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Author Topic: Demand modeling questions  (Read 7125 times)

Offline Andre

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  • Posts: 1090
Re: Demand modeling questions
« Reply #40 on: April 12, 2013, 01:25:41 PM »
If you boost traffic on one side, you will have to take that boost away from other relations, like all demands between small airports.I never hear a wish to set every combination that isnīt served by a real-life airline to zero. All you wish wish for is boost, especially for that part of the world you are just sitting in.
You canīt hear anything about all other markets across the world.
Sami possibly canīt control every airport timetable of the world and design demands as-is, especially because we are not playing just traffic of today. What about 1952 dates or 2020 ?
If I look at my home airport, game demands never meet actual numbers, in any age.
Why not wait for new numbers of city-based demand ? Maybe they differ a lot. And as long we are not able to build connecting traffic, we are not able to rebuild "realistic" traffic.
Since every model is based on worldwide traffic numbers, a wish for a boost should always include a tip, where other demands are too high and can be scratched, to keep overall balance.


If you boost for instance the Norway - US traffic by a factor of 3, the drop in demand to other destinations would barely be noticable. So that's not an issue whatsoever. Regarding the past and future, the traffic was there in the past too but not in Airwaysim. In 2020 it will most likely be even more. This really isn't an issue. I'm pretty certain Sami wouldn't have asked for these things and handed out Excel sheets to people, if he didn't plan on using it for his city-based demand system.

Offline TFC1

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  • Posts: 787
Re: Demand modeling questions
« Reply #41 on: April 12, 2013, 02:16:03 PM »
I'm pretty sure the traffic is there for most of these routes, but all the pax are funnelled through a major international gateway hub like JFK or ORD, which is why their demand is so much higher than an airport like Appleton or Fargo.

True. Northwest operated a daily DC-10 between OSL and MSP back in '99-01 which had a load factor of 80-85% off season. KLM experienced a decline in sold seats from OSL via AMS to MSP to such an extent that Northwest was told to terminate the route. Which goes to show how passengers prefer direct routings over connections  ;)

brique

  • Former member
Re: Demand modeling questions
« Reply #42 on: April 12, 2013, 02:47:38 PM »

Actually its NOT Just Seasonal. Maybe if you did your research you would be a bit more informed. The demand is DAILY and with more of a demand on the weekends (Friday-Sunday) for obvious reasons. And this daily demand is for over 25 destinations and its from the major hub cities on the East Coast of the U.S, Canada, the UK, France, Amsterdam, Germany and the larger market in South America. Yes there's seasonal traffic and charter but that only accounts for a small % of the Yearly traffic coming to the caribbean.

I never said it was 'just seasonal' : but your suggestion I go research is amusing when you fail to provide any data yourself, but, obviously, you must be well informed so its not required.

But here's an example for you : Sangster International (Jamaica) in 2012 had 360k pax in march, but only 180k in November : kindly inform me which is your 'daily demand' and which can be attributed to the 'small %' of seasonal traffic?



exchlbg

  • Former member
Re: Demand modeling questions
« Reply #43 on: April 12, 2013, 05:58:12 PM »
hotboi...:This game is not just the year 2013. What about traffic data of the last 60 years? You "researched" just one region of the world, what about all others? Are you ready to "research" their data (for the last 60 years), too ? Or will you leave that task gracefully to Sami ? We are not talking about this or that destination, this is all about the "big picture" and Sami already asked for specific help earlier in this thread. You are free to offer your help researching the data he was asking for.

andre....:nobody outside Norway cares about traffic numbers of Oslo, everybody around the world has his airport which he thinks is not modelled "realistically" that includes my home town. This thread is about a demand modelling SYSTEM handling world traffic in a balanced and streamlined way to keep this game playable and data base technically handable.Until now you have many options for opening routes you would never see being served in RL.I would not like to see that go.A close remake of reality is impossible for the game anyway.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2013, 06:17:04 PM by exchlbg »

SuriProf4

  • Former member
Re: Demand modeling questions
« Reply #44 on: April 12, 2013, 06:02:18 PM »
This game is not just the year 2013. What about traffic data of the last 60 years? You "researched" just one region of the world, what about all others? Are you ready to "research" their data (for the last 60 years), too ? Or will you leave that task gracefully to Sami ? We are not talking about this or that destination, this is all about the "big picture" and Sami already asked for specific help earlier in this thread. You are free to offer your help researching the data he was asking for.

i offered to do this help/research for an area of the world. but was told it was already being covered. but i think it is one thing to 'research' via wikipedia, and another if you have the actual facts/data. i am not getting on the work sami has done...i just think it would help more if accurate information was given. it does seem to be a complex model that has to be figured, so it will be interesting to see what comes about once a first view of this demand model is ready.

the whole transit pax thing would be very complicated to implement if some variables stay the same (a heavy aircraft couldnot operate from a small airport even if the demand is there from that small airport...therefore a transit thru large airport is required). and i think the whole 'seasonal' situation is up to another level of complex. it sounds that a majority of players are in the northern hemisphere which has a different 'seasonal' demand than holiday pax in the southern hemisphere throughout the year.

i just think it will be interesting what comes about with the in-progress demand model.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2013, 06:15:20 PM by SuriProf4 »

exchlbg

  • Former member
Re: Demand modeling questions
« Reply #45 on: April 12, 2013, 06:27:27 PM »
Obviously Sami has limited possibilities to accept every offered help. That also is tied to the fact that you are willing to research special relations between special parts of the world the way he is wanting to implement them. He does not need thousands of PMīs giving him traffic data of March 2013 of some remote airfield, especially because he does not plan to model demand after airport traffic, but economic and social data of countries and metro areas.As I know which region of the world you are talking about I fear it doesnīt play any distinct role whether in world economics or air traffic.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2013, 06:33:04 PM by exchlbg »

brique

  • Former member
Re: Demand modeling questions
« Reply #46 on: April 12, 2013, 06:46:02 PM »
I have to say, my own attitude is, 'why worry about demand levels?' : You can see if your desired base has demand to other airports, that should be the basis for your decisions : what aircraft you use, do you need a  pricing policy, how competitive will those routes be, and so on. Its hardly a major matter if demand between A and B is not 100% accurate according to global stats collected in some archive for the period : it would be nice if it were, but, in the end, we are playing a game in a game environment and should work with what's actually there in the game, not what 'should' be there in some perfect world.

Otherwise, I'd get really depressed as only 3 goats and a shaman turn up for my 06.00 POM-LAE flight, and no amount of telling me its 'real' is going to make me smile about it...


SuriProf4

  • Former member
Re: Demand modeling questions
« Reply #47 on: April 12, 2013, 06:56:46 PM »
I have to say, my own attitude is, 'why worry about demand levels?' : You can see if your desired base has demand to other airports, that should be the basis for your decisions : what aircraft you use, do you need a  pricing policy, how competitive will those routes be, and so on. Its hardly a major matter if demand between A and B is not 100% accurate according to global stats collected in some archive for the period : it would be nice if it were, but, in the end, we are playing a game in a game environment and should work with what's actually there in the game, not what 'should' be there in some perfect world.

Otherwise, I'd get really depressed as only 3 goats and a shaman turn up for my 06.00 POM-LAE flight, and no amount of telling me its 'real' is going to make me smile about it...



i have to agree. even though i am still learning how to play, i have to admit i would at some point like to try from my current home airport and native home airport. but that isnot until i get the metrics of playing to where i can try operating at 'small' airports.

as i stated in another thread i think the real 'issue' would be towards the pricing/staffing/etc mdel that is built into the sim. this maybe causes some discouragement from the size 4 and smaller airports to operate as base because the pax demand levels arenot 'high enough' to 'have fun' operating from those airports.

Offline dmoose42

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Re: Demand modeling questions
« Reply #48 on: April 12, 2013, 07:56:52 PM »
It depends on what you call fun. :)  You're right that you can't operate a 777 fleet from a size 3 airport, but neither do people in real life.  There are plenty of smaller airports, particularly in the Modern Times scenarios that can offer quite a challenge.  If you pick the right fleet types, you can be successful...

npercy1

  • Former member
Re: Demand modeling questions
« Reply #49 on: April 12, 2013, 10:58:17 PM »
I have an airline in MT8, I try to be a regional airline but I have noticed its very hard to operate with little competition out of the smaller but still big ( ex minneapolis, memphis, houston hobby) Becuase I dont think that the passenger demand models on the routes to regional airports in this region are accurate. Here is an example: RDU to MEM in MT8 only has estimated 100 passenger a day, but in real life RDU to memphis has 2-4 daily nonstop flights, and all are CRJ 900's. (so at at about 70% lf's and a day where there are only 2 flights, the Passengers a day is 150, which is very different from a max of 100. DSM to MSP (yet again another regional flight) is got 6 nonstop flights a day on average (CRJ900's). That is ~ 500 passengers a day. Very different from 140. So I am wondering if this is something being worked on, and being updated. Are the PAX numbers from a formula- or are the numbers real life based?

exchlbg

  • Former member
Re: Demand modeling questions
« Reply #50 on: April 12, 2013, 11:24:43 PM »
There are so many posts throughout the forums and archives that explain how demands of this game basically are calculated, that I ask you to look for that.
It really doesnīt make any sense to repeatedly tell us about any discrepency to real-life here, there are 100 000 (or more?) possible relations to tell from, where should this end?
I had a regional prop-only business out of Bob Hope and Sacramento in another game , and nearly all flights besides those to hubs wernīt existant at all in real life, and I bet itīs the same with your airport right now, but all you see are some special flights you do.
And Brique is right, this is not a simulation of world air traffic for any age, it is a game to be played with given numbers. The hard facts like airport infrastructure and flying material are pretty exact, so itīs no complete bull weīre simulating, but weak facts like demand can be discussed to nausea without any result.
RL airline traffic may tell you that some people are willing to book flights, but they donīt tell you about real demands between two points in the world ,they reflect airline decisions for whatever reasons.And in this game you are asked to make your decisions, not to copy RL concepts.
Think about Ryanair , not serving but generating demands that havenīt been there before with some dubiuos but clever concepts. Itīs not yet replicable, maybe a bit more with new system, when choice of airports to serve is more left to players.

exchlbg

  • Former member
Re: Demand modeling questions
« Reply #51 on: April 13, 2013, 01:10:52 PM »
After some time of thinking I would like to suggest something instead of turning down something else.
To add some reality overall, there should be added some more complexity to scheduling issues. Itīs not overall demand that seems a bit way off, but the very simple method to serve it. Especially SH and LH/ULH demands should be handled differently.SH demand should be split into am/pm (arrival) demands , that means only one connection per day(time) should get only half of overall demand to reflect business traveller needs, whereas LH demands above a certain distance could be changed to weekly figures where one weekly flight is sufficient to serve all weekly demand,because the longer the distance/flight time, the more flexible you feel about staying at destination before coming back.
We already have a "too small" warning for LH , there is no "too big" warning for SH, where using one widebody per day (without competition) shouldnīt get all PAX neither.
Demand columns could reflect something like this:
SH: am/pm column, or split on mo-fr,not split on sa/su   (for example 50 am/50 pm mo-fr/60 sa/70 su would make a weekly of 630 PAX)
MH: daily as is (maybe combined for sa/su)   =  (for example 100 each mo-fr/130 for sa and su combined makes a weekly 630)
LH: first/second half of week,or mo-tue/we-thu/fr-su combined demands  = (for example 200 for  mo-tu,200 for we-thu and 230 for fr-su make 630 PAX)
ULH: one weekly    =    (youīre free to serve this number with one,two or more flights of any date)

I know it sounds a bit complicated and canīt be handled with given calculation routines, not to speak of graphical demand charts changes.
But it would make traffic look more "realistic", make medium demand LH routes and some ULH routes servable (very small SH routes unservable) and maybe reduces the need of 7-day scheduling for these.
Iīm ready for some re-bashing    :-[
« Last Edit: April 13, 2013, 09:10:58 PM by exchlbg »

SuriProf4

  • Former member
Re: Demand modeling questions
« Reply #52 on: April 13, 2013, 10:17:02 PM »
You're right that you can't operate a 777 fleet from a size 3 airport, but neither do people in real life.

have to disagree on this, as there are alot of real life examples.

i read in a forum the city based demand based upon airports serving geographic areas. i could see how it can be helpful to smaller airports (ex RTM v AMS). i can think of quite a few in eu and us/canada. it seems like the sim doesnot account for this yet but it would be nice. it wouldnot give the preference to the size 5 airports and some size 4 airports.


Obviously Sami has limited possibilities to accept every offered help. That also is tied to the fact that you are willing to research special relations between special parts of the world the way he is wanting to implement them. He does not need thousands of PMīs giving him traffic data of March 2013 of some remote airfield, especially because he does not plan to model demand after airport traffic, but economic and social data of countries and metro areas.As I know which region of the world you are talking about I fear it doesnīt play any distinct role whether in world economics or air traffic.

my offer was to give whatever assistance with gathering historical and current information, since i have access to the information. from your last sentence, i would have to ask why have airports outside of europe, southeast asia, and us/canada if sami is only going to program the sim for these 3 areas? is the point of the sim to be challenged around the world and not just 3 areas?

from reading some forums it sounds that this demand modeling is coming about from people wanting to use airports outside these 3 areas as bases or fly to areas outside these bases with some 'realistic' numbers (even though this isnot 100%) possible. that is just my guess from the amount of topics on airport/city/geographic demand.

 

Offline dmoose42

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Re: Demand modeling questions
« Reply #53 on: April 13, 2013, 10:22:35 PM »
Can you please let me know what size 3 airport has daily 777 passenger service?  I would like to know.  Thanks much.

brique

  • Former member
Re: Demand modeling questions
« Reply #54 on: April 13, 2013, 10:38:10 PM »
I have an airline in MT8, I try to be a regional airline but I have noticed its very hard to operate with little competition out of the smaller but still big ( ex minneapolis, memphis, houston hobby) Becuase I dont think that the passenger demand models on the routes to regional airports in this region are accurate. Here is an example: RDU to MEM in MT8 only has estimated 100 passenger a day, but in real life RDU to memphis has 2-4 daily nonstop flights, and all are CRJ 900's. (so at at about 70% lf's and a day where there are only 2 flights, the Passengers a day is 150, which is very different from a max of 100. DSM to MSP (yet again another regional flight) is got 6 nonstop flights a day on average (CRJ900's). That is ~ 500 passengers a day. Very different from 140. So I am wondering if this is something being worked on, and being updated. Are the PAX numbers from a formula- or are the numbers real life based?

What is the date in MT#8? As I write its the end of 1999 : what is the date on the demand figures you state above as being correct? Today, I'd guess, as you describe them in the present tense : be careful not to assume then, that todays demand figures are also those of 15yrs ago...

exchlbg

  • Former member
Re: Demand modeling questions
« Reply #55 on: April 13, 2013, 10:42:04 PM »
If you could only for once forget about AMS and Suriname? Maybe Sami has worked that into his new model already,as he was asking for special cultural or whatever ties between nations over the decades, whatīs the big deal anyway?
New allocation system will give smaller airports a better chance, as long they are close to an economically dominant region as new system will focus on regions, not just airports.
So we will see new numbers. But I bet they wonīt be the numbers of April 14th 2013.Or any other day.They will be our world to play in.Like existant values are. They are good enough to have a reasonable base to play with.

SuriProf4

  • Former member
Re: Demand modeling questions
« Reply #56 on: April 13, 2013, 11:10:19 PM »
@exchlbg....i amnot only talking about that area and i amnot talking about current day. maybe if you werenot so anal on everything someone says, and be open minded on where some thoughts are coming from. i never specified an certain area, but you assume that is all i am pushing for. and you assume a whole lot from your responses to what others are saying. it seems you take everything personal that is posted about the sim in the forums. why? why do you feel you have to comment on every forum post? if you donot like what is stated, then just donot reply. very simple. if you chose to reply, then make it beneficial and helpful (as most of the forum posts are looking for). if you are the 'better' player in the sim compared to the new players (such as myself), why not give a different tone or positive response (if you chose to respone), instead of quickly repling so harsh. i donot see any stir-up over your suggestion earlier in this forum on demand model, so why go around and assume/critique/etc what others are saying. i would be willing to hear where you are coming from on that thought more, instead of responding back in the manner you have been doing towards others.

« Last Edit: April 13, 2013, 11:56:23 PM by SuriProf4 »

L1011fan

  • Former member
Re: Demand modeling questions
« Reply #57 on: April 14, 2013, 05:16:25 AM »
I have noticed that the demand from Southern California airports to SFO, specifically, as in reality, since the 60's, demand on that corridor has always been the busiest in the world. Yes, in the world. To have a demand of 60 people in the 70's, from BUR, ONT, LGB, and SAN is just not the way it was. I'm not even going to go into LAX except to say that whatever demand you put in for whatever time period should be doubled, if not tripled from Southern California to the bay area airports of SFO, SJC, and OAK. Let throw me throw in SMF for that matter. I lived in the area, flew the routes so many times I can't count for 40 years. Demand must rise on theses routes dramatically in all scenarios on these routes.  :-\

exchlbg

  • Former member
Re: Demand modeling questions
« Reply #58 on: April 14, 2013, 06:57:19 PM »
First I īd like to ask you to watch your words. Especially if you call anything I do or say "anal". I donīt call you what first comes to my mind either.
These forums are based on open discussions, and you may just leave it to me, which post I answer and which not. Within this topic it doesnīt play any role If you are an experienced or good or bad or whatever player.First topics were circling around new demand system and how to improve itīs yet not known new numbers.Sami was asking some people for help, not with real life traffic "observations" and "researches", but with data about cultural/economical connections between nations.
The thread was then hijacked by those reporting some discrepancy they see between RL and in-game numbers. And now post after post new observations ,complaints and so on.
Game demand system never claimed to produce real -life figures  in the first place, it produces numbers for a world we are playing in. And since every airline in this game is playing with the same numbers, there is no need to manually adjust those numbers to some claimed "realistic" values, on the contrary, every change you make is throwing world traffic balance over board. There are so many things different in-game and outside, that those values possibly canīt be the same (thereīs no connection system,no alliance feeder system, no subsidized flights,but there is the total freedom of connecting to whatever country you like without respecting traffic treaties.) Only few reasons in-game traffic wonīt meet RL figures ever.
This topic was already discussed over and over before.And sometimes you will just loose your temper if you read the same bull for the 100th time, even from people who should know better.
Sorry if I misjudged your researched area, but since you didnīt mention it one starts asssuming. Be destinct about facts, so nobody would have to guess.
But one thing is for sure, if Sami says, that he has informations already,it is not your task to judge about the source he used and claiming yours to be the better. How could you know?

This topic is a discussion about a game system feature (demand modelling) of past and future times. I donīt see any reason for being "helpful" to newbies here. If you donīt know what you are really talking about in a discussion because you lack  knowledge of experienced players you will have to face critical comments. Question is if you really should discuss game system topics before having insight of how everything works.If you do, it is the right of every member to comment that without being helpful.
Iīm not turning down newbies in BW forums if they have a question. Iīll turn down anybody just stating things that are not true or canīt be proved, newbie or oldie.
Itīs not my fault I have only few people that support my point of view, although they could. Maybe they got sick of it and let babbling pass by graciously. Maybe I`ll resign,too, very soon.


« Last Edit: April 14, 2013, 11:30:06 PM by exchlbg »

Jona L.

  • Former member
Re: Demand modeling questions
« Reply #59 on: April 14, 2013, 08:55:43 PM »
First I īd like to ask you to watch your words. Especially if you call anything I do or say "anal". I donīt call you what first comes to my mind either.

You do realize, that anal is not necessarily meaning the same as the German anal?! In this case it shall mean, that you shouldn't be such a nit-picker. ;)
Consulting a dictionary might help sometimes.


anyways... LOL about that post :P

 

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