Fuel hedging is not gambling and if you are hedging fuel to "beat the market" you aren't doing it right.
The purpose of hedging fuel is to lock in pricing so you know what price you will be paying in the coming months. It is a management tool. If you can lock in the price at $260 for a year, then you know you will be paying $260 and can reliably spend money on new aircraft, routes, etc. knowing that you won't be paying $350 instead. Without the hedge, the level of uncertainty is increased and you have to be a little more cautious in your decision-making. Fuel could go down or it could go up, but even if it goes down you have to plan for it going up unless you are hedged.