AirwaySim
Online Airline Management Simulation
Login
Username
Password
 
or login using:
 
My Account
Username:
E-mail:
Edit account
» Achievements
» Logout
Game Credits
Credit balance: 0 Cr
Buy credits
» Credit history
» Credits FAQ

Author Topic: CBD and Philadelphia, Manchester UK  (Read 271 times)

Offline groundbum2

  • Members
  • Posts: 373
CBD and Philadelphia, Manchester UK
« on: September 12, 2018, 05:40:17 PM »
I'm in GW4 and it's 1972. Does anybody know if cargo at Philadelphia is part of the NYC area demand, or is it far enough to be it's own specific cargo?

Ditto Manchester UK, does it's cargo CBD demand include London or is it far enough away? I'm guessing Birmingham includes some of London as it's fairly close..

Cheers, Simon

Offline Tha_Ape

  • Members
  • Posts: 4117
Re: CBD and Philadelphia, Manchester UK
« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2018, 06:10:22 PM »
Philly & NY overlap quite a bit. At least that's what all the estimates I had say.

BIR probably has a little from MAN and a little from London as well, but I don't think MAN and London overlap (well, yes, but just a tiny bit around BIR).

Offline APTamas

  • Members
  • Posts: 95
Re: CBD and Philadelphia, Manchester UK
« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2018, 06:38:15 PM »
As you can read in the manual, "The catchment area of an airport can be anything between 50 and 200 kilometers (31 to 124 miles). The larger the airport grows, the higher the catchment area becomes."
So I think that MAN is too far from London to get demand from it.

https://www.airwaysim.com/game/Manual/Routes/Demand/#Catchment

Offline yearofthecactus

  • Members
  • Posts: 566
Re: CBD and Philadelphia, Manchester UK
« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2018, 12:10:47 PM »
It should be noted that if airport a has a 200km catchment, and airport b has a catchment of 200km, they can be 400km apart and share (an admittedly) tiny amount of catchment.

PHL is a difficult case because it has some catchment from New York airports, and some from Washington airports. But traffic from that area will most stay local to those areas, and with no gw ever having no strong airlines in Washington or New York, one can't simply base in PHL and expect to draw all the demand there. But it has a lot of local demand, which if served won't be realistic for New York or Washington so it works both ways.

London and Manchester is interesting, because half way is the midlands, and they have a lot of demand. If there is a big BHX cargo supplier, then I'd argue that London and Manchester airlines aren't really competing too much. If there is no big BHX cargo operator, then London and Manchester airlines will be affecting each other, because they'll be fighting over the periphery demand on the edge of their circles - even though they are 250km/150m away.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2018, 12:15:45 PM by yearofthecactus »

Offline Tha_Ape

  • Members
  • Posts: 4117
Re: CBD and Philadelphia, Manchester UK
« Reply #4 on: September 13, 2018, 04:59:58 PM »
Currently, the max catchment radius is still limited to 170km (because Infra is limited to 6 and cannot rise to 10 yet).

Offline JumboShrimp

  • Members
  • Posts: 7063

The person who likes this post:
Re: CBD and Philadelphia, Manchester UK
« Reply #5 on: September 13, 2018, 08:16:07 PM »
Currently, the max catchment radius is still limited to 170km (because Infra is limited to 6 and cannot rise to 10 yet).

I think that infrastructure level of 6 that showed up at 1-2 airports was a bug.  So we are limited to 5/10, and the max radius is probably just below 150 km.

Offline groundbum2

  • Members
  • Posts: 373
Re: CBD and Philadelphia, Manchester UK
« Reply #6 on: September 13, 2018, 09:48:57 PM »
thanks guy for all the great info to date..

Simon

Offline schro

  • Members
  • Posts: 4032
Re: CBD and Philadelphia, Manchester UK
« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2018, 05:07:26 PM »
I'm shutting down cargo in PHL in GW3. I have ~400k potential demand to a few places in Japan which after flying for a game decade or so has attracted a whopping 6-8k of actual demand.

Offline JumboShrimp

  • Members
  • Posts: 7063
Re: CBD and Philadelphia, Manchester UK
« Reply #8 on: September 17, 2018, 01:21:11 AM »
Part of the problem for US based airlines with cargo operations was lack of growth.  The demand should have at least tripled, but it actually went down or was stagnant in the US between 1998 and 2030s.

(GW3)

Offline schro

  • Members
  • Posts: 4032
Re: CBD and Philadelphia, Manchester UK
« Reply #9 on: September 17, 2018, 02:22:31 AM »
Part of the problem for US based airlines with cargo operations was lack of growth.  The demand should have at least tripled, but it actually went down or was stagnant in the US between 1998 and 2030s.

(GW3)

Yet, what's happened is that actual demand dropped anywhere from 70% to 95% over the course of this particular game world for my specific bases (smaller airports in larger metro areas). It's absolutely unprecedented in my near 10 years of playing that I've had to wholesale gut 25% of my flying of a specific fleet type that once had sufficient demand but no longer does (especially relevant for a US based airline).

Offline JumboShrimp

  • Members
  • Posts: 7063

The person who likes this post:
Re: CBD and Philadelphia, Manchester UK
« Reply #10 on: September 17, 2018, 06:10:40 AM »
Yet, what's happened is that actual demand dropped anywhere from 70% to 95% over the course of this particular game world for my specific bases (smaller airports in larger metro areas). It's absolutely unprecedented in my near 10 years of playing that I've had to wholesale gut 25% of my flying of a specific fleet type that once had sufficient demand but no longer does (especially relevant for a US based airline).

Some of this is just a function of CBD.  If you are the first to fly certain route, say from LGA, it will be so good, and it will attract so much demand, that it prompts you to add 2nd, 3rd flight.  Then someone adds a flight from JFK, EWR, and also from all 3 airports to another airport near your original destination.

So now the demand gets divided by 6, and from your original 3 full planes, you have only one half empty.

There are no tools for you to make the demand go up (to be shifted to your airport) in additio to just flying the route.  And 10 other players have the same tool (flying the route) to make your demand go down.

Demand growth tends to cure a lot of ills.  but it did not happen.  The demand in the US between 1998 and 2033 is around slightly down or unchanged.

In real world, the US market, some figures I looked up (during the span of GW3:

1998: 25 million tonnes
2017: 61 million tonnes (+ 144%, half way through GW3).

Current forecast for next 5 years:
"IATA has forecast industry-wide freight ton kilometers to grow by 4.9 percent on average over each of the next five years."

https://www.joc.com/air-cargo/international-air-freight/air-freight-demand-growth-starting-look-sustainable_20180319.html

So between 1998 and 2036, the cargo demand in the US should have at minimum gone up 300+%

AWS seems to have decent growth in Asia, such as SIN, HKG, China, Taiwan.  The problem with China is that the starting base is so extremely low that the subsequent demand growth has very limited effect.  Japan, OTH, has very slow growth in AWS.

I think these cargo growth numbers and projections in AWS need serious readjustment.

 

WARNING! This website is not compatible with the old version of Internet Explorer you are using.

If you are using the latest version please turn OFF the compatibility mode.