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Author Topic: Cargo Potential demand ?  (Read 133 times)

Offline exaz

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Cargo Potential demand ?
« on: May 19, 2021, 03:09:07 AM »
Hi all, I have doubts on how exactly it works.
i have opened cargo routes where the potential demand looked great, current demand being much lower'
My expectation was that, offering daily routes, the current would gradually rise to potential level.
this is not happening ::)
I have looked around but still don't get it.
Thanks for any clarification  :)

Offline groundbum2

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Re: Cargo Potential demand ?
« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2021, 06:38:17 AM »
perhaps you could give us a specific route to look at?

You have the right idea, but it does take a few months for potential cargo to move between airports, or to grow where there was no cargo service before.

Don't forget CBD is *city*, so you are competing against other airports that serve that city, or specifically the squares around that city. So for London, Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, Luton etc all serve the same set of squares. So you could start a Heathrow-Miami service, but if somebody starts Luton-Miami then the potential will be split between Luton and Heathrow. CBD also works at the other end, so if people have Luton-Fort Lauderdale that will steal some of the potential cargo.

The split is determined IMHO by the CAPACITY of the cargo holds on the route. So if Luton-Miami has a 727F (25K?) and Heathrow-Miami has MD11F (75K) then Luton will get 1/4th the potential and Heathrow 3/4. Once potential has shifted to an airport, then which flight gets which cargo is determined imho just like pax, so frequency. Somebody with 2 days flight as opposed to an airline with 1 daily flight will get 2/3rds of the cargo from that airport.

Simon

Offline groundbum2

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Re: Cargo Potential demand ?
« Reply #2 on: May 19, 2021, 06:38:55 AM »
short answer - check for competing routes to nearby airports at each end.

Offline exaz

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Re: Cargo Potential demand ?
« Reply #3 on: May 19, 2021, 07:04:55 AM »
Tnx GB2,
as example route LIN-MAN
I have a 100 route image and after months current demand remains 10% of potential and looking supply at MXP/BGY-MAN
does not give me answers
 ???

Offline Sami

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    • AirwaySim - Are you the next Richard Branson?
Re: Cargo Potential demand ?
« Reply #4 on: May 19, 2021, 07:14:18 AM »

Offline exaz

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Re: Cargo Potential demand ?
« Reply #5 on: May 19, 2021, 09:11:15 AM »
Thanks Sami,
I read it, but more confused then ever.
How is one supposed to handle such a system?
Should one check all routes between competing airports in both catchment areas, and that would be a lot in my example route, and find out some mathematical formula that tells me whether it's feasible to open a cargo route or not?

Offline groundbum2

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Re: Cargo Potential demand ?
« Reply #6 on: May 19, 2021, 09:21:51 AM »
yep

Generally though you'll find all the smaller airports can be excluded as their runways are too short or not enough infrastructure for VLs or they're small enough their radius doesn't catch much traffic. So that takes it down to 2 or 3 big airports to check. So for Heathrow I wouldn't check Farnborough as nobody will be using it.

Simon

Offline tungstennedge

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Re: Cargo Potential demand ?
« Reply #7 on: May 20, 2021, 09:19:33 AM »
Thanks Sami,
I read it, but more confused then ever.
How is one supposed to handle such a system?
Should one check all routes between competing airports in both catchment areas, and that would be a lot in my example route, and find out some mathematical formula that tells me whether it's feasible to open a cargo route or not?


Yes, there is a decently easy way.

Take a read through this:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1H8S4WmMZ2BIfSodx5r5IYW-dWPXGhB04weVfZ3lge18/edit?usp=sharing

Its quite long, so to summarize, all the information you need is available in the bar graph. It the current demand is near zero, usually 400-1500kg, then it means the route has competition, and you would have to examine nearby routes to find out where the cargo is going. However, when there is no competition, the demand will be have a certain ratio between potential and current demand. In LHR, the ratio is 7:1 (potential/current). 2:1 for HND. Every airport has a different ratio. Keep in mind, there must be zero supply for a route to make this ratio accurate.

For your base milano the ratio is 3:1, for for a route like Milano-KMAF, you have zero competiton and can get 100% of the potential demand by opeing a route there. There situations, where the ratio could be worse, like 6:1, and you can still get all the potential, but the having a better ratio just means there is a much higher likely hood there is no competion. Once you get used to the way cargo behaves, you never have to even look at nearby airports as the one bargraph gives all the information you need, just takes some time to get used to though.
« Last Edit: May 20, 2021, 08:04:27 PM by tungstennedge »

Online knobbygb

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Re: Cargo Potential demand ?
« Reply #8 on: May 21, 2021, 05:51:27 AM »

I read it, but more confused then ever.
How is one supposed to handle such a system?

It actually makes it more realistic.  In real life, the airlines can't just look up a graph of potential demand, they have to be aware of the market around them and kind of guess based on research.  It can be frustrating but I like it.  It makes the game a but less 'procedural'.  I think that when (IF!) city-based demand ever comes to pax. operations it's going to upset a lot of people though.

Offline groundbum2

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Re: Cargo Potential demand ?
« Reply #9 on: May 21, 2021, 07:27:18 AM »
or think of Ryanair that started flying to small airports and by sheer force of will created millions of new passengers that suddenly realised they could travel for £9.99 from obscure places (Doncaster) to obscure places (Perpignan). Apologies to residents of such places but it's not London or Paris is it?

;-) Simon

Offline gazzz0x2z

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Re: Cargo Potential demand ?
« Reply #10 on: May 21, 2021, 01:06:18 PM »
or think of Ryanair that started flying to small airports and by sheer force of will created millions of new passengers that suddenly realised they could travel for £9.99 from obscure places (Doncaster) to obscure places (Perpignan). Apologies to residents of such places but it's not London or Paris is it?

;-) Simon

As a former heavy user of BVA-WRO, I concur. I'd love to see a MPL-WRO some time...

Offline tungstennedge

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Re: Cargo Potential demand ?
« Reply #11 on: May 21, 2021, 08:16:53 PM »
or think of Ryanair that started flying to small airports and by sheer force of will created millions of new passengers that suddenly realised they could travel for £9.99 from obscure places (Doncaster) to obscure places (Perpignan). Apologies to residents of such places but it's not London or Paris is it?

;-) Simon
I wish north america had ulcc's. 1000km flights are like 150+ dollars here

 

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