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Author Topic: Breakup of USSR - continuity  (Read 665 times)

Offline Tha_Ape

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Breakup of USSR - continuity
« on: April 24, 2018, 11:59:45 AM »
Lithuania became independent recently, in GW#2, and I notice some strange discrepancies:

                                   USSR     Independent Lithuania
Relative salary level        80%                 105%
GDP per capita              3201 $              6946 $

I cannot explain myself such different figures as for 1990:
1) it sure wasn't the poorest and most under-developed part of Soviet Union, but we're still talking of the times immediately following the breakup. The GDP per capita makes it look like there has been a crazy economic boom (more than x2).
2) There has indeed been an economic boom in the Baltic States, but in the early 2000s: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Tiger
(ok, ok, wikipedia, but just to give an idea)
3) GDP per capita in USSR in 1990 was at 9211 $ (from GNP): https://www.theodora.com/wfb/1990/rankings/gdp_per_capita_1.html
(based on the CIA factbook)
https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp-per-capita
4) on the other hand, when using google to look for Russia's 1990 GDP per capita, the result is 3485 $, coherent with your values (even if Russia wasn't independent in 1991). And in the same graph Lithuania has a GDP per capita of only 2168 $ in 1995 (no values before that on google)
https://www.google.fr/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_pcap_cd&hl=fr&dl=fr#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=ny_gdp_pcap_cd&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=country&idim=country:RUS:LTU&ifdim=country&tstart=-305776800000&tend=1461448800000&hl=fr&dl=fr&ind=false
And coherent with those: https://tradingeconomics.com/lithuania/gdp-per-capita

At the very least, I would expect figures to be close to each others right after the independences, and then slowly become different.

Could we please have some explanations about what looks like real strangenesses?

Thanks.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2018, 12:04:49 PM by Tha_Ape »

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: Breakup of USSR - continuity
« Reply #1 on: April 24, 2018, 12:40:58 PM »
AWS is not making up this data.  The GDP data is imported from a source.  The source being used may have some flaws with the data (or most likely with applying proper exchange rate), but it is outside of the scope of AWS to keep its own independent GDP statistics for 100 of countries, for nearly a century.

If you can find a better source that has this data (for 100s of countries, covering nearly a century) I am sure Sami might be willing to look at it...  But if you think you have better data for 1 single country (tiny one at that), then the answer will likely be no.

One thing in your post that I also noticed:  Salary level (%) and GDP per person seem to use different sources.  I think they should both use the same source, and the salary level should follow GDP per person.

Offline Tha_Ape

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Re: Breakup of USSR - continuity
« Reply #2 on: April 24, 2018, 01:16:14 PM »
I reckon my post was a bit messy. 1st I noticed a thing, then another one, then another one, etc., and I didn't clean the mess after that. My mistake.

1) I completely understand your point about everything for one single source, and I agree, even if with difficulty (I'm a little fussy :-[).

2) Yes, Lithuania is a rather small country. But USSR/Russia isn't. And while the game gives 3201$ for 1990 (similar to what google says - 3485$), other sources give 9211$ (CIA Factbook) or around the same value (https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp-per-capita). Almost three times the game's value. Quite a difference, isn't it?

3) Beyond possible inaccuracies, rather about the continuity in the game (when country become independent): maybe there could be some smoothening calculation, linking up pre- and post-independence to avoid huge bumps (both up or down)?

Offline Tha_Ape

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Re: Breakup of USSR - continuity
« Reply #3 on: April 24, 2018, 01:22:08 PM »
Plus, don't know if there is a link, but Vilnius seems to have the highest % of C demand - worldwide :laugh:
https://www.airwaysim.com/game/Routes/Planning/X/EYVI/LFPG/
https://www.airwaysim.com/game/Routes/Planning/X/EYVI/EGLL/

Offline Zobelle

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Re: Breakup of USSR - continuity
« Reply #4 on: April 24, 2018, 01:54:47 PM »
Plus, don't know if there is a link, but Vilnius seems to have the highest % of C demand - worldwide :laugh:
https://www.airwaysim.com/game/Routes/Planning/X/EYVI/LFPG/
https://www.airwaysim.com/game/Routes/Planning/X/EYVI/EGLL/
The people had enough of austerity?

Offline MikeS

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Re: Breakup of USSR - continuity
« Reply #5 on: April 24, 2018, 03:05:41 PM »
Plus, don't know if there is a link, but Vilnius seems to have the highest % of C demand - worldwide :laugh:
https://www.airwaysim.com/game/Routes/Planning/X/EYVI/LFPG/
https://www.airwaysim.com/game/Routes/Planning/X/EYVI/EGLL/
Good luck finding a 10 seater configured 4c/6y for services to London and Paris  ;D     ... time for business jets in AWS ...

Online Sami

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Re: Breakup of USSR - continuity
« Reply #6 on: April 24, 2018, 03:30:09 PM »
The 3000ish per capita GDP displayed for whole of Soviet union looks to be wrong, when I compare for master values for Russia (should be 9000ish for 1990, which after country enters into a deep deep recession for about 10 years). Not sure if this comes to that page from some poorer region, have to investigate.

But in any case: when a country breakup happens the background index values change and the change is not gradual for the salary levels. However this is not a real problem as your salaries etc will not double overnight anyway. Not sure if there is an easy way to improve this as salary level is one fixed value for each country.

(And generally speaking the geopolitical changes and airport changes are a real headache.... Very much easier just to model the present date only.)
« Last Edit: April 24, 2018, 03:36:23 PM by Sami »

Offline Tha_Ape

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Re: Breakup of USSR - continuity
« Reply #7 on: April 24, 2018, 04:01:39 PM »
Thanks for that answer. I'm slowly getting a better image of the background of the game, but I'm also struggling with my own fussiness, so please excuse me for any attempt to underline the gap there sometimes is between the game and reality.

In the course of the last months, I made some research about Soviet Union / Russia, and found out quite a number of strangenesses for which I regularly opened new threads (I think quite a few ;D). Some of them seem to be indeed problems (like this one, or the lack of cargo handling from SVO). I'm just pointing out facts, not necessarily asking for them to be immediately or entirely fixed. You obviously have to juggle with the game mechanics and try not to make it overly complicated, I plainly understand.

But I still think that pointing them out is important, as the game itself could benefit from it (for those which can be fixed / improved). And not necessarily Soviet Union only.

About geopolitics: that's the reason I'm currently playing in SU, because it's not a quiet place, and I think bumps and changes of fate make the game more interesting. As you point out, it's probably quite hard to implement in the game (the thread about CBD disregarding closed USSR...), but as I think a real geopolitic underlay would make the game deeper and more interesting, well, I keep asking questions and proposing potential solutions ::)

Anyway, I already gave you a huge load of work on USSR/Russia, you're probably eager that this GW ends and that I change country (or quit the game, no work at all, at least from me :laugh:).
« Last Edit: April 24, 2018, 04:10:41 PM by Tha_Ape »

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: Breakup of USSR - continuity
« Reply #8 on: April 24, 2018, 08:48:42 PM »
I think most of the issues related to unusual GDP figures are related (in my opinion) to exchange rates.  There is no universally "correct" way to determine how to convert GDP from local currency to a common currency (US $).  There may be inconsistencies, or even if there is a consistent method, the results may still end up misleading for some countries.

Offline Tha_Ape

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Re: Breakup of USSR - continuity
« Reply #9 on: April 24, 2018, 09:00:48 PM »
3 to 1 is pretty inconsistent indeed :laugh: Even though I don't know which one is the right one, or even if one of them is right.

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: Breakup of USSR - continuity
« Reply #10 on: April 24, 2018, 10:48:29 PM »
3 to 1 is pretty inconsistent indeed :laugh: Even though I don't know which one is the right one, or even if one of them is right.

Russian Ruble was not convertible, and then at some point when it became convertible, the value of it collapsed.  So was is hard to have something concrete as a measure.

For comparison, I don't know how it is tracking in GW2, but I would not expect huge swings for example in Czech Republic or Slovakia.  There was an unofficial exchange rate that held steady when the currencies became convertible.  So it is easier for economists to apply some trade weighted modifier against something that is stable, and end up with a reasonable measure of GDP per capita.

Online Sami

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Re: Breakup of USSR - continuity
« Reply #11 on: April 25, 2018, 06:53:49 PM »
Fixed the wrong average GDP calculation there (only displayed wrong, no effect to demand calculation), but still the CCCP average per capita GDP is no higher than ~4500 in 1990. This is because each of the states in CCCP are stored as separate countries and each of them have their own GDP and population history profile (because they later become independent).

Here are the 1980 values in 2010 dollars per each state:
Russia   8282,48
Estonia   8677,63
Latvia   7171,48
Lithuania   7370,18
Kazakhstan   4809,96
Georgia   3491,80
Azerbaijan   3338,95
Ukraine   3264,42
Belarus   2333,79
Turkmenistan   2006,78
Moldova   1918,93
Tajikistan   1591,01
Armenia   1589,63
Kyrgyzstan   846,09
Uzbekistan   804,18

As you can see there are huge differences. The system calculates the countrywide 'GDP per capita' for these "combined countries" so that the population of each state is multiplied with the GDP per capita, and then divided again with the total population to give the avg.GDP per capita for the whole union.

When a state splits from the union the system shows the state's own values, so you may expect extremely huge drop for Uzbekistan for example (4500 -> 1000). You may see the drop as sudden if you look at the value of the GDP alone but actually the regional GDP data for union states is also present in demand calculation, and the demand changes are always gradual too so it's noticeable after only some longer period of time.


(The values what CIA factbook refer, approx 9000 in 1990s, are the values of the Russian state of the CCCP union ... according to my source.)
« Last Edit: April 25, 2018, 06:58:43 PM by Sami »

Offline Tha_Ape

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Re: Breakup of USSR - continuity
« Reply #12 on: April 26, 2018, 10:26:57 AM »
Ok, that explains everything.
Thanks!
(those darn federations...)

 

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