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Author Topic: Did passenger demand go down?  (Read 489 times)

Offline NickSTL

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Did passenger demand go down?
« on: August 24, 2020, 02:05:44 AM »
I noticed a number of my routes out of Athens performing poorly recently and when I checked the route information pages, I saw that passenger demand seemed to be going down by a lot.

I know that those demand figures are only estimates and are programmed to fluctuate by a little bit. And there are also temporary events that either increase or decrease demand but those are clearly marked on the route information pages.

In this case, however, I have some routes that on Friday had at least 150-160 demand going down to 100-110. I didn't take screenshots so my memory might be wrong but I usually pay a lot of attention to choosing the right aircraft types for a route, so I am very surprised that on many of the routes I started, my own supply outstrips demand.

Is this normal and/or did anyone notice something similar?

Thanks.

Offline Andre090904

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Re: Did passenger demand go down?
« Reply #1 on: August 24, 2020, 02:52:06 AM »
Hi Nick,

When you check the demand on a specific route, the displayed number is only an estimate. In fact, if you refresh that page, you will most likely get a different number. So when you refresh the page 5 or 6 times, you will be able to see the average demand by comparing the different numbers.

I could imagine that you checked the page just once, saw 150 demand, and scheduled the route. Now you checked again and see demand decreased to 110. But in reality, the 150 estimate was just on the higher end, while 110 may be on the lower end of the estimates. In other words, maybe the actual demand (average) is somewhere around 130.
« Last Edit: August 24, 2020, 02:55:17 AM by Andre090904 »

Offline NickSTL

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Re: Did passenger demand go down?
« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2020, 05:30:52 AM »
Thanks for your response.

Yes, that could have been the case. Maybe I just got overexcited when I saw those good numbers and didn't do enough refreshes when I first checked.

It just seemed to be fluctuating more than normal because now even after 10 refreshes or so I cannot see those original numbers anymore, so I wanted to see if anyone else experienced something similar.

Now I hope that demand will increase soon so that those planes can get more full.  :laugh:

Offline Talentz

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Re: Did passenger demand go down?
« Reply #3 on: August 24, 2020, 05:56:08 AM »
...  The estimate you see is based off your staff. The staff's Morale effects the estimation accuracy. Since its the start of the game and morale is not high, their will be more variation in the "estimation accuracy" displayed. Give it some time and the fluctuation will be lower.



Talentz


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Online groundbum2

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Re: Did passenger demand go down?
« Reply #4 on: August 24, 2020, 06:48:17 AM »
you can also click on the link top right that shows the return leg, that will show another auto-generated random number, so you better gauge whether the route is worth it. As others have said I wouldn't be surprised by a 110-160 swing.

Simon

Offline gazzz0x2z

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Re: Did passenger demand go down?
« Reply #5 on: August 24, 2020, 06:53:34 AM »
I definitively had a stop in LF growth on my DXB-SYZ route, while RI was growing. DXB-DUB also seems to be underperforming since 2-3 weeks, while it should still be growing.

bigger routes seem unaffected. Of course, that's just limited perception through a handful of measurement points.

EDIT : huge difference on DXB-HEL. I had kept the record 360 demand. Now, it's consistantly between 180 &200. I would never have scheduled there that early had I known...

EDIT2 : DXB-LIS down from 400 to 240. DXB-SIN up from 1400 to 1600. DXB-HKG up from 1500 to 2200. DXB-MIR down from 500 to 330. DXB-MAN down from 500 to 400.

6 real hours mapping the whole demand from DXB, and all this work is already good to throw to the trash bin 36 real hours later. And no, the variation does not explain that : it was around 20% of variation, I did several tests back then. DXB-HEL was never below 300. Now, it's never above 200.
« Last Edit: August 24, 2020, 07:25:54 AM by gazzz0x2z »

Online JumboShrimp

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Re: Did passenger demand go down?
« Reply #6 on: August 24, 2020, 07:37:36 AM »
I am seeing some strange numbers myself.  I had:

IST-VIE demand as 500 and now it is in 300-320 range.
IST-PRG at 440 now at 270-290
IST-HAJ at 520 now at 340-400
IST-AYT at 640 now at 390-470

Edit:

Another perfect example why the randomization is such a bad idea.  First answer of most people is that this is just SamiRandomness going on, while something real is going on, and the only reason it was spotted is that it is too big to miss.
« Last Edit: August 24, 2020, 07:51:45 AM by JumboShrimp »

Online Sami

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Re: Did passenger demand go down?
« Reply #7 on: August 24, 2020, 09:01:56 AM »
If (and when) this affects more than a handful of routes then it seems to be a discrepancy with the values calculated at the game's initial creation and the runtime demand calculations. Which isn't normal since the transitions should be smooth and predictable. But of course the demand can go down, as well as it can go up, but in normal cases at a new game the trend is up since we're "catching" the normal demand levels at the first game year (from the artificially low levels for the new and empty world).

Offline gazzz0x2z

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Re: Did passenger demand go down?
« Reply #8 on: August 24, 2020, 09:15:40 AM »
If (and when) this affects more than a handful of routes then it seems to be a discrepancy with the values calculated at the game's initial creation and the runtime demand calculations. Which isn't normal since the transitions should be smooth and predictable. But of course the demand can go down, as well as it can go up, but in normal cases at a new game the trend is up since we're "catching" the normal demand levels at the first game year (from the artificially low levels for the new and empty world).

That's the sense of my messages. I'd like to know if it was working as designed. I mean, losing 20% demand on DXB-SYZ is below the rounding error, and I'm not complaining about that. But if we have to expect most demands between 1000 & 3000NM and below 500 demand to decrease stronlgy, we need to know it may happen. I wouldn't have done such a torough route mapping. I just had a loo, and saw DXB-LIM went down from 400 to 250. I'm not planning to go there any soon(other priorities), but the problem seems general.

In recent modern games I did (previous MT, Asian challenge), I did notice demand in the beginning (first few months) did tend to skyrocket for the big destinations, and to stagnate for smaller ones. That's fair to me. I don't know if it's working as designed, but it's not deadly. if it shows 90, it's staying at 90. All risks we did have were good surprises.

Seems to me initial demand was buffed up compared to previous game worlds, and then it rebalanced towards usual values - which made demand for big destinations raise less than usually (still +40% on DXB-HKG), but collapse on smaller lines. Which is an unexpected challenge. Just an impression on my side, what's happening under the covers is certainly different. I can only speak about what I'm seeing.

EDIT : it was SYZ, not SYD
« Last Edit: August 24, 2020, 12:54:29 PM by gazzz0x2z »

Offline Talentz

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Re: Did passenger demand go down?
« Reply #9 on: August 24, 2020, 09:46:12 AM »
Another perfect example why the randomization is such a bad idea.  First answer of most people is that this is just SamiRandomness going on, while something real is going on, and the only reason it was spotted is that it is too big to miss.

Well, either their is something wrong in the initial calculations or their is more to the "estimation accuracy" then staff morale effects. Sami could always explain in detail how it works for us...


Talentz
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Offline schro

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Re: Did passenger demand go down?
« Reply #10 on: August 24, 2020, 12:51:18 PM »
In the gameworld announcement/description, the fact that demand is low and will grow is stated three times. If demand isn't growing across the board, it's more a bug than a feature to me as I'm sure many players' strategy takes that assumption into account when deciding where to fly and what to fly. It's a bit early in the timeline of the game to have a "surprise"....

Online Sami

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Re: Did passenger demand go down?
« Reply #11 on: August 24, 2020, 03:47:46 PM »
it seems to be a discrepancy with the values calculated at the game's initial creation and the runtime demand calculations.

I believe this has been the case (though don't know exactly why yet). I made some adjustments yesterday and the figures should bounce back soon.

Offline NickSTL

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Re: Did passenger demand go down?
« Reply #12 on: August 24, 2020, 04:57:25 PM »
Okay, good to hear that there was in fact something going on and that it wasn't just my imagination.  :laugh:

And we learned something about gaz's strategies going into a new game world (i.e., 6 hours of demand mapping), so that's a plus too. :)

@Sami: Thanks for fixing this so quickly. I did in fact notice a considerable increase in demand toward the end of the last game week after a few in-game weeks that were most flatlining.

Online JumboShrimp

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Re: Did passenger demand go down?
« Reply #13 on: August 24, 2020, 05:13:11 PM »
Well, all the changes of the discrepancies from initial values seem to be in one direction (down) while anticipation was for that demand values to be going up.

Online JumboShrimp

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Re: Did passenger demand go down?
« Reply #14 on: August 24, 2020, 07:04:25 PM »
Seems like the demand is back to normal.

Online JumboShrimp

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Re: Did passenger demand go down?
« Reply #15 on: August 25, 2020, 12:31:15 AM »
Well, not exactly fully back to Normal.

I used a highly scientific approach to find out the current demand (Refreshing 10 times, writing down 10 results and averaging them), and I got demand for IST-AYT as 494, 4% short of 514 on the game opening day, while we should be higher.

BTW, having to refresh 10 times to find out the demand of the route I am already flying is not a good idea.  The routes I am already flying should be automatically showing real demand with 100% accuracy.

Where this is really, and I mean really annoying is having to set an oversupply cap on a 7 day independent routes, 7 times, and missing the target because of the randomness....

That's 3 big (lack of) quality of life items in a single situation:
- randomizing pax demand (we are living with accurate cargo demand and sky did not fall)
- having to edit 7 routes one at the time
- Oversupply warning for single flight.

Online JumboShrimp

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Re: Did passenger demand go down?
« Reply #16 on: August 26, 2020, 05:38:29 AM »
Here is some feedback on initial state vs. later calculated state.

The only reason this bug can persist > a decade is because we have randomization in place and bugs can't be caught.

Routes with demand:
  • Under 100 pax - 95%+ nearly all went down in demand
  • 100 - 500 pax - 75% went down in demand
  • Over 500 pax demand - Majority went up, some doubled

I have noticed this in numerous game worlds, where the biggest routes grow the most and the mid to smallest routes stagnated.  But we can't really test anything because of the randomization.

Offline gazzz0x2z

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Re: Did passenger demand go down?
« Reply #17 on: August 26, 2020, 06:41:15 AM »
I have the same observation than Jumbo. Low demand stagnates, while high demand explodes early in the game. I don't know if it's WAD or if it's a glitch.

Offline Zorak

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Re: Did passenger demand go down?
« Reply #18 on: October 17, 2020, 11:06:25 AM »
Maybe I am not paying enough attention ig, but I do not seem to have this problem; I did find that my F70s LF is going down but there is no real significant change in demand

Offline Andre090904

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Re: Did passenger demand go down?
« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2020, 03:34:22 AM »
New competition on your routes? Also, try resetting prices which might do the trick.

 

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