Industry downturn

[mp81]

Anyone else wondering how secure their job is at the moment?

[gazzz0x2z]

I work in a company doing software for hospitals. Considering my country president said yesterday that no money will be spared for the health system, I'm probably luckier than most. But I am not blind. The city where I live in has a strong touristic aspect, the season is about to begin, and many are gonna suffer a lot. Keeping one's job when everyone loses it besides you is not a pleasant situation to be.

[Tauge]

I'm in medical device manufacture, though our company's primarily in electronics and auto parts. My plant won't feel it much, even if this turns into a general recession. The rest of the company that's another story. My wife's an ICU nurse, so I suspect there's going to be a lot of overtime hours in her future.

As for the subject at hand, I did some reading the other day on who was believed to be the most vulnerable. Norwegian seems to be the safest bet for the next to fall. There's also the question of how much some governments are willing to shovel into some of the weaker flag carriers. Alitalia, Korean Air, are certainly staring down the barrel of a gun. Airlines here in the US seem to be in generally good shape, the only airline that looks like it could go down is regional airline Mesa, who flies for American and United. Though, American will be watched by the market though, they've significantly more debt than their competitors.

The one bright spot for the airline industry is the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.

[groundbum2]

FTSE (uk) down 8% yesterday. Rang my Dad "shall I jump in" "oh no he says its hard to predict the bottom". Today up 6.9%! I'd have stuck some cash and pulled it back out just to make 6.9%!

I am looking to buy a new house so this could be good news if it cools the UK market a bit. I suspect a lot of people on salaries will be hesitant applying for mortgages until this is over..

Simon

[Sergio]

In my country sick are not accepted to hospitals - they are sent home. i cant make sterile environment - all family will get sick if i get.
and when people wanted borderes closed - the boy, director of health administration. said - no quarantine, it is against human rights. now 40 people sick.
i am not allowed to try to test blood - my family doctor must vector me.
reminds me of my dad, who passed previous year: may 2019, something wrong with blood, make one more test. queue - three months. you can test immediately by own money, but in this case every sickness found will be be on your own account. two more months, two mote months, september 2019 - lets make ultrasound. queue till december.
december - he fall down, taken to hospital. "my friend, where have you been - your have 4th grade cancer."
hospital - go home, of course if you feel bad - come back, we will pump out the liquid from stomach. came back tyo hospital 3 times - no, we will not pump. i say he cant eat or drink, a lot of liquid in stomach. - go home, eat yoghurt. he died 28 days later, because of thirst as i understand.
welcome to capitalism!

[LemonButt]

In my country sick are not accepted to hospitals - they are sent home. i cant make sterile environment - all family will get sick if i get.
and when people wanted borderes closed - the boy, director of health administration. said - no quarantine, it is against human rights. now 40 people sick.
i am not allowed to try to test blood - my family doctor must vector me.
reminds me of my dad, who passed previous year: may 2019, something wrong with blood, make one more test. queue - three months. you can test immediately by own money, but in this case every sickness found will be be on your own account. two more months, two mote months, september 2019 - lets make ultrasound. queue till december.
december - he fall down, taken to hospital. "my friend, where have you been - your have 4th grade cancer."
hospital - go home, of course if you feel bad - come back, we will pump out the liquid from stomach. came back tyo hospital 3 times - no, we will not pump. i say he cant eat or drink, a lot of liquid in stomach. - go home, eat yoghurt. he died 28 days later, because of thirst as i understand.
welcome to capitalism!

What country is this?  This sounds like socialized healthcare and not capitalism.  In the US our healthcare is very expensive, but it's because no one is turned away like this (it is illegal).

I work in business services for the heavy truck/equipment industries and trucking has already been in a deep depression in the US.  The fact the Chinese aren't showing up for work and exporting means by the end of the year the trucking industry is going to get crushed even worse if there are no goods to move.  This, to some degree, is actually good news for the rest of the world as used trucks/equipment end up getting exported to developing countries.

On the other side, I do travel a lot for leisure including a trip to Chile in a few weeks on Delta that appears to be unaffected.  I've got trips booked to Iceland in July and Norway in December that are TBD (American Airlines and Delta).  They are predicting a sharp drop in flight booking followed by a sharp recovery, which means that the airlines will likely be paying pilots etc. to sit on the bench for a period so there isn't a huge shortage--especially if Delta is parking 300 jets.  10 years ago when the housing bubble popped and construction basically stopped, many construction professionals left the industry creating a massive shortage in the following years which still hasn't been resolved, so hopefully the aviation industry has been taking notes.

From a longer term macro view, if Delta and others are accelerating their fleet retirements of MD90, 757, and other not so terrible aircraft that should flood the market with good, cheap aircraft and create opportunities for new airlines to make a splash, especially if the recovery is sharp.

[groundbum2]

The US healthcare system is good for those with insurance, and appalling otherwise. Don't get me wrong, if I had massive trauma I'd rather be in the US than the UK.

We had good friends and Mysty had the bad fortune to need a hysterectomy. Her husband Ray made just enough money burying fibre-optic cables along the Interstates that he didn't qualify for Medicare, but his employer didn't offer insurance. So she got her hysterectomy, hospital got their house, not much more than a shack, to pay the $40K bill. 3 kids on the street. The US is the only country with an entrenched underclass now. I remember a 20 year old getting shot in St Louis, he got a column inch in paper "Local kid shot - died". Pages 1,2,3 and 4 of the same paper were given over to the shooting of a prominent architect. Only difference was the colour of their skin..

Simon

[LemonButt]

The US healthcare system is good for those with insurance, and appalling otherwise. Don't get me wrong, if I had massive trauma I'd rather be in the US than the UK.

Whether you have insurance or not you receive the same healthcare.  People in socialized healthcare countries have a hard time wrapping their head around the difference between healthcare and health insurance because it doesn't exist in their country.  Healthcare providers literally write off 50% of all their revenue for non-payment, which basically means that operation was $40k because someone else got a $40k operation and paid $0 that was written off, so people who do pay are paying for far more than just the healthcare they recieved.  If you pay something--anything--even just $20/month on a payment plan then you remain in good standing and don't get a ding on your credit etc. but too many people just don't pay it at all and expect it to just go away (like many smaller creditors do).  I won't deny our healthcare system is a mess, but a big reason it's a mess is because the government is overly involved--Medicare/Medicaid (the "free" government healthcare for the elderly and poor) is something like a third of all healthcare expenditures/revenue in the country, so we already have a government takeover of healthcare with setting prices etc. and it's a hot mess.  Medicare will set a maximum price they will pay for a tongue depressor or an operation etc. and hospitals automatically bill the maximum price--there is no bargaining power there.  Hopefully the coronavirus exposes the weaknesses to the point that the government actually does something that makes things better instead of worse, but it's doubtful.

I flew home from Las Vegas in first class on Delta about a year ago and got food poisoning from the quiche they served me.  I went home after we landed and after vomiting for hours and reaching severe dehydration to the point I couldn't even keep water down, I went to the ER.  I was given a bag of saline to re-hydrate and some generic meds to settle my stomach and pain relief (non-opiod over the counter stuff basically) and the total bill was $4000 for a 2 hour visit.  After insurance I was still out of pocket $1000 and I sent the bills to Delta stating I paid them out of pocket and I'm asking for $1000 in travel vouchers as compensation--it took 6 months, dealing with a bunch of incompetent third party insurance reps and threatening to sue for the full $4000 plus lost wages, pain and suffering, and treble damages approaching six figures before they finally said they'd give me $1000 in travel vouchers.  This is actually the second time in two years I've gotten sick from Delta--the first time was on a flight to Azores when they served a bad spinach salad.  I didn't end up in the hospital, but I did end up vomiting all over the hotel lobby and destroying an otherwise new pair of sandals.  Delta was on top of it and gave me a $100 Amazon gift card for my troubles within days.  I was expecting the same based on the fact they sent me to the ER, but boy was I wrong.

I learned a lesson the hard way to always take a hard pass on the in-flight quiche.

[Tuckernut]

As both a licensed Registered Nurse and a retired Delta purser/flight attendant I sympathize with your plight.  However, a few things stuck out in your narrative.

First, in my 42 years working with said airline and eating everything on board both international and domestic flights, the only time I got food poisoning was in China and that was not from food served onboard.  That was with cryptosporidium and campylobacter—two vicious little bacterial critters that come from food handlers not hand washing after using the bathroom.  It takes 24-72 hours for food poisoning to develop toxins in your body to a level that you would get sick.  You will run a temp of 101-102F and be very sick.  Anything that was so obviously rank as to make you sick within a few hours would smell terrible and you instinctively would not eat it.  Spinach can be a problem with ecoli but again that takes time to replicate in your system.  All of these require testing of a stool sample to correctly diagnose.

Airlines are used to getting people saying they got food poisoning—unfortunately, the majority are seeking compensation.  In a real pinch they can (and WILL) throw the full power of a huge corporation’s legal department (and a particularly specialized group called Risk Management) at a complainant to get them to walk away.  The gift card was intended to do just that and they will probably give you some mileage, too.

One problem which is finally being addressed is a lack of proper refrigeration on airplanes.  New models are capable of keeping food cold and second meals served on a flight are frozen until cooked for serving.  On 747/DC-10 era aircraft all we had was dry ice which evaporates after a short time.  We can crank airplane ovens up to 500F but usually cook at 350F which is more than enough to kill food-borne bacteria.  Ovens on A330, A350, 777, 787 and other long-haul types are or can be pre-programmed (many experienced flight attendants prefer to cook everything manually). You tell the oven if you are cooking fish, eggs, beef, chicken or pasta and it cooks at varying temps so as not to overcook or undercook.  Ovens are calibrated regularly but crews always write up ovens not heating properly.  Steaks are nearly impossible to cook correctly on an airplane—either raw or overdone.

Usually, once diagnosed, a regimen of Ciprofloxicin (CIPRO) knocks it out in just 4-6 hours.  I always travel with a ‘script in my traveling “first aid kit” as do most pilots and flight attendants along with a “Z-Pack” (Zithromycin) for sinus infections, Sudafed, Tylenol (regular and PM) and a few other things like instant chicken soup for comfort.

Oh great—now I just gave Sami a new idea for a way to ding our airline banks accounts!

Good health to everyone and fly safe.

[LemonButt]

As both a licensed Registered Nurse and a retired Delta purser/flight attendant I sympathize with your plight.  However, a few things stuck out in your narrative.

I have a culinary degree and am ServSafe certified, so I also have a formal education in food safety   The spinach salad incident took ~30 hours to incubate and the quiche incident took only a few hours as the food never left my stomach--I'm pretty sure the quiche was chemical contamination (not bacterial, viral, or toxin mediated) which would induce vomiting (nothing made it past my stomach).  Delta kicked it around with their insurance company (Allianz) who literally took months to figure out who even made the food (some company called "Buddy's Catering").  I realize airlines get complainers all the time looking for a handout which is why I produced ER bills and told them in my original email that I'm more than happy to just take travel vouchers--I paid for a first class ticket and the ER bill was more than the ticket.

Part 2 of the story is that I connected in Atlanta and the last leg of the flight was on a CRJ200 that had no working air conditioning...in Atlanta in July.  The flight attendant couldn't make it through the preflight she was overheating so bad as it was at least 95 degrees on the plane the entire flight home which I'm sure didn't help.  It's a minor miracle I didn't put that aircraft out of service with my bodily fluids, but was also part of the complaint I put in with Delta   My first thought was refrigeration because our flight was delayed and we were flying home from Vegas in July, so everything was sitting on the tarmac in 110 degree heat longer than it probably should have, but Delta is denying they even served me quiche that day (in spite of an email showing I preselected my meal--another lesson learned to always do this) so who knows.  They dragged their feet and attempted to do a "kitchen investigation" six months after the food was even prepared somehow expecting to find something.

I had another run in with Allianz (the insurance company) as I have a Chase Sapphire Reserve card that includes travel insurance through them.  I was in France in December and the train workers are/were on strike and our train tickets booked months in advance were covered by the insurance, but they are literally a black hole and after numerous follow-ups I have zero response from anyone (train tickets are covered but you must submit through their website where it's impossible to submit a claim for a train carrier).  Instead, Chase made it right with a one time credit and I also discussed the medical coverage on the travel insurance--if I stayed in Atlanta and went to the ER they would have covered me 100%, but since I waited until I got home my trip was considered "complete" and thus I wouldn't be covered (another lesson learned).

I was scheduled to fly Delta in a couple weeks for a spring break trip to Chile and flights to South America have been largely unchanged with the outbreak, but they just closed their borders last night so that trip is cancelled now.  Nearly all international flights are cancelled and there is talks of shutting down all domestic flights--many others like LATAM and SAS have already gone to these extremes.  All of this is obviously unprecedented, but I can't really see a scenario where the recovery isn't sharp.  It might not be 100%, but I think airlines should get back to 80% capacity in short order.  The airlines in the US will likely get a bail out of some sorts to remain liquid as they're basically just like the banks now--too big to fail.

[Sergio]

What country is this?  This sounds like socialized healthcare and not capitalism.  In the US our healthcare is very expensive, but it's because no one is turned away like this (it is illegal).

I work in business services for the heavy truck/equipment industries and trucking has already been in a deep depression in the US.  The fact the Chinese aren't showing up for work and exporting means by the end of the year the trucking industry is going to get crushed even worse if there are no goods to move.  This, to some degree, is actually good news for the rest of the world as used trucks/equipment end up getting exported to developing countries.

On the other side, I do travel a lot for leisure including a trip to Chile in a few weeks on Delta that appears to be unaffected.  I've got trips booked to Iceland in July and Norway in December that are TBD (American Airlines and Delta).  They are predicting a sharp drop in flight booking followed by a sharp recovery, which means that the airlines will likely be paying pilots etc. to sit on the bench for a period so there isn't a huge shortage--especially if Delta is parking 300 jets.  10 years ago when the housing bubble popped and construction basically stopped, many construction professionals left the industry creating a massive shortage in the following years which still hasn't been resolved, so hopefully the aviation industry has been taking notes.

From a longer term macro view, if Delta and others are accelerating their fleet retirements of MD90, 757, and other not so terrible aircraft that should flood the market with good, cheap aircraft and create opportunities for new airlines to make a splash, especially if the recovery is sharp.

estonia. that is anti-socialized and anti-human. these are not soviet union who treat us like that, but new "god-blessed correct" local capitalists.

[mp81]

I work for one of the big US 3. Station operations. We were told by our station GM to be prepared for furloughs. Possible 25% company-wide after September 30.

[schro]

I work for one of the big US 3. Station operations. We were told by our station GM to be prepared for furloughs. Possible 25% company-wide after September 30.

Given the current load factors and number of cancelled flights, that's probably going to be a low number unless traffic bounces back fairly quickly....

[LemonButt]

Given the current load factors and number of cancelled flights, that's probably going to be a low number unless traffic bounces back fairly quickly....

The US bailout/stimulus stipulates airlines have to keep employees on until Sept 30--it wouldn't surprise me if additional funds were provided to extend that to prevent a Black Monday situation where half the airline industry ends up unemployed.  On the flip side, Reagan fired everyone during the ATC strike in the 80s and they were able to train new ones much quicker/better than expected, so if everyone is let go it may be easier to restaff airlines when things recover than we think.

On top of this, we have an election in November and if half the airline industry is fired 30 days prior this will be the death knell for Trump, so there is going to be a second bailout to buy votes IMO, whether it is needed or not.

[MRFREAK]

I just started a new fulltime job back in start january at a Travel Agency, the agency were sky rocketing after they 1½-2 years before was put to the knees due to Primera Air's bankruptcy.

Now they finally had serious wind in their sails the last ½-year, selling tons of trips to mainly Spain, Italy and Greece, with Italy being the new destination for 2020.

I managed to be there for 2½ months until this bulls*** corona virus struck. (Sorry for my language) I got fired and had 14 days of notice period, but luckily I was due to my loyalty in those 14 days I got awarded a contract were I will be paid for the hour I'm there and they really want me back as soon as this is over and people start buying trips again, so it's a way to keep me in the firm, although there isn't anything to do at the moment, other than paying back people the money they spent for their trip, currently the danish government has banned ALL unnecessary travelling out of Denmark untill the 10th of may. (was recently changed from 13th of april.) But it doesn't really look good, seeing how things are developing in Italy and Spain so it might be extended again.

The danish government is trying to help business the best they can, they just lent the "Danish Travel Waranty Fund" a whopping 1,5 billion DKK to the fund, which the travel agencies can borrow to pay back their clients for their cancelled travelpackages, but apparently they want the agencies to pay back with "interests" during next year, some agencies have stated that they have found out they are going to pay almost double the amount back.

Many business in Denmark has sent people home with a 3-way deal, the government pays 75% of peoples's salaries (there is a cap, ofc.) and then the business pays 25% and then the workers are NOT allowed to work or anything, they just need to stay home and mind their own business and if either the workers or the business break that pact, the business will have to pay full salary for that certain employee again.

So out of approx. 80 workers at the office, around 85% of my colleagues have been sent home, 10% have been fired and the rest of the 10% is still at work.

Me and atleast 4 others was fired in mid-march and offered the time based contract so if my employer manage to survive this catastrophy, I'm 100% assured to get back on my job again, in the meanwhile I am paid by the hours I'm there and the hours I'm not there I will receive a monthly check from a somekind of insurance (an unemployment benefit) that you can pay a monthly fee to and when you get fired, they will help you with tools and oppertunities to find a new job, pay you a monthly check that is almost the same as your normal paycheck at your recent workplace, offer you courses and such as long as you prove that you are actively searching for a job, these requirements are suspended at the moment, since there are not really any business hiring at the moment.

Long live the danish wellfare 

[mp81]

Well as of now reservations for the summer months are completely flat.

Given the current load factors and number of cancelled flights, that's probably going to be a low number unless traffic bounces back fairly quickly....

[mp81]

Guess we'll see. The current bailout is already largely unpopular and most folks think the airlines suck to begin with. Politicians would have to stomach the ire of voters on a 2nd one.

The US bailout/stimulus stipulates airlines have to keep employees on until Sept 30--it wouldn't surprise me if additional funds were provided to extend that to prevent a Black Monday situation where half the airline industry ends up unemployed.  On the flip side, Reagan fired everyone during the ATC strike in the 80s and they were able to train new ones much quicker/better than expected, so if everyone is let go it may be easier to restaff airlines when things recover than we think.

On top of this, we have an election in November and if half the airline industry is fired 30 days prior this will be the death knell for Trump, so there is going to be a second bailout to buy votes IMO, whether it is needed or not.

[Maarten Otto]

Right as the second wave of this s*** virus is rushing through europe at the moment let me tell about my situation at the moment.

I work for the Dutch Railways for 14 years and on 1st of January this year I joined Eurostar Netherlands, a part of National rail responsible for the Brussels - Amsterdam part of the cross channel train operation between Amsterdam and London. I still do the train now and then and also was re-trained last week for working the other trains on the route so National Rail can displace their staff on services we can not cover.

[LemonButt]

American and United are starting their layoffs in US with government aid expiring: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-airlines/top-u-s-airlines-starting-32000-furloughs-as-bailout-hopes-fade-idUSKBN26L0KV

[gazzz0x2z]

Official forecast in France : 9.5% joblessness at the end of the year, vs 7.1% at the end of the first semester.

https://www.capital.fr/economie-politique/le-chomage-risque-de-decoller-en-france-avertit-linsee-1379820

Airbus's trouble in the Toulouse area and the fall of the tourism industry are amongst the drivers of this dark situation. I'm not sure what's happening at our borders, but I highly doubt it's much better.