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Author Topic: [-] Review and rebalance cargo demand figures for Brazil  (Read 225 times)

Offline wilian.souza2

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[-] Review and rebalance cargo demand figures for Brazil
« on: August 31, 2018, 05:07:58 PM »
I had a feeling that cargo demand to/from Brazil in GW2 was being underestimated with respect to passenger demand, so I made a little research to confirm my suspects.

I've found this document from the Brazilian airport authority, INFRAERO (http://www4.infraero.gov.br/media/551857/final.pdf) which has the ranking for passenger movement (pages 11-12) and cargo movement (pages 13-14) in 65 of the Brazilian airports in 2009. I compared the figures of the report with AWS figures of GW2 (which is in 2010, so past year's stats are of 2009) and have found that:

-> In real life, the total pax movement in the researched airports was of 98.660 M in 2009 (1.897 M pax/week); In AWS, the 4 Brazilian airlines transported 190.715 M passengers (3.668 M pax/week) in the same year. Considering that 85% of the pax transported in the country were transported by Brazilian airlines, it gives an estimate of 224.371 M pax transported in 2009 in AWS (4.315 pax/week), which gives us a AWS/RL ratio of 2,274;

-> Likewise, the total cargo movement in the researched airports was of 1.417.387 tons in 2009 (27.257 tons/week); In AWS, the 4 Brazilian airlines transported 1.371.302 tons (26.301 tons/week) in the same year. Considering that 90% of the cargo transported in the country were transported by Brazilian airlines (I give a higher estimate on this because domestic demand is bigger in total), it gives an estimate of 1.523.669 tons of cargo transported in 2009 in AWS (29.301 tons/week), which gives us a AWS/RL ratio of only 1,138.

So, comparing AWS/RL ratios for cargo and pax in Brazil, we can clearly see that cargo demand is underestimated with respect to pax movement, which confirms my suspects.

Besides, see the percentage of total cargo travelled in from the 3 top airports, according to INFRAERO's report (page 13):

1) SBGR - 31,12%
2) SBKP(!) - 18,61%
3) SBEG(!!) - 11,31%

These 3 airports are responsible for more than 60% of total cargo travelled inn Brazil!

So please review cargo figures for Brazil because it's not so poor of a country!
« Last Edit: August 31, 2018, 07:01:51 PM by Sami »

Online Sami

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Re: Review and rebalance cargo demand figures for Brazil
« Reply #1 on: August 31, 2018, 05:27:25 PM »
Pax and cargo cannot be compared, they are totally different systems, and different settings.

And good to see the new city based demand is quite close to real life figures (the totals you quoted), though I believe quite a bit of the cargo in AWS still remains untransported.

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: Review and rebalance cargo demand figures for Brazil
« Reply #2 on: August 31, 2018, 06:31:49 PM »
And good to see the new city based demand is quite close to real life figures (the totals you quoted), though I believe quite a bit of the cargo in AWS still remains untransported.

Which would make an interesting report / chart.

Maybe the market share chart could be changed to include not only market share of transported pax and cargo, but ulso include pax and cargo that have not been transported as one of the slices.

Online dmoose42

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Re: Review and rebalance cargo demand figures for Brazil
« Reply #3 on: August 31, 2018, 06:47:04 PM »
I agree 100% - seeing what percent of total demand that is not being transported would be super interesting.

Offline wilian.souza2

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Re: Review and rebalance cargo demand figures for Brazil
« Reply #4 on: August 31, 2018, 07:10:32 PM »
And good to see the new city based demand is quite close to real life figures (the totals you quoted), though I believe quite a bit of the cargo in AWS still remains untransported.

Maybe that's just coincidence... We'd need to research more countries to confirm if AWS' figues in CBD are really close to RL's figures. I thought overall demand in AWS were increased to allow more competition, and if this was the case, cargo and pax would've been increased disproportionately in BR.

As for the untransported cargo - I believe this is not the case for Brazil in GW2, as the 4 airlines combined have a really broad coverage in both domestic/international routes and all 4 airlines have really low cargo LFs. And with the current proportion of cargo/pax operations, we are in a real disadvantage, as we depend too much on pax revenue.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2018, 07:14:04 PM by wilian.souza2 »

 

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