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Author Topic: Game Average Fuel Price  (Read 278 times)

Online tungstennedge

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Game Average Fuel Price
« on: December 05, 2018, 05:11:12 AM »
Right now, fuel price is close to the highest I've ever seen as a newbie, its kinda cool since tons or airline are dropping like flies. However, right now I'm also sitting on a perfectly placed hedge and am paying 643$/ton, and in two months when this ends Ill see my margin but my more than half. Now I'm wondering what price does fuel usually average around this era in the game, like just in general on a many year scale. I want to know if I should be planning my company around consistent near 1000 fuel price, or if 1000 is unusually high for this time of the game, and I shouldn't worry about fuel climbing too much further. I've been banking cash now for a while too prepare in case fuel goes up more after my hedge ends, not sure how scared I should be.

Offline gazzz0x2z

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Re: Game Average Fuel Price
« Reply #1 on: December 05, 2018, 08:57:48 AM »
I've seen pikes at 1500$, and some game had prices stabilize around 1150$. Some around 900$.

It might go down significantly one year or another, but don't expect the current trend to be an aberration. It's more the norm. The aberration was all those years at 300$. Which trapped countless players who felt they had the place to grow. And grew beyond reason, digging their own grave.

Offline Tha_Ape

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Re: Game Average Fuel Price
« Reply #2 on: December 05, 2018, 10:17:49 AM »
GW#2 goes between 600 and 1100 for 15 years now. The year is 2025.

Offline groundbum2

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Re: Game Average Fuel Price
« Reply #3 on: December 05, 2018, 12:30:33 PM »
my understanding is that near the end of these long worlds the major players are at 2% profit margins..

Simon

Offline deovrat

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Re: Game Average Fuel Price
« Reply #4 on: December 05, 2018, 12:46:30 PM »
my understanding is that near the end of these long worlds the major players are at 2% profit margins..

Simon

Define major;)

Offline Mort

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Re: Game Average Fuel Price
« Reply #5 on: December 05, 2018, 01:08:05 PM »
Define major;)

Small regional airlines.

Offline gazzz0x2z

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Re: Game Average Fuel Price
« Reply #6 on: December 05, 2018, 03:12:17 PM »
my understanding is that near the end of these long worlds the major players are at 2% profit margins..

Simon

I'm 11th in scoring in GW2, my profit margin is beyond 26%, I'm flying 918 airframes, and my fuel breakeven is 2400$. And with the replacement of CRJs by MRJs(which comes with a full schedule overhaul, thanks to which 7 MRJs replace 8 CRJs, sometimes even 9) and A321-200s by neos, I expect those numbers to get even better.

Addaxian in AMS has 1774 airplanes, and more than 9% margin. Thousand Wings flies 1563 birds and has 23% margin. Fuel is currently at 1009$.

From what I see, your understanding does not cover all cases. It's perfectly possible to be a major player, and to have 20+% margins in the end game. Not 2%.

Offline Tha_Ape

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Re: Game Average Fuel Price
« Reply #7 on: December 05, 2018, 04:16:44 PM »
In my case I'm around 1200 frames. My case is a tad special as I'm in Russia, where distances are really huge (regional is between 500 and 1000, MH between 1000 and 2300). I'm quite good at scheduling, with every single plane in 7-day schedule meaning a very high use per day. However longer flights mean less pax per day per plane, so I'm very dependent on fuel prices. At $1200, I'm barely making money, around that 2% you mention. But when the fuel goes down to $600-700, I'm jumping directly around 23%.

Online Zobelle

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Re: Game Average Fuel Price
« Reply #8 on: December 06, 2018, 06:19:09 AM »
In my case I'm around 1200 frames. My case is a tad special as I'm in Russia, where distances are really huge (regional is between 500 and 1000, MH between 1000 and 2300). I'm quite good at scheduling, with every single plane in 7-day schedule meaning a very high use per day. However longer flights mean less pax per day per plane, so I'm very dependent on fuel prices. At $1200, I'm barely making money, around that 2% you mention. But when the fuel goes down to $600-700, I'm jumping directly around 23%.

GW1 currently has me in the low 20's margin wise with $1,000/ton fuel.

 The benefits of a single fleet type. A320 family is pretty awesome but a bit more range limited than 737 NG family.

Online tungstennedge

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Re: Game Average Fuel Price
« Reply #9 on: December 07, 2018, 02:15:27 AM »
Well thanks for all the input guys, now I'll know how to I should plan my airline better.

Anyways my hedge ended and 1000 fuel price and I'm down to 7% margin, however, got lots of room to improve considering I lease 90% of my ac and have 31% of my expenses as fuel xD.

Offline Tha_Ape

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Re: Game Average Fuel Price
« Reply #10 on: December 07, 2018, 06:33:57 AM »
Yes, as Brexitair (or whatever the name of the company is, from xBuzz, I believe) said in another post, you'd better concentrate on transforming your airline in a solid machine through ownership, rather than to keep expanding.

Online tungstennedge

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Re: Game Average Fuel Price
« Reply #11 on: December 08, 2018, 05:46:09 AM »
Yep, that was a really solid suggestion from xBuzz, its probably the smartest advice I could take, however buying out fleet is a long and arduous task, I mean I've been top ten for net revenue for a long time and still I've only made enough to buy a tiny fraction on my VL fleet. For me, now that I know the company is still profitable at 1050 fuel, I calculated I break even at 1300-1400, and I cant imagine the game would stay at those prices for long. So knowing that, I just hope to keep growing my net revenue even if it is at a crappy margin until I filled most the demand I can find out of Europe up, then focus on becoming efficient via fleet ownership.

Anyways, as long as I can keep in the same ballpark as Brexit on net revenue I'm happy.

Offline Tha_Ape

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Re: Game Average Fuel Price
« Reply #12 on: December 08, 2018, 09:53:02 AM »
Yep, that was a really solid suggestion from xBuzz, its probably the smartest advice I could take, however buying out fleet is a long and arduous task, I mean I've been top ten for net revenue for a long time and still I've only made enough to buy a tiny fraction on my VL fleet. For me, now that I know the company is still profitable at 1050 fuel, I calculated I break even at 1300-1400, and I cant imagine the game would stay at those prices for long. So knowing that, I just hope to keep growing my net revenue even if it is at a crappy margin until I filled most the demand I can find out of Europe up, then focus on becoming efficient via fleet ownership.

Anyways, as long as I can keep in the same ballpark as Brexit on net revenue I'm happy.

Error - Error - Error :)
Don't focus on staying at someone's level, focus on yourself, on your own profitability.

A few decades ago, I had a competitor in dire straits, but she accepted that she was in trouble and for this reason decided that it was better to shrink and focus on what what profitable at this time (rather that trying to stay at my level by any means), so she could grow again later, when things would improve. And she was absolutely right: should she decide to maintain herself, she would have collapsed quite fast.

Obviously you're not in the same situation, from what I read your airline is still doing quite well, but the principle stays the same.

Positive point: the more you own planes, the more you'll make money (again): progressively, you'll make more money, and at some point you'll be able to boom like crazy. A really happy moment in one's airline :)

Online Zobelle

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Re: Game Average Fuel Price
« Reply #13 on: December 08, 2018, 05:10:37 PM »
Yes, as Brexitair (or whatever the name of the company is, from xBuzz, I believe) said in another post, you'd better concentrate on transforming your airline in a solid machine through ownership, rather than to keep expanding.

Currently failing at that in GW4 with most of my 762ís being leased, but the cost of the leases is cheaper than what I was forking out on fuel with the IL62ís using 12t/hr and the 762 using about 5t/hr, not to mention lower staffing cost. (2 pilots vs 5)

The goal though is to replace those leased 762ís with owned 762/3ER.

 

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