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Author Topic: [-] Dump plane with AI broker  (Read 1004 times)

Online DanDan

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[-] Dump plane with AI broker
« on: June 01, 2020, 11:34:33 AM »
Since AI brokers can undercut prices that airline brokers can offer, it would be nice if the "scrap plane" button would be a "sell aircraft to broker" button for all the aircraft that are not yet old enough/in a condition bad enough to be scrapped.

In that case a very low amount of money is being offered for the plane, and the AI broker purchases the plane - similar to scrapping, but the aircraft can be offered by the AI broker on the UM later on.
« Last Edit: December 26, 2020, 11:45:26 AM by Sami »

Offline Sami

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Re: Dump plane with AI broker
« Reply #1 on: June 01, 2020, 12:26:29 PM »
This is actually a decent idea in my mind, and would probably help in plane circulation and also in immediate cash crisis.

AI offering price could be around midpoint between scrap price and AI-calculated fair market price. So one couldn't profit with this even if some very cheap plane from AI brokers would be available in the market.

Although a minus point would be that it's not a good market model where someone will always buy the aircraft, no matter what.

Other opinions?

Offline groundbum2

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Re: Dump plane with AI broker
« Reply #2 on: June 01, 2020, 12:49:45 PM »
there's much higher priority items we've asked for... is my opinion.. in a world where AWS needs more developers working on it..

S

Offline dmoose42

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Re: Dump plane with AI broker
« Reply #3 on: June 01, 2020, 01:22:30 PM »
I don't mind the idea - and it seems like it would be fairly easy to implement. The one point I would raise is it should only be an option for say planes with a certain condition (>80%?) and less than 6 years old or something. The thing I can see happening is a lot of people auto-dumping planes right before the first D-check. So alternatively, maybe the plane would need at least 2 years before the next D-check to be eligible?

Also, if people can auto-sell past year 10, no one will scrap, and instead will sell. Now maybe that's a good thing (personally I think it would help the UM a lot).

Just a few thoughts to consider, but overall I think it's a positive idea.

Online DanDan

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Re: Dump plane with AI broker
« Reply #4 on: June 01, 2020, 01:36:56 PM »
i think it is a quick fix. dont care much about the prices, but implementation should be rather a small thing to do and would help with erroneous purchases and such. i think that it should be close to scrap price somewhere, or the "minimum minimum price" you were able to offer for on the used market... but since you cant do that anymore, it would at least remove parking costs and give a token amount.

Offline LemonButt

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Re: Dump plane with AI broker
« Reply #5 on: June 01, 2020, 04:08:17 PM »
I'm going to go ahead and beat a dead horse again.  None of this will work with the underlying "fair market value" numbers being based on a static value versus one responding to actual market conditions.  I bought Il114 in HaF for ~$5m that had a "fair market value" of $10m.  Even if the value were something in between scrap value and "fair market value" it can be used to print money (or in the Il114 case, basically own/operate it for free for many years) and abused just like the asset-backed loans can be exploited today.

I like the idea of clicking a button to sell it immediately to a broker, but unless the brokers are smarter than they are today it's not going to work as intended.

Offline schro

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Re: Dump plane with AI broker
« Reply #6 on: June 01, 2020, 07:19:09 PM »
This would certainly take the hassle out of selling a fleet and removing the misery of getting scrap prices at the same time.

I would think that the offer price would have something to do with the appeal of the plane as well and these attributes would adjust the offer somewhere between fair value and scrap. For example(s):
1. Age of the plane (newer plane is closer to fair, older closer to scrap).
2. Economic viability of the plane type based upon year (A brand new DC-6 in 2010 might as well be scrap). Could be measured by number of years since production line closed.
3. General popularity of the type (could be measured based upon production line queue, proportion of planes under 10 years in service vs for sale, new production price indicator, etc.)
4. Number of planes being sold at one time (the more you sell, the less per each you get, as it's that many more than have to be "placed" by AI brokers). Note to do this one you'd want to do a look back over a few years to prevent players from selling 5 per game day/week/month to get the higher price.

As the offered value approaches scrap, there could be a limit where the broker would decline to make an offer or specific attributes where the broker would decline to make an offer.

Then there's the consideration of plane flipping - brokers doing cheap sales could end up buying it back for more. Perhaps a minimum holding period would be helpful here, though, airlines with brand new planes coming off the line that they can't afford to pay for could be a good use for this...

Offline sanabas

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Re: Dump plane with AI broker
« Reply #7 on: June 01, 2020, 10:23:51 PM »
Although a minus point would be that it's not a good market model where someone will always buy the aircraft, no matter what.

Other opinions?

Scrap merchants buy the plane no matter what, it's annoying to have a bunch of planes you know you can't sell and are years away from turning 10 and being scrappable. Only option is to put them in storage and remember to scrap them later.  If I could sell them to the brokers, or to the scrap merchants, for even scrap value, I would. Scrap value + 10% would be a bonus.

Also, if people can auto-sell past year 10, no one will scrap, and instead will sell. Now maybe that's a good thing (personally I think it would help the UM a lot).

Don't think it'll change the UM. If the plane is likely to sell on the UM at a reasonable price, there's no reason to scrap it/autosell to brokers in the first place. The only stuff to autosell to the brokers is stuff that either nobody else uses, or stuff that the UM is flooded with, e.g. 5 year old connies/DC-6s once the first couple of big airlines have transitioned away from them.

I think the even easier solution would be to remove the 10 years old restriction on scrapping. There doesn't seem to be any reason or need for it.

Offline groundbum2

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Re: Dump plane with AI broker
« Reply #8 on: June 01, 2020, 11:07:12 PM »
the AI brokers do buy planes now. I've had planes listed for sale and got notification an AI broker has bought it. They have to be super cheap though!

S

Offline gazzz0x2z

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Re: Dump plane with AI broker
« Reply #9 on: June 02, 2020, 01:12:35 PM »
the AI brokers do buy planes now. I've had planes listed for sale and got notification an AI broker has bought it. They have to be super cheap though!

S

same here. Try to sell 20 years old A148s at minimum price (once minimum prices did drop), and IA brokers will purchase 2-3 per year.

Online DanDan

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Re: Dump plane with AI broker
« Reply #10 on: June 02, 2020, 04:25:21 PM »
same here. Try to sell 20 years old A148s at minimum price (once minimum prices did drop), and IA brokers will purchase 2-3 per year.

at the current min price? or the real minimum price before it was removed?

Offline gazzz0x2z

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Re: Dump plane with AI broker
« Reply #11 on: June 03, 2020, 11:42:42 AM »
at the current min price? or the real minimum price before it was removed?

Excellent remark. I have absolutely no clue. I didn't scrap planes since the new rule (got rid of my CRJs in HaTf before that). It was the minimum once lowered. A plane worth 10M$ had a minimum around 7M$,and after a few months, you could lower at 4M$. Then would the brokers buy it. Now that the minimum is probably around 9M$, my experience is obsolete.

Offline sanabas

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Re: Dump plane with AI broker
« Reply #12 on: June 03, 2020, 03:21:13 PM »
The minimum price dropping should return, I think. The new changes will make it impossible to sell many used planes, because you'll only ever be able to list them for well above what the brokers are already selling for.

Offline LemonButt

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Re: Dump plane with AI broker
« Reply #13 on: June 03, 2020, 03:33:37 PM »
In terms of a short term fix on this, could functionality be built to simply check a box to for "automatic pricing" where you select a time range (2-4 weeks) and the aircraft is price is automatically dropped everyday.  For example, if the "fair price" is $100m and the scrap price is $20m (or whatever the minimum price brokers buy at) and you select 3 weeks, the game will automatically drop the price incrementally from $100m to $20m over the time period.  If it's 3 weeks that is 21 days and for an $80m price drop would effectively mean a ~$4m price reduction everyday until it is automagically purchased by a broker when it hits $20m.  I think this is the best solution because if a broker has the opportunity to buy it cheap, a player should also have the opportunity.  This could potentially be exploited by alliances, but since the aircraft is listed publicly and there is no coordinated timing, non-alliance players have equal opportunity to "poach" the aircraft.  The net result is that you are "dumping plane to AI broker" in a 2 week period, but it could be less than 2 weeks if a player pulls the trigger to get it.  The listing would allow you to buy or lease--the lease would effectively be a leaseback where a broker buys it for the market price and it's leased to the player in order to create liquidity (if it's buy only this limits the players who can get the aircraft).

Online DanDan

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Re: Dump plane with AI broker
« Reply #14 on: June 03, 2020, 04:20:50 PM »
In terms of a short term fix on this, could functionality be built to simply check a box to for "automatic pricing" where you select a time range (2-4 weeks) and the aircraft is price is automatically dropped everyday.  For example, if the "fair price" is $100m and the scrap price is $20m (or whatever the minimum price brokers buy at) and you select 3 weeks, the game will automatically drop the price incrementally from $100m to $20m over the time period.  If it's 3 weeks that is 21 days and for an $80m price drop would effectively mean a ~$4m price reduction everyday until it is automagically purchased by a broker when it hits $20m.  I think this is the best solution because if a broker has the opportunity to buy it cheap, a player should also have the opportunity.  This could potentially be exploited by alliances, but since the aircraft is listed publicly and there is no coordinated timing, non-alliance players have equal opportunity to "poach" the aircraft.  The net result is that you are "dumping plane to AI broker" in a 2 week period, but it could be less than 2 weeks if a player pulls the trigger to get it.  The listing would allow you to buy or lease--the lease would effectively be a leaseback where a broker buys it for the market price and it's leased to the player in order to create liquidity (if it's buy only this limits the players who can get the aircraft).

i absolutely agree. there should be a feature for planes to be auctioned off - worst case it goes to the AI brokers at ~scrap value after 1 month or similar. of course: only for "open" sales, and not for sales to a specific customer.

Offline gazzz0x2z

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Re: Dump plane with AI broker
« Reply #15 on: June 04, 2020, 11:42:27 AM »
i absolutely agree. there should be a feature for planes to be auctioned off - worst case it goes to the AI brokers at ~scrap value after 1 month or similar. of course: only for "open" sales, and not for sales to a specific customer.

I believe you're on something : go back to the old system, and replace alliance minimum by "minimum for a reserved sale". Simple, and both problems solved.

Online DanDan

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Re: Dump plane with AI broker
« Reply #16 on: June 04, 2020, 12:36:26 PM »
I believe you're on something : go back to the old system, and replace alliance minimum by "minimum for a reserved sale". Simple, and both problems solved.

well, plus make the price go slowly (within 24 or 48-real-life-h) from minimum alliance to total minimum, so that two airlines cant fix a pick-up time; other airlines can see the plane, check it out... wait possibly, to see if the price drops further, and then pick up even cheaper (or someone else is buying in the meantime). its called dutch auction... its done for flowers: prices drop constantly until someone buys.

(some alliances apparently have active skype/discord channels, and airlines may communicate privately between each other to arrange that the plane is picked up before others can see it... and it seems to be an issue that prices are "undercut")

Online DanDan

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Re: Dump plane with AI broker
« Reply #17 on: June 22, 2020, 06:51:22 AM »
this is just ridiculous... i am selling at min price, but how can i compete with AI brokers!? i just want to get rid of some trash!  :-[ :laugh:

...feel like an 11 year old aircraft for double the price of an 8 year old one? anyone? anyone? anyone?

Offline groundbum2

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Re: Dump plane with AI broker
« Reply #18 on: June 22, 2020, 08:06:07 AM »
I suspect a lot of real world airline CEOs are in your shoes right now - sitting with excess stock they'd love to sell rather than scrap. A380s cheap anyone?

S

Offline gazzz0x2z

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Re: Dump plane with AI broker
« Reply #19 on: June 22, 2020, 12:05:01 PM »
I suspect a lot of real world airline CEOs are in your shoes right now - sitting with excess stock they'd love to sell rather than scrap. A380s cheap anyone?

S

anything that flies and is not cargo or military, actually  :(

 

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