has plunged (sporadically in my case) or not.
it happened to me earlier today, and the problem is incorrect pax demand, and now it is ok.
Quote from: swiftus27 on August 25, 2010, 02:32:37 PM
You dont think it is oversupply when one two of three seats are empty?
Sami previously said that it's considered to be oversupplying if you put another flight on route already oversupplied by you.. This is really strange if you get oversupply warning for one flight...
You could simply fly "placeholders" for months this way... take a 747, figure out when you need it to take off and land... Lease for two years a low capacity pax plane and make sure it is taking off at the times you want them to. It still isnt hard to hog slots if you aren't stupid about it.
Just have the same problem here, i receive a message :
Notification from the Anti Monopoly Bureau,
The Game Rules state that airline is not allowed to oversupply routes with excess seat capacity to allow fair competition. The automatic checking system has found some of your routes to be in violation of these rules (you provide too much capacity on the routes, and are exceeding the limits set forth in the rules).
Please check these routes and reduce their capacity immediately so that they are no longer oversupplied against the rules. If changes are not made within 48 hours the system will close down these routes.
Routes in violation of the rules:
» COL481, EGKK - SKBO View route Route planning
» COL667, EGKK - SKBO View route Route planning
Please be aware that oversupplying a route is forbidden in the game rules and airlines violating the rules may be penalized.
But the big problem is that ANY other smaller plae can fly this route !!!!!!!
The first route is oversupply by 34 seats ???????
And the second one is because of hours of flight... it leave at 23h55 and not the second days... and now if i want to make change NO SLOT AVAILABLE !!!
WHAT THE PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM !!! like 10 years or more that i flow this route without problem !!!
SAMI ????
You are supplying 440+ seats on route with pax avg 180/daily on one weekday, that triggers it.
I just got one as well. I run a regional airline in ATB2 and just got this one.
I have two routes found to be "oversupplied" by the Anti Monopoly Buereau. One has 20 pax demand the other has 30 pax a day, but I'm serving them using my smallest plane, a Q400.
These are small, obscure routes than no one else is ever going to serve, so why shouldn't I be able to serve them? I understand what you're trying to do here, sami, but I think it applies more to bigger airports where someone is serving 2,000 seats on a 1,000 seat route. I don't think it's fair to penalize small airports who are never going to have passenger service if an airline has to buy a specific plane just to serve it.
Think of the poor people of Leige, Belgium! Now they'll have to take the car to Luxembourg. ;)
-Matt
Quote from: MattDell on August 25, 2010, 11:50:33 PM
I just got one as well. I run a regional airline in ATB2 and just got this one.
I have two routes found to be "oversupplied" by the Anti Monopoly Buereau. One has 20 pax demand the other has 30 pax a day, but I'm serving them using my smallest plane, a Q400.
These are small, obscure routes than no one else is ever going to serve, so why shouldn't I be able to serve them? I understand what you're trying to do here, sami, but I think it applies more to bigger airports where someone is serving 2,000 seats on a 1,000 seat route. I don't think it's fair to penalize small airports who are never going to have passenger service if an airline has to buy a specific plane just to serve it.
Think of the poor people of Leige, Belgium! Now they'll have to take the car to Luxembourg. ;)
-Matt
I totally agree! In MT2, my Bolivian airline would need Pipers to serve half the cities that are in the country. We used DH8s, but this might not work now.
Quote from: RushmoreAir on August 26, 2010, 12:37:05 AM
I totally agree! In MT2, my Bolivian airline would need Pipers to serve half the cities that are in the country. We used DH8s, but this might not work now.
Same here, I'm using DH8s at ATB for my domestic operations. Sometimes the flight demand show that I'm not oversupply the route, but sometimes it decreases so it changes to oversupply. To allow fair competition? I'm the only one flying out to these airports from my hub and the only airline based at Recife.
Modify your a/c to all premium seats..
And just a further point.... if I am, for example, using a 60 pax aircraft on a 20 pax route then that is not exactly a monopoly since I'm not creating any barriers for entry. The second an airline comes in with a 20 pax plane, my route would instantly be unprofitable and I would drop it.
I make a modest profit on my Luxembourg to Liege route, for example, but the economies would work much better for someone with a smaller plane to operate it. Until then, I should be allowed to earn my small profit.
-Matt
Quote from: Phetoy6 on August 26, 2010, 02:21:02 AM
Modify your a/c to all premium seats..
That would affect the 4-5 other routes I fly with that plane per day.
Quote from: MattDell on August 26, 2010, 02:22:03 AM
That would affect the 4-5 other routes I fly with that plane per day.
Again, I totally agree.
I got a warning for flying a route with demand of 535 pax a day with my A380 of 525 ???
Any comments? I am the only one flying the route and if you keep checking the demand every few secs the demand is more than supply, how can that be oversupply? I thought oversupply was when it goes above 200%
Regards
VJC
C'mon Sami, I can appreciate you putting in this feature to stop the whining and true cases of flooding routes, but you need to work on the logic behind this addition as it is completely flawed and if you are going to display the average daily demand then the formula should be based on that and you need to start hard coding demand and making it explicity clear what you are doing, especially considering your route demand engine, as defined, is so vague and constantly changing. You clearly state that is close to reality, but may be off by something like 30%. I didn't sign up to play an advanced math game...so if you are adding this feature then get your story straight.
I have an oversupply warning on Bangalore-Bhubeneswar (not the most lucrative route btw, but one where I'm making a decent profit). The average demand is 37 seats a day when I just checked and I use a 50 seat ERJ for 1 flight / day...350 seats per week vs demand of 259 seats per week or 135% supply....well within the guidleine...so per the rule of staying under 200% you have a completely flawed math if you are flagging me for this route...and apparently those of many others.
If you are going to claim a route has a certain average daily demand, I would think you're formula would be the said average demand x 7 x 2...otherwise it begs the question of what's the point if you can't even use an ERJ for 1 daily regional route? best I can figure you are basing this on each individual day, so yes the 50 seat ERJ exceeds the Saturday demand but is well within the Friday demand and well within the average weekly demand...so what gives??? >:(
seems like you are taking this game away from reality if these type of routes can't be served daily with a basic commuter plane. a lot of airlines still would schedule this type of route daily for passenger convenience even if saturday is less profitable and they are the only one providing the single daily flight.
you may also want to consider writing your logic in an "if" statement, as in: if there is more than one daily flight and weekly demand exceeds the coded average weekly demand *2 then issue a notice. The reality of an the airline business is airlines schedule planes to fly, not sit on the ground. so if you can make money by flying the plane on a short route, or on saturday when the business travellers are hopefully at home, then you do it in the real world. You may even offer a discount fare on saturday to attract leisure travellers and keep the cash flow going.
Utlimately, Sami, you need to really make your rule book much clearer as to what you are measuring if you are going to make this a guessing statistical exercise... if you are tying the 200% to each individual day; then stop displaying an average demand number and make it extremely explicit what you are measuing. I base my capacity on my weekly seats relative to the average daily demand * 7. So if you are basing it on the lowest daily demand for the week, then say that, since that makes many 1000s of route pairs that probably can't be served daily with a plane that is appropriate for the Monday/Friday demand.
I agree that at the very least the formula should be based on weekly, not daily demand. It would also help if the warning was ONLY triggered on routes with 2 or more airlines flying, not one. In JA2 most of my routes out of my Texas hubs are 40 per week, so I have a 66 seat DC-9 on them and the triggers are coming...Saturdays most likely where the demand may be around 25-28. Sorry, Dothan, Alabama, youre losing your DC-9 :(
I like the idea behind this, especially for the big US carriers going crazy on ORD, LAX, and ATL....but some refinement is in order.
Best,
brendanosx
Quote from: spiff23 on August 26, 2010, 05:06:44 AM
The average demand is 37 seats a day and I use a 50 seat ERJ for 1 flight / day..
now that's almost double BIA, ahahah. :P LOL , just kidding mate, I completely agree with you. A great new feature introduced by Sami, but has to tweaked a lot more.
How about a BETA for all the new features??? I am bit bored of ATB, Will be intrested in testing some new features, what you reckon BIA?
Regards
VJC
well not exactly bored, but now annoyed ;) I'm not sure what's worse...being flagged for an A380 or an ERJ ::)...especially considering our friendly competition :laugh:
Quote from: spiff23 on August 26, 2010, 05:50:09 AM
well not exactly bored, but now annoyed ;) I'm not sure what's worse...being flagged for an A380 or an ERJ ::)...especially considering our friendly competition :laugh:
LOL, we have been good considering we are big in that area and have kept our paths pretty much parallel. This oversupply mesages bug you especially when u wake up and sit with a cuppa trying to figure out what is really wrong.
VJC
hey vfly, check your A380 demand on the outbound and inbound. I think we are being penalized because of the bizarre demand logic for india and other emerging market countries. I'm getting a notice too on bangalore-Zurich. I'm the only airline on the route. Bangalore-Zurich, I'm well under 200%. However, becuase the return demand is 1/2 the originating demand, I'm actually over on the return route on 2 days.
So sami, before I blow a gasket, any thought as to why your demand engine is penalizing anyone running an airline in India, Egypt, etc.? I find it very hard to believe that every day 100s of people are emigrating from these countries to Europe and America and never return back home (maybe some, but not 100s / day...I think the EU and US Congress would put a stop to it). Some of these demand differentials are beyond ridiculous...and yet daily/weekly we figure out how to make these long-hauls work and yet now being penalized.
I'd say if you start fining/closing routes in these situations that at this point it's easier to just not pay/play as every India-Europe/North America route has this demand differential and hence neither vFly, (most likely ratz...he can comment on his own) or me, should be flying the lower demand routes to Europe or some of the high-demand routes for that matter...it would also seriously undermine any future desire to try basing an airline in an emerging market in any future game
The oversupply warning works just fine and is not flawed. First one should always check that you read the correct chart (= click on the globe icon in that message you got to view the supply/demand chart!). In some cases people have had accidentially two flights dep back home on the same day making a big oversupply there.
For very small routes the warning threshold was adjusted a bit already yesterday, but I will adjust that a bit further since it is only a hardcoded limit so far.
One picture example, this saturday service is oversupply (427 vs 158) and warning was received for that. That route even has other airlines on it. It cannot be really based on the total weekly average as you could put 1000 seats on saturday just to annoy someone and leave other days empty. The baseline for the comparison is the average of the whole week's demand (added with some notable margin, so it's not 200% exactly) and it compares each flight day and segment individually.
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Quote from: spiff23 on August 26, 2010, 05:06:44 AM
coding demand and making it explicity clear what you are doing, especially considering your route demand engine, as defined, is so vague and constantly changing. You clearly state that is close to reality, but may be off by something like 30%.
What are you talking about? Sorry, I am confused, did you really expect that this software would be able to produce real pax demand figures from all possible route combinations in the world, for all possible years? (since there is 2000+ airports and timespan is 50+ years too) Or what was the point of this message, as I didn't get it completely? Mimicing real routes is not the goal here (although it does set a certain baseline with the current demand model), and in the future I am hoping to move it away from this real-world-stats based approach to completely calculated system where the players can truly build demand and hubs and so on.
Quote from: spiff23 on August 26, 2010, 05:06:44 AM
I have an oversupply warning on Bangalore-Bhubeneswar
Check the return flight, 100 seats on 30 seat demand. You have some scheduling issue there since two flights dep back home on the same day, instead of sat-sun which has been your intention I believe.
The only comment I have is the same one i made in my alliance forum about these routes. 100 seat supply overseas (denver-europe)....someone could pick up this route...after all this time its me, with, yes a 777 because that's my fleet choice for routes that will make "bank" on it. OK, yea, definitely oversupply...but i'm the only one flying it and I think the only one that will ever fly it...and I'm making profits...yes, small ones, but it works for me. I seriously doubt someone will put a 767 on these routes. Oh well, have to reschedule now...lol.
Quote from: sami on August 26, 2010, 09:06:52 AM
Check the return flight, 100 seats on 30 seat demand. You have some scheduling issue there since two flights dep back home on the same day, instead of sat-sun which has been your intention I believe.
So sami, as spiff23 said, some routes have weird demand. The following are not actual nos, i am just recreating for example and illustration purposes only,
BOM-ORD {outbound} demand around 520 supply around 525 ( 1 x A380)
ORD-BOM {inbound} demand drops to 250 and supply 525 (1 x A380)
In these situations what do be do? leave half the A380 in ORD????
In ATB1 I had a similar issue, BOM-LAX outbound was 800 pax and inbound was 250. I submitted a bug report in the very end and you said this was a big difference and normally difference would be around 100-150, this is more than half.
How can we send our metal 6000+nm when the demand keeps fluctuating so much and we get all these warnings. I am not arguing here Sami, just want to know what would you do if you were in our shoes and send ur A380 just to see it come back half empty. The new system is a great step, but you have to work on it and we shall help you (as always).
Regards
VJC
hmm, I though that back-forth demand change (a bug clearly if the variation is more than ~20%) was already fixed a long time ago. I have to check it again, in the meantime you can leave those routes like they are, I think it's a quick fix. Since the "competition checker" only compares to the actual demand, and it works just fine, but didn't realize this issue.
Oh, and VJ. You DO have oversupply there too: https://www.airwaysim.com/game/Routes/Planning/KORD/VABB
Edit:
Checked that route, KORD-VABB demand is about 390/d, and VABB-KORD is 490/d (so not 250 vs 525). There's a slight difference there but smaller than I thought so I believe that may be normal and "no bug" after all.
And KLAX-VOBB is 320/d and VOBB-KLAX is 300/d on average, so that's fine too. (both of these figures are the TRUE demands, you may see them a bit differently depending on how "good" your staff is)
QuoteI will adjust that a bit further since it is only a hardcoded limit so far.
So am I good on ELLX to EBLG in ATB2 now?
Also, any thoughts on it not being considered oversupply if you only fly one plane there?
Quote from: sami on August 26, 2010, 09:23:08 AM
Oh, and VJ. You DO have oversupply there too: https://www.airwaysim.com/game/Routes/Planning/KORD/VABB
LOL , cheers Sami, thnx for the link, you helped me saved some monies :) But there are some routes, esp North American sectors have very weird demand. I shall sort the above said route out.
VJC
Quote from: V.Castelino on August 26, 2010, 09:40:07 AM
But there are some routes, esp North American sectors have very weird demand.
Lemme know the route-pairs.
Quote from: MattDell on August 26, 2010, 09:39:01 AM
Also, any thoughts on it not being considered oversupply if you only fly one plane there?
Added also so that if you have only 1x day and limited seat supply (<100pax or similar), it disregards the route.
Quote from: sami on August 26, 2010, 09:43:34 AM
Lemme know the route-pairs.
Will do will keep a eye out. But i guess N.America needs a bit stable traffic, if not high , atleast stable (both sectors) so we know what aircrafts to use on these routes.
Thanks for the quick reply, the monopoly guy is good thing you invented , LIKE IT ;D
VJC
No need to keep an eye anymore, I already adjusted it a bit, as the diff. between some locations was too high still (>25%).
Quote from: sami on August 26, 2010, 09:43:34 AMAdded also so that if you have only 1x day and limited seat supply (<100pax or similar), it disregards the route.
Thanks, sami!! 8)
I think once a day flights should not trigger the Monopoly Bureau, no mather how much oversupply they create, because the pax calculation doesn't give any advantage for doing that.
Quote from: sami on August 26, 2010, 09:43:34 AM
Added also so that if you have only 1x day and limited seat supply (<100pax or similar), it disregards the route.
That's a good addition. 1x day flight should be ignored alltogether, IMO, regardless of passenger supply and demand on the route.