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Author Topic: [-] Oversupply issue  (Read 580 times)

Sanabas

  • Former member
[-] Oversupply issue
« on: February 03, 2014, 06:45:42 AM »
This one isn't a case of oversupply supposedly being incorrect, it's more a case of calculating the oversupply doing annoying things. I have a feeling it's because of random demand fluctations pushing me above/below the limit, and it could be fixed by basing the oversupply not on the somewhat randomised demand for a given day, but instead on the true, unrandomised demand level.

The route in question is NC017 in gameworld 1. 84 seats supplied, and true demand appears to be in the low 40s. It was created & first flown in June 1987. No problems until Sept 17, when I received an oversupply warning. I ignored it, and then Oct 15 I get an oversupply corrected message. The route was unchanged the entire time on my end, but still managed to go from acceptable to oversupplied to acceptable again.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2014, 04:28:16 PM by sami »

Jona L.

  • Former member
Re: Oversupply issue
« Reply #1 on: February 04, 2014, 12:13:34 AM »
It is based on the actual demands, but what you SEE in the graphs is randomized by 5% usually ("staff efficiency"), also noted as "stats accuracy '95%'" in the bottom right corner.

If you refresh the page a few times, you can roughly estimate the true demands.

Sanabas

  • Former member
Re: Oversupply issue
« Reply #2 on: February 04, 2014, 12:33:28 AM »
Yes, I know how the demand graph works, thanks. That's why I said 'true demand appears to be in the low 40s.' But the demand graph showing different things has nothing to do with what I'm talking about.

All things being equal, you won't get 43 people wanting to fly every Saturday. Some weeks it'll be 40, some weeks it'll be 45. The actual (not displayed) demand for the purpose of selling tickets has some randomisng involved, a little higher or lower than the default true demand level. If that randomising pushes that week's demand down a bit, it appears it can trigger an oversupply warning. Which means that if you supply 190% of the default, true demand, which I appear to here, you can leave a route untouched and have it fluctuate between oversupplied and ok, resulting in repeated warnings and correction messages.

Offline LemonButt

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Re: Oversupply issue
« Reply #3 on: February 04, 2014, 12:33:58 AM »
I'd actually be interested in what 95% accuracy means as typically stats such as this would be given on a 95% confidence interval, which means we are 95% confident that the actual values are between a low and high limit (an interval).  The demand stats displayed stat 95% accuracy, so does that simply mean a randomness of actual demand +/- 5% or is there more to it?

Offline Sami

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Re: Oversupply issue
« Reply #4 on: February 12, 2014, 04:28:12 PM »
Lowest demand point at the time of this report was on saturday at 40 seats and you had 84 available so it's over the limit.

Sanabas

  • Former member
Re: Oversupply issue
« Reply #5 on: February 12, 2014, 04:32:12 PM »
Lowest demand point at the time of this report was on saturday at 40 seats and you had 84 available so it's over the limit.

Yep. But I was under the limit, went over the limit, and then back under the limit, without adjusting the route in any way. The first two months the route was flown, it was under the limit. I don't think the true, unrandomised demand would have dropped, so it should have been either over the limit from day 1, or not over the limit at all.

Offline Sami

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Re: [-] Oversupply issue
« Reply #6 on: February 12, 2014, 04:50:55 PM »
The demand does move up and down all the time in small scale (the actual demand)   ..especially in scenarios with historical data

 

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