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Author Topic: What stats to check and how do I get my ALF up?  (Read 507 times)

kmeinert

  • Former member
What stats to check and how do I get my ALF up?
« on: April 06, 2015, 06:54:28 AM »
Ok, first of all:

What stats do you check when you go and check your airline? I log on and check my routes. If any has an ALF (Average Load Factor) above 90% I raise the price with a couple of percent. Then I check the Cash flow statement to make sure I am making money....and that's it! Am I missing something? (I sense that I am...)

My second question is derived from the above: How do I get my ALF up? For example I have two routes, where one has an ALF in the 40's and the other in the 60's. I start out with prices bumped some 20-ish% down (as recommended in plenty of blogposts), the schedule is not conflicting with other airlines (I aim for having one hour since last take-off on the same route), the route image is 100% and there's no development. For years the ALF is staying basically the same. How can that be, when I have other routes where I can keep raising prices (due to high ALF)? To me it seems all other factors are equal, but I am probably missing out on something. Please help. Any assistance will be highly appreciated!

Kindest regards,
Kmeinert

Offline gazzz0x2z

  • Members
  • Posts: 4526
Re: What stats to check and how do I get my ALF up?
« Reply #1 on: April 06, 2015, 08:56:09 AM »
for your second point : what plane are you using? Flying a A148E on a 2200NM line with 150+ demand is a sure way to have a big "too small aircraft" penalty. Same for a 737-700ER on a 3000NM line with 300+ demand.

The most impressive improvement I had on previous GW3 was on the Nantes-Le Lamentin Line. 3521NM, 120 demand in 2020. Was flying a A148E with a stop in Horta. Had 20% LF. Switched to a 737MAX. LF went immediatly to 90%(but if demand had been 300+, LF would have plummeted). Right tool size for the right route size.

kmeinert

  • Former member
Re: What stats to check and how do I get my ALF up?
« Reply #2 on: April 06, 2015, 09:21:14 AM »
Alright, thanks a lot.

I have three examples. All are flown with Fokker F.27's (52 pax):

1: Three times a day, demand 210 pax, my ALF: 48,2%
2: Three times a day, demand 160 pax, my ALF: 57,6%
3: Two times a day, demand 250 pax, my ALF: 61,1%

Again: These numbers are pretty constant. I haven't been able to get them up. All RI's are 100%. What is wrong?

Thanks in advance,
kmeinert

Offline schro

  • Members
  • Posts: 4561
Re: What stats to check and how do I get my ALF up?
« Reply #3 on: April 06, 2015, 10:03:31 AM »
Do you have competition on those 3 routes, if soz how many seats of it?

Also: pro-tip - you don't have to schedule around other airlines, just yourself.

kmeinert

  • Former member
Re: What stats to check and how do I get my ALF up?
« Reply #4 on: April 06, 2015, 10:55:12 AM »
Yes

Ex. 1: 583 seats in total
Ex. 2: 322 seats in total
Ex. 3: 765 seats in total

But I find similar tough competition on other lines, where I get an ALF above 85-90%.

Could you elaborate on your protip, schro? Not quite sure I understand...

Offline knobbygb

  • Members
  • Posts: 884
Re: What stats to check and how do I get my ALF up?
« Reply #5 on: April 09, 2015, 07:57:56 AM »
There are things that you can't see, which would ideally be taken into account.  The most important are probably the prices the competition is charging and the type of seating they are using. I will assume that their RI is 100% and they are not doing anything "stupid" such as very short turnarounds or flights too close to each other - but you can check that in their flight schedules if you can be bothered.

With that assumption, I usually take the total demand, divide it by the number of daily flights offered and use this as a ballpark for how many pax. each flight will have. Then, if my flight has more than that I'm doing OK, if it has less then maybe I need to make changes. It's not quite as simple as that as this doesn't take into account aircraft size and type preferences but it gives a good ballpark idea of how well you've planned things.

So in your example 1 above, I would plan for there to be 10 or 11 flights per day in total and I would expect my F.27's to have around a 90% load factor in that case. The game isn't quite as "linear" as it used to be in that way, but this should still give you a pretty good place to start from at least.
« Last Edit: April 09, 2015, 08:11:14 AM by knobbygb »

 

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