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Author Topic: Expensive fuel  (Read 547 times)

Offline spelele49

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Expensive fuel
« on: February 22, 2019, 04:53:53 AM »
Hi

Why is fuel so expensive on this game? It is based on reality, can you imagine if we could have fuel prices costing so much in real life? It ends up blocking new entrants into the game. Let's try to have realistic prices. 

Offline Zobelle

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Re: Expensive fuel
« Reply #1 on: February 22, 2019, 05:05:32 AM »
Hi

Why is fuel so expensive on this game? It is based on reality, can you imagine if we could have fuel prices costing so much in real life? It ends up blocking new entrants into the game. Let's try to have realistic prices.

Current fuel price is similar to $2.65/gal spot price. Not at all unusual despite being high admittedly.

Offline gazzz0x2z

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Re: Expensive fuel
« Reply #2 on: February 22, 2019, 08:25:00 AM »
In some games(previous GW3 or GW2), it mimics reality very accurately. In some games, it's Sami-Random. Current GW3 has known low prices in the beginning, then an ahistorical high for very long, and is now again in an ahistorical low. And we have no historical data for the year 2024 anyways. Which means the system has to make a guess.

It's not like if today's companies had an accurate clue about fuel prices for November 2023. That we advance in the dark is not a scandal. We don't know how much ful is gonna cost, or what opponents are gonna do.

We have to react to unplanned circumstances, whatever they are. I had build all my strategy in current GW3 around building a company without larges, just for filling the french overseas airports - PTP, FDF, RUN, PPT - but the last 2 have been downgraded, and I have no hope of using them anymore with 358s, which means I have to completely rethink my game objectives(and the strategy that comes with). That's a great part of the fun. If everything proceeds as planned, what's the point of playing at all? Just do the planning, and stop there.

Now looking at GW1 as a mentor, I can see Fuel is 865$ish. That's actually low for the end game. Usually, one can expect 1100$ in this era, more or less. If you feel opressed by fuel at 865$, you might rethink some of your strategies. Having a look at your company, I immediatly see 2 problems :
  • You started in a place where the local is a big boy, taking 70% of the market. That's a hard start, for sure
  • You started with Long Haul on lines with opposition

Point 1 is hard to correct, unless you find a more friendly place in this world. That's not obvious, so let's stick to the idea of you staying in Dubai. Point 2, OTOH, is really where you can improve for your next game start. Long Haul start is considered risky(but doable) at the beginning of the game, when fuel is cheap and opposition unexistant. It's therefore nearly undoable so late in a game world.

To make things even harder, you are leasing 4-years old 358s. A damn costly aircraft. Especially when nearly new. If you look at your costs, I'm pretty sure the leasing costs are even higher than the fuel costs. The standard advice is "lease old, buy new, and in the beginning, you can't buy, so lease old crap". The decrease in leasing costs is far bigger than the increase in operational costs(unless you go for soviet steel).

It is also advised to begin with short range routes, because the longer the route, the higher the load factor you need not to lose money. Muscat has a lot of untapped demand, for example, and a A320/B737/C919/MD90 over there, flying 4 times a day, would have made instant profit. Doha is not that good, but I'd have flown 4 times a day anyways, with an expected load factor around 60%, enough to make some money. Further, you've got quite a few interesting destinations, like Tehran where you can certainly slip one or two flights, Karachi for one flight, Mashhad, and even Riyan(if you fly smaller single-aisle aircraft, which would be advised in your position, something like the 319 would really shine there, they are really kickass up to 2000/2200NM, which opens you a non-negligible part of the European market, plus some cool destinations in Asia & Africa).

Said otherwise, the high cost of petrol are not what is preventing you from growing, it's an unadapted starting strategy, that begins by the wrong market to begin with, and that goes on with wrong contracts for the wrong planes. 358s are kickass.. .When owned. When leased, they are usually not profitable. LH can be very profitable at the end, but requires an amount of investment you cannot afford as a new company. OTOH, leasing a handful of 20 years olf 319s is dirt cheap, and can help you start with a profit - which can help you build a long haul network later.

Offline spelele49

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Re: Expensive fuel
« Reply #3 on: February 25, 2019, 04:21:24 AM »
Thank you for the advice

 

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