Indeed, a well-necromanced goat is about the only sure-fire method of divining fuel movements : the other view is that hedging fixes the price for the term of the hedge, giving you less fluctuation in a (the?) major cost variable so you can judge overall route profitability easier. This is pretty useful for high-fuel usage routes, such as long haul. By staggering your hedges in 10% bites each month, you can cushion the effects of any spike. This does also mean you cushion any falls in price, but, as historically, fuel goes up a lot more than it goes down, in the long term, you should win.