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Author Topic: A question for those experiences players  (Read 468 times)

Offline tungstennedge

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A question for those experiences players
« on: November 20, 2018, 11:01:49 AM »
My airline this gameworld is my second company, and it's becoming quite large which I'm happy about. Now In terms of demand, I'm IN LHR which has obviously huge demand, there is still tons of open demand right now although filling it is limited now my rate of aircraft intake, as markets filled by the used market planes are basically full and starting to accumulate huge oversupply margins.

EG LAX:https://www.airwaysim.com/game/Routes/Planning/X/EGLL/KLAX/

Almost all US cities to LHR have these levels of oversupply.

Now, it's not a big problem for me, but I'm wondering what this gameworlds competition level is like compared to normal, or is this just an average world? I'm just curiouswhether this world is receiving more less or average levels of competition.

My second question if what can expect demand numbers to grow too, and by when? For example I saw one screenshot, Im not sure from when but LHR to JFK had 10 000 demand. Im wondering when I can expect those numbers to come, and if these ratios of oversupply will continue even as demand grows to those extreme levels. EG Right now LHR TO KEWR has 7700 supply and 4000 demand, nearly double. Most cities sit around 170% oversupply, while certain cities like FAJS are starting to have less than 130% oversupply since demand has grown so much without new competitors. Im wondering if I should prepare for these oversupply ratios to worsen or get better over time and if it's a good idea to keep adding flights maintaining these oversupply ratios. (They are currently still all very profitable at 170%, where routes like KEWR at 190% are starting to get close to break even)

Offline groundbum2

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Re: A question for those experiences players
« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2018, 11:26:31 AM »
as the game matures you should expect to be able to run your airline easily when most routes are 200% supplied, and not quite so easily at 300% supply. Have spare planes around, so when other players go bankrupt you can jump onto their route. So say a big KEWR disappears, get ready to fill EGLL-KEWR quickly before the others do.

Wait until fuel prices go up then you'll see a bloodbath. And yes the traffic figures reflect the real world approximately, so expect China to grow internationally and domestically and yes EGLL/KJFK will go to 10K or more.

But plan for 300% supply on the juicy routes...

S

Offline gazzz0x2z

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Re: A question for those experiences players
« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2018, 11:27:05 AM »
Question 1 : expect excessive competition. Until fuel prices skyrocket. I did just add 3 more flights there, for a total of 4 : https://www.airwaysim.com/game/Routes/Planning/TFFF/LFPG/?go=1 - 800 demand, 4 daily 767s, 2 daily 777s, 2 Daily A300s, that's completely excessive. I do not expect all 3 companies flying there to survive punitive fuel prices when they'll arrive(if they arrive, because fuel prices aer really strange that GW3). And I highly expect to be amongst survivors, hence me bashing the route. Or, if fuel stays cheaper than water, well, I'm still not losing money there.

once again, expect excessive competition. This is a competitive game, and most players tend to plan their flights as if local competition did not exist. Because they expect the other guy to crash. Of course, some players end up on the wrong side, and their companies end up collapsing. It may be quick. That guy in HAM did survive maybe one year under my pressure before collapsing(he must have done something wrong, 90% of his routes were 90% covered monopolies , and his margin was negligible, that's why I felt I could land there safely - he would not have survvied anyways, I just hastened his demise). It may be slow, too, in GW2, we've seen 40/50 years battles before the last opponent was defeated. It may even not happen. LHR usually keeps 2-3 big boys, at the end of the game. 5 right now is too many, possible only because fuel is cheap and fleet transitions have not began yet, but the best are gonna survive.

Question 2 : slow growth, around 1-3% per year. Depends on Sami's mood.

Offline Tha_Ape

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Re: A question for those experiences players
« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2018, 11:51:43 AM »
Can't tell you precisely about the oversupply in GW#3 as I cannot look into it, however I can bring up a few points:

 - GW#3 is still quite "young" and there are a lot of airlines that should BK in the future, giving (a little) more air to breathe to the remaining ones. Especially when the fuel will hit 1100-1200$, if not more.

 - juicy routes like LAX, JFK etc will be where you make high numbers of pax, and you need to fly these in order to prevent your competitors (both direct and indirect) to take all the room. However you'll proportionally make much more money on thinner routes to destinations that are in the 30th page of the airports' list, where there is only 400 demand, you supply 300, be all alone and milk your passengers quite a bit. So don't be afraid to look at tiny islands in the Caribbean, or 2nd/3rd rate airports in the Middle East or Far East, South America, etc.

 - ULH: I fly some ULH (8000+ nm) because I want to, sure, but also because I can make it profitable. Not by much, but still. Because I'm all alone on those routes, and undersupplying. Not profitable in times of high fuel but I'm the only one to get the revenue earned when fuel isn't that expensive, and that's one more buck my competitor won't have during dire times. Be careful there, though.

 - your own oversupply: as said in another post (but still to you, iirc) better be the 1st to add that extra flight, because you'll be the one getting the progressive increase in demand, while your competitor (well, usually, because some are really aggressive and still profitable) will be reluctant to add one as the oversupply will be too much for him. There will be some escalation on some routes, but the average should be ok.
« Last Edit: November 20, 2018, 11:56:22 AM by Tha_Ape »

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: A question for those experiences players
« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2018, 07:23:45 PM »
Competition is typical.  And will get more intense.  Most players are limited by money and rate they can acquire aircraft from new / used.  So supply will grow, and they there will be bankruptcies.

As far as demand, there is still 33 years left in this game, there will be growth.  If the growth at 2%, the demand will go up 92%. in 33 years.

Offline tungstennedge

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Re: A question for those experiences players
« Reply #5 on: November 20, 2018, 09:43:22 PM »
as the game matures you should expect to be able to run your airline easily when most routes are 200% supplied, and not quite so easily at 300% supply. Have spare planes around, so when other players go bankrupt you can jump onto their route. So say a big KEWR disappears, get ready to fill EGLL-KEWR quickly before the others do.

Wait until fuel prices go up then you'll see a bloodbath. And yes the traffic figures reflect the real world approximately, so expect China to grow internationally and domestically and yes EGLL/KJFK will go to 10K or more.

But plan for 300% supply on the juicy routes...

S

I cant wait for 1100 fuel price then, I want to see companies dropping (Hopefully not me)

@JumboShrimp I hope we got 3% then cause then we are gonna get +165% xD

Also I have been looking deep into route pages for routes, the Caribbean has proven to be a gold mine however, I don't seem to beable to profit as much from these as bigger routes for whatever reason. For example, I have 80% lf, and 360K/route pair on LAX,  despite having 190% oversupply 11800/6300 appox. A route where I am the only operator makes the same amount at the moment. Am I not charging enough for the route I am only operator or something, or is LAX just performing really well due to large premium demand? Not too sure, I even fly multiple times in an single hour to LAX and both route pairs still make 300k+ each per routes pair.

Offline groundbum2

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Re: A question for those experiences players
« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2018, 04:47:49 PM »
there are a few jammy routes from Heathrow (I played it last GW)
FAJS
WASP
RJTT
KLAX
VHHK
KJFK until it gets silly oversupplied

but yes the premium passengers are making the money on those routes. The Caribbean routes will have much less supply, and very little FC pax. So they'll be good until everybody else finds them. I keep an eye on my competitors via the airport timetable page to see what they're doing. Short haul/long haul, east/west, domestic/international, what planes are they buying etc. Also keep an eye on competitors CI and profit% and company value. It'll tell you who's in trouble and who will BK and you can hop on their routes when they go and leave a mighty hole.

Eat or be eaten in this game!

Simon

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: A question for those experiences players
« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2018, 05:47:22 PM »
@JumboShrimp I hope we got 3% then cause then we are gonna get +165% xD

In the past, LHR used to be slot constrained.  Not sure about this GW.  But in that situation, you don't want demand to be sky high.  High demand and low slots make it harder to BK anyone.

Offline tungstennedge

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Re: A question for those experiences players
« Reply #8 on: November 25, 2018, 12:35:02 PM »
there are a few jammy routes from Heathrow (I played it last GW)
FAJS
WASP
RJTT
KLAX
VHHK
KJFK until it gets silly oversupplied

but yes the premium passengers are making the money on those routes. The Caribbean routes will have much less supply, and very little FC pax. So they'll be good until everybody else finds them. I keep an eye on my competitors via the airport timetable page to see what they're doing. Short haul/long haul, east/west, domestic/international, what planes are they buying etc. Also keep an eye on competitors CI and profit% and company value. It'll tell you who's in trouble and who will BK and you can hop on their routes when they go and leave a mighty hole.

Eat or be eaten in this game!

Simon

Where is WASP, I can't find it, same with VHHK

I have a feeling you mean WSSS and VHHH tho, in your list you have me I have 80 flights or more a week to most xD.

 

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