Anti Monopoly Bureau: Route closure warning - Oversupply ?????

[castelino009]

well not exactly bored, but now annoyed   I'm not sure what's worse...being flagged for an A380 or an ERJ ...especially considering our friendly competition

LOL, we have been good considering  we are big in that area and have kept our paths pretty much parallel. This oversupply mesages bug you especially when u wake up and sit with a cuppa trying to figure out what is really wrong.

VJC

[spiff23]

hey vfly, check your A380 demand on the outbound and inbound.  I think we are being penalized because of the bizarre demand logic for india and other emerging market countries.  I'm getting a notice too on bangalore-Zurich.  I'm the only airline on the route.  Bangalore-Zurich, I'm well under 200%.  However, becuase the return demand is 1/2 the originating demand, I'm actually over on the return route on 2 days.

So sami, before I blow a gasket, any thought as to why your demand engine is penalizing anyone running an airline in India, Egypt, etc.?  I find it very hard to believe that every day 100s of people are emigrating from these countries to Europe and America and never return back home (maybe some, but not 100s / day...I think the EU and US Congress would put a stop to it).  Some of these demand differentials are beyond ridiculous...and yet daily/weekly we figure out how to make these long-hauls work and yet now being penalized.

I'd say if you start fining/closing routes in these situations that at this point it's easier to just not pay/play as every India-Europe/North America route has this demand differential and hence neither vFly, (most likely ratz...he can comment on his own) or me, should be flying the lower demand routes to Europe or some of the high-demand routes for that matter...it would also seriously undermine any future desire to try basing an airline in an emerging market in any future game

[Sami]

The oversupply warning works just fine and is not flawed. First one should always check that you read the correct chart (= click on the globe icon in that message you got to view the supply/demand chart!). In some cases people have had accidentially two flights dep back home on the same day making a big oversupply there.

For very small routes the warning threshold was adjusted a bit already yesterday, but I will adjust that a bit further since it is only a hardcoded limit so far.


One picture example, this saturday service is oversupply (427 vs 158) and warning was received for that. That route even has other airlines on it. It cannot be really based on the total weekly average as you could put 1000 seats on saturday just to annoy someone and leave other days empty.  The baseline for the comparison is the average of the whole week's demand (added with some notable margin, so it's not 200% exactly) and it compares each flight day and segment individually.

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[Sami]

coding demand and making it explicity clear what you are doing, especially considering your route demand engine, as defined, is so vague and constantly changing.  You clearly state that is close to reality, but may be off by something like 30%.

What are you talking about? Sorry, I am confused, did you really expect that this software would be able to produce real pax demand figures from all possible route combinations in the world, for all possible years? (since there is 2000+ airports and timespan is 50+ years too)  Or what was the point of this message, as I didn't get it completely?  Mimicing real routes is not the goal here (although it does set a certain baseline with the current demand model), and in the future I am hoping to move it away from this real-world-stats based approach to completely calculated system where the players can truly build demand and hubs and so on.

I have an oversupply warning on Bangalore-Bhubeneswar

Check the return flight, 100 seats on 30 seat demand. You have some scheduling issue there since two flights dep back home on the same day, instead of sat-sun which has been your intention I believe.

[Tiberius]

The only comment I have is the same one i made in my alliance forum about these routes.  100 seat supply overseas (denver-europe)....someone could pick up this route...after all this time its me, with, yes a 777 because that's my fleet choice for routes that will make "bank" on it.  OK, yea, definitely oversupply...but i'm the only one flying it and I think the only one that will ever fly it...and I'm making profits...yes, small ones, but it works for me.  I seriously doubt someone will put a 767 on these routes.  Oh well, have to reschedule now...lol.

[castelino009]

Check the return flight, 100 seats on 30 seat demand. You have some scheduling issue there since two flights dep back home on the same day, instead of sat-sun which has been your intention I believe.

So sami, as spiff23 said, some routes have weird demand.  The following are not actual nos, i am just recreating for example and illustration purposes only,

BOM-ORD   {outbound} demand around 520 supply around 525 ( 1 x A380)

ORD-BOM {inbound} demand drops to 250 and supply 525 (1 x A380)

In these situations what do be do? leave half the A380 in ORD?


In ATB1 I had a similar issue, BOM-LAX outbound was 800 pax and inbound was 250. I submitted a bug report in the very end and you said this was a big difference and normally difference would be around 100-150, this is more than half.  

How can we send our metal 6000+nm when the demand keeps fluctuating  so much and we get all these warnings. I am not arguing here Sami, just want to know what would you do if you were in our shoes and send ur A380 just to see it come back half empty. The new system is a great step, but  you have to work on it and we shall help you (as always).

Regards
VJC

[Sami]

hmm, I though that back-forth demand change (a bug clearly if the variation is more than ~20%) was already fixed a long time ago. I have to check it again, in the meantime you can leave those routes like they are, I think it's a quick fix. Since the "competition checker" only compares to the actual demand, and it works just fine, but didn't realize this issue.


Oh, and VJ. You DO have oversupply there too: https://www.airwaysim.com/game/Routes/Planning/KORD/VABB


Edit:
Checked that route, KORD-VABB demand is about 390/d, and VABB-KORD is 490/d (so not 250 vs 525). There's a slight difference there but smaller than I thought so I believe that may be normal and "no bug" after all.

And KLAX-VOBB is 320/d and VOBB-KLAX is 300/d on average, so that's fine too.  (both of these figures are the TRUE demands, you may see them a bit differently depending on how "good" your staff is)

[MattDell]

I will adjust that a bit further since it is only a hardcoded limit so far.

So am I good on ELLX to EBLG in ATB2 now?

Also, any thoughts on it not being considered oversupply if you only fly one plane there?

[castelino009]

Oh, and VJ. You DO have oversupply there too: https://www.airwaysim.com/game/Routes/Planning/KORD/VABB

LOL , cheers Sami, thnx for the link, you helped me saved some monies But there are some routes, esp North American sectors have very weird demand. I shall sort the above said  route out.

VJC

[Sami]

But there are some routes, esp North American sectors have very weird demand.

Lemme know the route-pairs.

Also, any thoughts on it not being considered oversupply if you only fly one plane there?

Added also so that if you have only 1x day and limited seat supply (<100pax or similar), it disregards the route.

[castelino009]

Lemme know the route-pairs.

Will do will keep a eye out. But i guess N.America needs a bit stable traffic, if not high , atleast stable (both sectors) so we know what aircrafts to use on these routes.

Thanks for the quick reply, the monopoly guy is good thing you invented , LIKE IT 

VJC

[Sami]

No need to keep an eye anymore, I already adjusted it a bit, as the diff. between some locations was too high still (>25%).

[MattDell]

Added also so that if you have only 1x day and limited seat supply (<100pax or similar), it disregards the route.

Thanks, sami!! 

[powi]

I think once a day flights should not trigger the Monopoly Bureau, no mather how much oversupply they create, because the pax calculation doesn't give any advantage for doing that.

[JumboShrimp]

Added also so that if you have only 1x day and limited seat supply (<100pax or similar), it disregards the route.

That's a good addition.  1x day flight should be ignored alltogether, IMO, regardless of passenger supply and demand on the route.