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Author Topic: Cost Estimations  (Read 1501 times)

NIK

  • Former member
Cost Estimations
« on: March 09, 2015, 12:22:50 AM »
Hi,

Haven't played for a while and trying to give it a go again.
Is there a way of roughly estimating the route costs during the planning stage?
I am finding that there is demand for the route, it is a bit on the long side for type but still well within the aircraft's range.
But then when its operating, using the 'weekly financial estimate' on the aircraft details page, adding the costs, dividing by number of sectors and then seats, I conclude my ticket costs need to be roughly 3 to 4 times what they are, just to break even on a full load.

Does someone have a formula to work that out before the hopeless route is opened and my cash gets drained away?

Thanks
Nick

Offline schro

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Re: Cost Estimations
« Reply #1 on: March 09, 2015, 01:56:01 AM »
In a way, what you're asking for tends to just take experience of playing the game. As a general rule, flights become less profitable the longer that they are. Smaller planes are also more difficult to become profitable on than the larger ones (i.e. CRJ vs 737). Poor plane choices can also hose the best laid plans of mice and men. In general, if you've got no competition, then it is pretty easy to eyeball which routes will make money once you get used to it...

So, as a very very very rough guide (which will vary on era and competition):

Short Haul (Under 2000nm, often domestic (if US))
-Regional jets over 1000nm is nope (Though, in the RJ challenge, this is a bit different)
-Widebodies on domestic routes also a nope
-Adding on to #1, this means if you can't fill a 737/MD80/MD90/A320 series plane (meaning, 130+ seats) on a route over 1000nm, then you'll lose money
-Utilization is important to keep up - ups and downs make more money than transcons



Long Haul (over 3000-ishnm)
-Demand will need to be close to a modern widebody (i.e. a 763 will need demand in the low 200's at a minimum)
-A heavier C/F mix helps a lot - you wouldn't want to send the 763 on a route with Y only past say, 4000nm
-Don't mess with anything under 200 demand unless you've got money to burn or someone to troll

NIK

  • Former member
Re: Cost Estimations
« Reply #2 on: March 09, 2015, 05:17:54 AM »
Thanks for your help.
I can see a few points there I have wrong.
Out of interest what length would you recommend for props to not get burnt? 500ish?

Offline gazzz0x2z

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Re: Cost Estimations
« Reply #3 on: March 09, 2015, 07:53:53 AM »
I wouldn't be as strict as Schro - After all, I've built a profitable company in GW3 by systematically violating those rules - but you cannot afford to bypass those rules where there is any kind of opposition. But the rule of a thumb is : it depends. It especially depends on the fuel costs. I've made a lot of money on 2000NM routes with A148Es, but with fuel prices cuddling 1500$, those times are long gone. It's now(2027) better to replace those A148Es with 737 - even if the line only has 80 pax demand. Of course, that's still not impressive.

You also have to be careful on the airplane size. Where my A148s were shining on 80 demand lines, they became a burden when demand rose up to 100. Bypassing Scho's rules needs a lot of micromanagement.

But my own rules depend on the fact I'm playing from smaller airports. Toying with the limits is my only way to grow, while Schro plays on the biggest airports in Europe, and therefore cannot afford to fly a 737-700LR over the atlantic. He would be dead meat for its opposition. I can, as most of my lines are too small for any kind of opposition.

Side effect : the longer lines you play, the more important the consuption of fuel is important. On a 500NM line, you don't care about fuel burnt. On a 5000NM line, it's the difference between life and death.

Other Side effect : If a 500NM line is overcrowded, it is still very possibl to make money on it. On a 5000NM line, don't even dream about it(unless it's Heathrow-Bangkok with 3000 demand).

Offline Teemu

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Re: Cost Estimations
« Reply #4 on: March 09, 2015, 12:22:24 PM »

Long Haul (over 3000-ishnm)
-Demand will need to be close to a modern widebody (i.e. a 763 will need demand in the low 200's at a minimum)
-A heavier C/F mix helps a lot - you wouldn't want to send the 763 on a route with Y only past say, 4000nm
-Don't mess with anything under 200 demand unless you've got money to burn or someone to troll

I would add that the 752 is good for that range too if the demand is around 200 pax. I'm competing you at the GW2 with one 752 and you got gas hog DC10 on the route.


Offline schro

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Re: Cost Estimations
« Reply #5 on: March 09, 2015, 02:31:54 PM »
Thanks for your help.
I can see a few points there I have wrong.
Out of interest what length would you recommend for props to not get burnt? 500ish?

500 is a good limit for props once you're out of the very early era.

I wouldn't be as strict as Schro - After all, I've built a profitable company in GW3 by systematically violating those rules - but you cannot afford to bypass those rules where there is any kind of opposition. But the rule of a thumb is : it depends. It especially depends on the fuel costs. I've made a lot of money on 2000NM routes with A148Es, but with fuel prices cuddling 1500$, those times are long gone. It's now(2027) better to replace those A148Es with 737 - even if the line only has 80 pax demand. Of course, that's still not impressive.

You also have to be careful on the airplane size. Where my A148s were shining on 80 demand lines, they became a burden when demand rose up to 100. Bypassing Scho's rules needs a lot of micromanagement.

But my own rules depend on the fact I'm playing from smaller airports. Toying with the limits is my only way to grow, while Schro plays on the biggest airports in Europe, and therefore cannot afford to fly a 737-700LR over the atlantic. He would be dead meat for its opposition. I can, as most of my lines are too small for any kind of opposition.

Side effect : the longer lines you play, the more important the consuption of fuel is important. On a 500NM line, you don't care about fuel burnt. On a 5000NM line, it's the difference between life and death.

Other Side effect : If a 500NM line is overcrowded, it is still very possibl to make money on it. On a 5000NM line, don't even dream about it(unless it's Heathrow-Bangkok with 3000 demand).

I'm not one for micromanagement myself. There's certainly a system of exceptions that _can_ work to my "general rules I made up in about 5 minutes", but I'm also targeting an inexperienced player looking for guidance on quick improvements....

I would add that the 752 is good for that range too if the demand is around 200 pax. I'm competing you at the GW2 with one 752 and you got gas hog DC10 on the route.

Actually, the 752 is not a very good idea in most bases these days. My hope is that it will one day be combined into the 767 fleet group, which would open up a LOT more opportunities for it. The problem with a GW2 era route that works perfectly with a 752 is that it will grow up to about the 300 pax level by the turn of the century. Also, around that time, you'll start getting plane is too small warnings on the route, meaning you'll have to replace your whole 757 fleet with something bigger just a few years after you schedule it. The other issue with the 757 is that it will get pillaged and hosed by other narrowbodies on shorter routes, leaving it a very very very small role to play which is no good if you're keeping to just 3 fleet types in a game. Basing in the middle east or Egypt may be the only place where they will actually work well for an extended period of time.

Offline Teemu

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Re: Cost Estimations
« Reply #6 on: March 09, 2015, 02:41:00 PM »


Actually, the 752 is not a very good idea in most bases these days. My hope is that it will one day be combined into the 767 fleet group, which would open up a LOT more opportunities for it. The problem with a GW2 era route that works perfectly with a 752 is that it will grow up to about the 300 pax level by the turn of the century. Also, around that time, you'll start getting plane is too small warnings on the route, meaning you'll have to replace your whole 757 fleet with something bigger just a few years after you schedule it. The other issue with the 757 is that it will get pillaged and hosed by other narrowbodies on shorter routes, leaving it a very very very small role to play which is no good if you're keeping to just 3 fleet types in a game. Basing in the middle east or Egypt may be the only place where they will actually work well for an extended period of time.

Yeah that is true. But I got issue being based in the "worst" palce in that gameworld (NTAA). Been looking fot the 763's but the que is long one and the other routes I use the 752 won't benefit the change from 752 to 767's. But you are correct that I need to replace them with something better. Well only time will tell how I manage that.

Offline schro

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Re: Cost Estimations
« Reply #7 on: March 09, 2015, 02:48:23 PM »
Yeah that is true. But I got issue being based in the "worst" palce in that gameworld (NTAA). Been looking fot the 763's but the que is long one and the other routes I use the 752 won't benefit the change from 752 to 767's. But you are correct that I need to replace them with something better. Well only time will tell how I manage that.

I'm not familiar with NTAA demand, but I'm pretty sure it is low. If you don't get much growth on the 757 routes, they may last a while. I was thinking moreso TATL sort of flying to/from the northeast US as a common place to rush to use 757s when I wrote the above...

Offline Teemu

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Re: Cost Estimations
« Reply #8 on: March 09, 2015, 04:06:20 PM »
I'm not familiar with NTAA demand, but I'm pretty sure it is low. If you don't get much growth on the 757 routes, they may last a while. I was thinking moreso TATL sort of flying to/from the northeast US as a common place to rush to use 757s when I wrote the above...

Yeah. There might be some increase from here to the US West coast but 9/11 will give issues. NTAA-KLAX is now at ~200 pax and we both have around 30% share of pax. And my plane is making some money on the route. Not sure how your DC10's does. I know that you have multiple frames operating on different days on that route. But in the end I'm making some money and I have competition that now is making some money.

Offline schro

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Re: Cost Estimations
« Reply #9 on: March 09, 2015, 05:04:04 PM »
Yeah. There might be some increase from here to the US West coast but 9/11 will give issues. NTAA-KLAX is now at ~200 pax and we both have around 30% share of pax. And my plane is making some money on the route. Not sure how your DC10's does. I know that you have multiple frames operating on different days on that route. But in the end I'm making some money and I have competition that now is making some money.

It's doing quite poorly. Selling 3C and 100Y seats per flight on average. This is a good example of a route not to fly if you want to make money from it :-).

I'm priced at about +10% and my flight times are better than yours....

Offline Teemu

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Re: Cost Estimations
« Reply #10 on: March 09, 2015, 08:26:21 PM »
It's doing quite poorly. Selling 3C and 100Y seats per flight on average. This is a good example of a route not to fly if you want to make money from it :-).

I'm priced at about +10% and my flight times are better than yours....

Yeah you got better timing. 84Y and 4C for me at the default price. But then when you count the cots I'm making some money and you are not.

Offline gazzz0x2z

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Re: Cost Estimations
« Reply #11 on: March 10, 2015, 08:23:25 AM »
(.../...)
I'm not one for micromanagement myself. There's certainly a system of exceptions that _can_ work to my "general rules I made up in about 5 minutes", but I'm also targeting an inexperienced player looking for guidance on quick improvements....(.../...)

Indeed, and my best A148 or B737 lines in terms of benefit are the ones that fit your rules. (ah, Nantes-Algiers, 4 daily unopposed 737 flights, my cash cow...). And it needs a lot of micromanagement - I'm adjusting individual line prices on a daily basis. That's 25 pages of lines. As you must have 250 pages of lines just in Heathrow, of course you cannot afford.

Just, when settled in smaller airports like Reus(5,6M pax in 2026) or Glasgow-Prestwick(9,6M), you quickly run out of juicy lines. So linking 2200NM for A148E or 4500NM for 737-700ER is suddenly very attractive. Doesn't make a lot of money, and sure needs at least +20% in terms of pricing to be profitable with all costs included(personel). But does the job. For the RJs, it also helps flying them longer, half of the day with a red-eyes flight, the other half with small, juicy routes.

You see, Schro, you are so good that you can afford to occupy the best routes, leaving smaller fish as me just a few crappy airports to deal with. There is place for just a few biggies as you. We, the small fish, have to adapt & take the rests. With much bones and not much flesh. It's very fun, but not really the same game. You're an industrial, I'm an craftsman.

@Teemu : thanks for the tip on NTAA. I was planning to begin here for my next game, but it might be a not so good idea, finally...

NIK

  • Former member
Re: Cost Estimations
« Reply #12 on: March 12, 2015, 11:25:32 PM »
Your tips seem to be working out ok.
Out of interest, how far in the red can you get before the game world forces bankruptcy on you?

Offline schro

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Re: Cost Estimations
« Reply #13 on: March 13, 2015, 12:41:52 AM »
Yeah you got better timing. 84Y and 4C for me at the default price. But then when you count the cots I'm making some money and you are not.

My overall company profit is doing just fine, thank you. Also, given my presence in each of my bases, it tends to dissuade competition.

You see, Schro, you are so good that you can afford to occupy the best routes, leaving smaller fish as me just a few crappy airports to deal with. There is place for just a few biggies as you. We, the small fish, have to adapt & take the rests. With much bones and not much flesh. It's very fun, but not really the same game. You're an industrial, I'm an craftsman.

A good big fish doesn't leave small routes alone....

Your tips seem to be working out ok.
Out of interest, how far in the red can you get before the game world forces bankruptcy on you?

Depends on the era. You'll get anywhere from 2m to 10m in the red before you get a bankruptcy warning. When you're below that threshold, marketing and C/D checks don't get paid meaning you're pretty close to a death spiral unless you sell a few things. After the BK warning appears, you get about 7 real world days to pull out of the mess. In general, if you're not out of the hole in the first 1-2 days, then you're probably not going to recover unless you have a significant number of planes that you can sell very quickly.

If you're bouncing between red and black on your cash balance, then you can survive like that, just make incremental improvements wherever you can.

Offline Teemu

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Re: Cost Estimations
« Reply #14 on: March 13, 2015, 10:12:13 AM »
My overall company profit is doing just fine, thank you. Also, given my presence in each of my bases, it tends to dissuade competition.

Yeah I know. Was talking about that specific route. But since your daily income is about 150 times bigger than mine I know that you are doing well ;)

 

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