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Author Topic: [ok] Test World: Pax distribution  (Read 2686 times)

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: Test World: Pax distribution
« Reply #20 on: July 06, 2012, 06:47:01 PM »
Adjusted a bit to find the proper settings. But does the 757 get too penalized now?

330 - 154
757 - 101
320 - 74


(though I understood that one issue has been too widely spread 757 usage on longhaulers.. another issue is that larger 320 variants and 757 are just too close to each others to program any meaningful formula there.)

It's looking better.  Both 757s (753 and 752) are now flying (out of C check) with the same pax count.

101 pax is good for 752, kind of low for 753.
But, on the other hand, 332 is the smallest member of its family, and 154 would be a cap for all members of its family.

As far as profitability:
A332: 61 889 USD
B753: 27 707 USD
B752: 28 934 USD
A321: 28 387 USD

B753 is holding the short end of the stick here, mainly due to the fleet concept.  A321 is just a very efficient aircraft that is doing well even at low load factors.  739ER would be doing even better...

I will play with this a little later on to look for exploits.  But here is what I am thinking:  A319 configured with some F/C seats, range of ~3000nm...  I think it would do very well with 74 pax....

Offline meiru

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Re: Test World: Pax distribution
« Reply #21 on: July 06, 2012, 06:51:30 PM »
... to program any meaningful formula there.)

 ::) ... see what I mean? ... *dum di dum* ...  :) ... sorry... I wasn't able to withstand ...

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: Test World: Pax distribution
« Reply #22 on: July 06, 2012, 07:17:42 PM »
On another note Sami, it would be helpfult to see the results on shorter routes, of how ATR does vs. say A320,

Any chance you could put some A320s on the used market, and I will schedule them against your ATRs on CDG-FRA route.  It might be a good route to test an overwhelming frequency of ATRs vs. A320, if the ATRs lose their frequency bonus vs. A320.

This has to be tested by 2 players, I am assuming ....


Offline Sami

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Re: Test World: Pax distribution
« Reply #23 on: July 06, 2012, 07:28:49 PM »
cannot affect that... but my schedules are not packed with CDG route, nothing else. standard prices, B check on Sat.

Offline Airbus101

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Re: Test World: Pax distribution
« Reply #24 on: July 06, 2012, 08:53:54 PM »
I hope there will be a facts list on what everyone learned for those of us whom couldn't get into the test world...


I see people building spread sheets and all sorts of comparison lists already

I feel like I'm missing out on a huge FREE learning curve
 :(

Offline shaolin

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Re: Test World: Pax distribution
« Reply #25 on: July 06, 2012, 09:04:32 PM »
CI at -63 and still LF 100% on most routes, though with no competition. Doesn't sound unreal?

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: Test World: Pax distribution
« Reply #26 on: July 06, 2012, 09:30:14 PM »
CI at -63 and still LF 100% on most routes, though with no competition. Doesn't sound unreal?

RI is incorporated into the calculations, but I am not sure if CI is...

Offline Sami

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Re: Test World: Pax distribution
« Reply #27 on: July 10, 2012, 09:22:06 PM »
ref: http://www.airwaysim.com/forum/index.php/topic,41408.msg224598.html#msg224598

The numbers on this example BOS route seem "sane" now still, so this report is closed.  F/C may not work properly yet, needs testing.



CI at -63 and still LF 100% on most routes, though with no competition. Doesn't sound unreal?

You really MUST read the information topic's first post before posting the feedback or bug reports..


I see people building spread sheets and all sorts of comparison lists already

This is something that is completely unnecessary since the background workings and formulas will never be public information so any excel is guesswork based on what the route sales are. Manual will also cover what is needed to know (nothing that new really).
« Last Edit: July 10, 2012, 09:27:42 PM by sami »

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: Test World: Pax distribution
« Reply #28 on: July 11, 2012, 12:19:30 AM »
ref: http://www.airwaysim.com/forum/index.php/topic,41408.msg224598.html#msg224598

The numbers on this example BOS route seem "sane" now still, so this report is closed.  F/C may not work properly yet, needs testing.

I put the results in a spreadsheet to make it easier to evaluate (and see for those not in beta).

I think the current figures do even more than I was looking for.   Originally, I was looking for small aircraft getting no frequency bonus.  Now it looks like small aircraft gets penalty for being too small.  As a result of last set of changes, we went from small narrowbodies going from Frequency bonus -> no frequency bonus -> penalty

I guess that may turn out to be a good thing.  I think we will definitely be seeing LH routes actually served by LH aircraft.

The Y part looks good on this particular set of flights.  F looks good too, since supply < demand.

C may be looking a little iffy on the 757s on surface, but it may in fact be good as well.  I will try to think about it.

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: [ok] Test World: Pax distribution
« Reply #29 on: July 11, 2012, 12:21:08 AM »
It does not look that anybody is doing any serious testing on the shorter range, seeing how the new allocation would affect say 20x ATR vs. 10xA320.  Maybe I will set up a test like this later on today...  Or if people are doing testing, they are not posting results...

Offline Pilot Oatmeal

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Re: [ok] Test World: Pax distribution
« Reply #30 on: July 11, 2012, 12:18:16 PM »
It does not look that anybody is doing any serious testing on the shorter range, seeing how the new allocation would affect say 20x ATR vs. 10xA320.  Maybe I will set up a test like this later on today...  Or if people are doing testing, they are not posting results...

I'd like to test this but there's no room in the test server, any chance we can have add more slots for people to join?

Offline Jona L.

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Re: [ok] Test World: Pax distribution
« Reply #31 on: July 12, 2012, 12:39:14 AM »
It does not look that anybody is doing any serious testing on the shorter range, seeing how the new allocation would affect say 20x ATR vs. 10xA320.  Maybe I will set up a test like this later on today...  Or if people are doing testing, they are not posting results...

Fly some ATRs over to LHR if you like (or even dare :P ) I fly 3x daily A306, and 1x daily 773 with a total supply of 1300 seats. Competitor flies DHC-8. Yet I have 100% C LFs, 0% in F (since no more demand), and an eco LF of 55% (773) or 65% (A306) both being roughly the same pax (155-170Y).

cheers,
Jona L.

Glob-Al

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Re: [ok] Test World: Pax distribution
« Reply #32 on: July 12, 2012, 11:46:16 PM »
Not quite the same but I am trying 4xATR vs 2x737 vs 1xA332 on PVG > SZX. (665nm) Demand is about 260 so each aircraft type could roughly cover demand on its own.

The result so far is that all aircraft are pulling in about the same number of pax (40-42NPR flight). Which of course means that if there were 3 competing airlines (one for each aircraft type), the ATR airline would be winning hands down. Not completely unreasonable I don't think although I guess I'd hope to see the 737 do a bit better over 665nm.

This has all been at default prices so far - gonna start changing them now and see what happens.

brique

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Re: [ok] Test World: Pax distribution
« Reply #33 on: July 13, 2012, 12:02:01 AM »
Not quite the same but I am trying 4xATR vs 2x737 vs 1xA332 on PVG > SZX. (665nm) Demand is about 260 so each aircraft type could roughly cover demand on its own.

The result so far is that all aircraft are pulling in about the same number of pax (40-42NPR flight). Which of course means that if there were 3 competing airlines (one for each aircraft type), the ATR airline would be winning hands down. Not completely unreasonable I don't think although I guess I'd hope to see the 737 do a bit better over 665nm.

This has all been at default prices so far - gonna start changing them now and see what happens.

It will be interesting to see the result when passenger comfort (seating) gets implemented, I understand its switched off in test world? I think then the 737 will go better @665nm unless the ATR's are re-configged, but then lose capacity. Also, a factor not always mentioned in the debate of small-v-large is the C/F market, which the small a/c cant service as well, if at all.

Offline Sami

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Re: [ok] Test World: Pax distribution
« Reply #34 on: July 13, 2012, 10:06:51 AM »
Quote from: Glob-Al link=topic=41433.msg224881#msg224881
The result so far is that all aircraft are pulling in about the same number of pax (40-42NPR flight).
.

this is completely correct for a domestic route of this length.

But do not that aircraft speed for example is not modelled yet there (= longer flight time, less sales).

Glob-Al

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Re: [ok] Test World: Pax distribution
« Reply #35 on: July 13, 2012, 03:01:05 PM »
Thanks both - that's interesting and seems reasonable. When seating comfort and flight time are also considered I'd hope to see the balance tip slightly (but not too much!) in favour of the larger aircraft.

In the meantime, just to check, ticket price currently is implemented as a factor, is that correct? If so, I'm a bit concerned it is not effective enough...

I dropped the prices on my A332 and B737s by 15% but it doesn't seem to have made much difference to the pax distribution: A332 has 40 pax per flight, B737 39.5 per flight and ATR 37.5 per flight. In other words if they were 3 different airlines:
A332 airline (1 flight per day) 15% market share
B737 airline (2 flights per day) 29% market share
ATR airline (4 flights per day - prices 15% higher) 56% market share

I'd definitely like to see price have a bigger effect - would the extra frequency really be so important to so many passengers that it would cancel out the advantages of 15% cheaper tickets?

I'm going to make the ticket prices on the bigger aircraft even cheaper now so we can see how that works out (provided I don't go bankrupt first - running these slightly wacky experiments is causing me to haemorrhage money!)

Glob-Al

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Re: [ok] Test World: Pax distribution
« Reply #36 on: July 14, 2012, 01:40:19 AM »
Update on my PVG > SZX experiment. With 50% price cuts on the A332 and the B737s the state of play now is:

A332 airline 55 pax x 1 flight per day = 55 pax per day = 18% market share.
B737 airline 53 pax x 2 flights per day = 106 pax per day = 35% market share.
ATR airline 36 pax x 4 flights per day = 144 pax per day = 47% market share.

So those flights with a 50% discount do now just about attract a majority of the pax. But still 47% value high frequency so much that they'll pay double the price for it...

I'm going to abandon this experiment now as I've got bankruptcy warnings! May actually switch over to SHA (from where there's far more domestic demand) and run some similar experiments from there.

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: [ok] Test World: Pax distribution
« Reply #37 on: July 14, 2012, 02:48:12 AM »
Update on my PVG > SZX experiment. With 50% price cuts on the A332 and the B737s the state of play now is:

A332 airline 55 pax x 1 flight per day = 55 pax per day = 18% market share.
B737 airline 53 pax x 2 flights per day = 106 pax per day = 35% market share.
ATR airline 36 pax x 4 flights per day = 144 pax per day = 47% market share.

So those flights with a 50% discount do now just about attract a majority of the pax. But still 47% value high frequency so much that they'll pay double the price for it...

I'm going to abandon this experiment now as I've got bankruptcy warnings! May actually switch over to SHA (from where there's far more domestic demand) and run some similar experiments from there.

Interesting findings, BTW.

It will be interesting when time of travel is enabled.  I am going to test with ATR, Q400 and E-Jet of similar size...

 

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