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Author Topic: [-] Randomness in the demand-view of Routes  (Read 422 times)

mideg

  • Former member
[-] Randomness in the demand-view of Routes
« on: April 19, 2010, 05:19:29 AM »
I just realized that the demand for a route is different each time you watch it, representing that we cannot actually pinpoint the demand for any given route exactly, which is good.

I just thought that we have one problem here: Since the randomness changes every time I view any given routes demand, I can - assuming the randomness is equally distributed - very closely pinpoint actual demand by just viewing the demand several times.

I would like to suggest that the randomness stays the same for each time you view a routes demand, with changes only occuring in a new month or when the real demand has changed.

In one sentence: Even though you do not get the exact amount of passengers on any given route, you get the same number every time you look, except if there was a new month or something actually changed the exact demand.

(I really hope someone gets what I want to say, as I am not a natural english speaker... :-) )
« Last Edit: May 11, 2011, 02:57:07 PM by sami »

Sigma

  • Former member
Re: Randomness in the demand-view of Routes
« Reply #1 on: April 19, 2010, 05:30:55 AM »
The demand is an estimate, as indicated in the lower-right of the demand charts.  How accurate it is depends on the efficiency of your Route Strategies Department, but you can usually bet on it being +-10% or close to that.  And even that's an estimate of how many people want to fly at standard pricing given a decent RI/CI -- you can actually change that figure as well with better pricing.

The variation is usually not enough to worry about as there's no reason why you should be trying to put precisely 100% of the demand anyway .  It's certainly not a big enough deal to change the way its displayed.

mideg

  • Former member
Re: Randomness in the demand-view of Routes
« Reply #2 on: April 19, 2010, 06:22:07 AM »
True enough - still I'd like this feature to have no work-around.

But that's just my 2 cents, of course.

Sigma

  • Former member
Re: Randomness in the demand-view of Routes
« Reply #3 on: April 19, 2010, 07:01:54 AM »
True enough - still I'd like this feature to have no work-around.

But that's just my 2 cents, of course.

The point is that there's nothing to "work-around".

No one's going to check it over and over again because it'd be a waste of time.  No one's trying to find exactly what the demand number is, because trying to put precisely 100% of the demand would be a waste of time for a number of reasons.  For one, demand changes everyday, so you'd have to be really meticulous to care to put precisely the daily demand for each day.  It also changes continuously, so even if you went through the trouble to determine exactly what it is today by checking it a bunch, it can and will change as time goes on on a macro level (i.e. the entire baseline curve will move up step-wise).  Additionally, not only does your employee's estimates vary, but so does demand -- there is no "actual" demand to determine, that's why your LFs vary week-over-week, because the demand model itself is changing slightly up and down every week.  So no matter how good your employees will estimate, or how many times you look at the chart, you'll never be able to determine the "actual" demand because it will change as soon as you think you figure it out.

And, perhaps most importantly, even if you did it 100 times and figured out what the curve looks like, even that is still a very big estimate.  Because even barring the normal variances that are programmed in, demand can vary as much as an additional 50% over that number depending on your CI and pricing, so it's completely impossible to actually determine what the "true" demand really is, so you'd be wasting your time to even try.

mideg

  • Former member
Re: Randomness in the demand-view of Routes
« Reply #4 on: April 20, 2010, 08:21:13 AM »
As said, true enough.

Be it waste of time or not, I like to "sort" potential route candidates by the demand given at the time I look through route candidates. When I realized that the estimates are randomly generated anew each time I click on the button, I kind of felt that I was doing suboptimal by not using this to get more accurate estimates, though of course it is way to much work for me concerning my limited time due to RL.

And whatever you say: If there is a built-in and meant-for uncertainty and I can eliminate it by putting time and energy (= work) into it, that is a work-around by definition.

I am not arguing that this is important and it probably is not, but as said before, I (emphasize this) still feel it would be a nice to have. No one has to agree. Thanks.

 

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