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Author Topic: Is that really realistic?  (Read 949 times)

Frogiton

  • Former member
Is that really realistic?
« on: August 26, 2009, 01:19:22 AM »
I think airlines are expanding way more than they should be. For example an airline in ATB 2 has almost 400 planes. It has been 3 years. And last time I checked you don't make one billion in 3 years from scratch. For example, QANTAS has been in business for 80 years and there are already fleets in the game that are double the size. I really don't know how you can change this though. One thing I do see is that first of all used planes don't appear on a market every 5 days. This would lower humongous fleet sizes. Also another thing is that I don't think you can lease planes directly from the manufacturor. This is  why there aren't orders for 90 777's in real life, that would cost 18 billion dollars. In the game an order for 90 777's would be about 1 billion. But there are companies like ILFC that leases out planes, but these are limited. I dunno but it just doesn't seem real. I know a lot of people are going to reject this but I'm just giving my 2 cents.

Sigma

  • Former member
Re: Is that really realistic?
« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2009, 01:50:30 AM »
Quite simply airlines make WAY more, exponentially more, profit in this game than they could ever even remotely hope to achieve in the real world.

You could write a paper on the reasons why this is and whether it's "realistic" or not or whether it's "gamey" or not.  But it boils down to a few key points.

1>  First and foremost the game must be fun for sami to make money.  If you made a solid 5% margin forever, which many airlines would dream of in real life (the majority of airlines will never turn a profit and survive off subsidies of varying sorts or just dissapear when the money dries up), you'd never get anywhere in this game.  We don't have decades to wait for our fledging airline to do something, and no one wants to log on to the game for years waiting for anything new to happen like finally saving up the 6-figures necessary to begin slot negotiations at an airport and waiting 6 more months for it to happen, and waiting 2 years to save up enough money to finally buy a plane to run it.  It's the same reason why there's work in reducing aircraft queues -- 7-year queues might be 'realistic' but they sure ain't fun.

2>  The entire environment of the game is "unrealistic" at its core.  We have an entire globe of unfilled demand.  You can plop yourself down, throw a plane on a route, and start making money.  There's no competition and droves of people waiting to fly.  In real-life most every route that is profitable to be flown is already being flown.  There's no thousands upon thousands of people just sitting around waiting for someone to fly them somewhere.  If it was "realistic" you'd start off with routes with demand that was likely completely satisfied and your only option would be stealing pax from other airlines -- an extremely expensive proposition.  You'd spend your first years more than likely hemorrhaging money; which takes us to #3...

3>  We don't have capital markets in-game.  So we 'fake it' with higher margins.  In real life, your fledgling airline might be lucky to make a single-digit margin (or likely even lose large sums of money for years), but that doesn't mean you can't grow; and grow rapidly in some cases.  You would just turn to the expansive capital markets out there in the real world.  You'd go after venture capitalists, sell institutional bonds, sell stocks, and borrow sums of money that we can't even fathom borrowing in this game, billions of dollars in loans.

In the end, if the "Real World" was like our world, in which there's millions of unserved customers just sitting around and no one serving them, you can be sure that airlines would be ordering 777s in 100-lot sizes.  There would be no shortage of financial institutions or shareholders that would find the means to give them the money because the investment would be virtually a sure thing.  And the companies that got there first, when no one else was around, would have over-flowing coffers as well.


In regards to your specific point about not being able to lease from the manufacturer -- that's generally correct.  But don't think that leasing companies like ILFC are "limited" in scope.  Leasing companies, namely GECAS and ILFC, are the single-largest purchases of commercial aircraft on the planet.  Just those 2 lessors alone own somewhere well north of 2000 aircraft that are leased out around the world.   Most every major operator leases planes on large scales thesedays.  In-Game we just use leasing from the manufacturer as a stand-in for leasing from a Lessor or other financial institution.  It's really just a matter of semantics.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2009, 02:09:14 AM by Sigma »

shaun3_3

  • Former member
Re: Is that really realistic?
« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2009, 01:58:15 AM »
If we were playing this as close to the real thing then 90% of the airlines would be bankrupt surviving from the government. We would be growing 5-10 planes in a good year and facing several thousand airlines instead of 200-400. I don't know about you but I want a game that is fun but a little challenging. I like the game setup just the way it is.

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Frogiton

  • Former member
Re: Is that really realistic?
« Reply #3 on: August 26, 2009, 04:25:34 AM »
Wow Sigma, you musta put a lot of work into that  :). Anyways I understand your point very clearly, and as I was writing my topic I was thinking about that. This is only a game not an 80 year simulation. But there should be a way to slow down way overexpansion. Seriously though, 400 planes in 3 years, doesn't that seem like a little much. That should be the fleet you have near 75% of the game.

Don't get me wrong though the game is perfectly fine the way it is. I try to hide the fact that I have a fleet of 5 planes while another airline has 80 times that.  :-[ ;D
« Last Edit: August 26, 2009, 04:27:39 AM by Frogiton »

Offline swiftus27

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  • Posts: 4407
Re: Is that really realistic?
« Reply #4 on: August 28, 2009, 11:40:27 PM »
Since we cant hub, we really can't take on the competition realistically either.   

Come on, COD4 Modern Warfare allows people to jump snipe without looking down the scope.... and that's supposed to be realistic.

ICEcoldair881

  • Former member
Re: Is that really realistic?
« Reply #5 on: August 29, 2009, 02:55:18 AM »
Seriously though, 400 planes in 3 years, doesn't that seem like a little much. That should be the fleet you have near 75% of the game.

I totally agree. I started, as many people probably know, an Airline in SIN called Royal Singaporean Airlines on Feb 3rd, 1992 which was 2 days after the opening of the game time (BW). I started up right against an airline that was already based there, but I thought that it would be no problem to push them out, which I sort of was. Then an airline came into the picture about a year after me, who was still in the middle of fighting head-on with the other airline, who grew to a fleet of 28 aircraft in a matter of 6 months. I only had a fleet of about 5/6 at the time, which I thought was a bit unfair that he started AFTER I did, but still got WAAAAY further then I ever ended up going, and he is now at a fleet of 113 and 25 more on the way. THAT IS UNFAIR! How did that happen without it happening to me? I even contacted him asking him how he did that, because I was already going to ship out anyways (-$14m USD for AL value) and he never even responded. How rude. :-\

Dorito_25

  • Former member
Re: Is that really realistic?
« Reply #6 on: August 29, 2009, 07:11:04 AM »
Qantas is 90 years next year...just to make matters better ahaha.

But you don't compare that airline to Qantas, look at where Qantas is headquartered...Sydney! And has the right amount of planes for the right amount of passengers in Australia. And that airline in the game must do every route you can imagine! Everyone wants to go to London Heathrow, so they will need a lot of planes for those routes...and a lot of money.

ICEcoldair881

  • Former member
Re: Is that really realistic?
« Reply #7 on: August 29, 2009, 03:49:19 PM »
exactly, but he only started with $4m USD, like me. I'm getting bigger though, I took out almost $1m USD in loans so I could expand with another 737, and now my money is skyrocketing now that I payed it back. hopefully I'll take all of the domestic routes, and some INT SH routes as well.

dorito_25: btw, I was based in Singapore. Sydney has far less demand for routes than Singapore does. SIA flies all over the world and Qantas only flies to certian places around the world. Singapore attracts a far bigger crowd then Sydney, so I can compare Tiger X to Qantas.

Sigma

  • Former member
Re: Is that really realistic?
« Reply #8 on: August 29, 2009, 05:09:48 PM »
I totally agree. I started, as many people probably know, an Airline in SIN called Royal Singaporean Airlines on Feb 3rd, 1992 which was 2 days after the opening of the game time (BW). I started up right against an airline that was already based there, but I thought that it would be no problem to push them out, which I sort of was. Then an airline came into the picture about a year after me, who was still in the middle of fighting head-on with the other airline, who grew to a fleet of 28 aircraft in a matter of 6 months. I only had a fleet of about 5/6 at the time, which I thought was a bit unfair that he started AFTER I did, but still got WAAAAY further then I ever ended up going, and he is now at a fleet of 113 and 25 more on the way. THAT IS UNFAIR! How did that happen without it happening to me? I even contacted him asking him how he did that, because I was already going to ship out anyways (-$14m USD for AL value) and he never even responded. How rude. :-\

Just because it didn't happen to you doesn't make it "unfair".  They're just better at making money faster than you.

Your potential loan value is based off your profit margins.  The more profit you make, the exponentially more loans you can take out.  You were, as you said, in the middle of fighting with another airline which was undoubtedly hurting your profit margins.  This compounded your problems -- you were making less money and had access to less capital for expansion.  You made the strategic decision to go after this other guy before he got too big, but by doing so you stifled your own growth.  Which wouldn't have been a problem had this other guy not shown up.

This other guy I'm sure went off and did his own thing.  He either flew really long-range international routes or many short routes (often in A-B-C-B-A to make it more difficult for you to challenge him), either of which are the quick way to make high profit margins.  Rather than spending money on a new plane every possible chance, he likely waited a couple three weeks to post good profit numbers, and borrowed large sums of money at once and ordered Used planes so that they were able to take delivery of a bunch of planes all at once, put those on similar routes as the first, and repeated the process over and over.  

In this matter your airline grows, literally, exponentially.  You can get your fleet to go 1-2-4-8-16-32, etc
« Last Edit: August 29, 2009, 05:12:43 PM by Sigma »

Offline Sami

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Re: Is that really realistic?
« Reply #9 on: August 29, 2009, 05:11:29 PM »
long-range C/F has been a good start for many airlines.. As most people tend to start with full Y class planes.

 

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