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Author Topic: Oversupply warning - single flight  (Read 616 times)

Offline JumboShrimp

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Oversupply warning - single flight
« on: May 08, 2016, 09:55:41 PM »
I wonder if we could get away with the oversupply warnings for single flight to the destination.

It is not really the capacity of the aircraft that constitutes an "unfair" competition, but number of flights.  For example, replacing a 110 pax 721 with 160 pax 722 gave me warnings all over the place, but in reality, 722 is going to carry exactly the same number of pax as 721 (with the allocation system as it is implemented), if the demand is, say 65 pax.

If the route has demand of, say 65 pax, what really makes it oversupplied is if someone flies 2x80 pax, not 1x160.  Because 1x160 may be the only aircraft the airline has, while flying 2x80 means the player is going out of his way to oversupply the route, since 1x was sufficient.

If it was up to me, I would just get rid of the single flight oversupply warnings.

Offline Andre090904

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Re: Oversupply warning - single flight
« Reply #1 on: May 11, 2016, 08:09:51 PM »
Hmm, I can't really follow you here I must say. Yes, frequency matters of course. Considering your example, 2x 80 flights is a clear over-supply. But same goes for 1x 160 flight. Where's the problem? Over-supply vs. over-supply.

If the airline does not have an appropriate aircraft to fly a 65 demand route, then maybe the airline should either get such an aircraft or fly to destinations with higher demands.

I don't see why you'd want to make this rule obsolete. Flying 160 seats on a 65 demand route won't get you far anyways?

Offline ZombieSlayer

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Re: Oversupply warning - single flight
« Reply #2 on: May 11, 2016, 09:51:31 PM »
For years there was no oversupply when a single flight was operated and I agree it would be good to go back to that. There is really no competitive advantage to flying a 300 seat plane on a 50 seat route....if competing with an "appropriate" 50 seater, both will get 25 passengers. Guess who makes money? There are legitimate reasons to fly such a route with a large plane, for example to fill out a 7 day schedule. It would just make life easier...
Co-Founder Elite Worldwide Alliance
CEO PacAir
Designated "Tier 1 Opponent"

Offline Andre090904

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Re: Oversupply warning - single flight
« Reply #3 on: May 11, 2016, 11:57:48 PM »
I don't see the advantage? If you want to fill your schedule, just do it? You won't make money anyways with a 300 seater as you said - be it with or without penalty.

I don't see any advantage of removing this "feature". But there is a huge disadvantage for smaller/regional airlines when some big player comes along and steals the passengers on those scarce "big" routes with 50 demand...

Offline ZombieSlayer

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Re: Oversupply warning - single flight
« Reply #4 on: May 12, 2016, 12:36:15 AM »
Ok, that was an extreme example. How about more realistic examples? 9/11....oversupply warnings everywhere. 75% of them are single daily flight routes. No oversupply on routes with 1 flight = far less headaches. Marginal routes. It's 1978, I want to open a route which has demand of 50 seats. This route will develop to a 100+ seat route over the course of the game, I can fly it profitably now, why not allow a 119 seat DC-9-51 fly it penalty free?
Co-Founder Elite Worldwide Alliance
CEO PacAir
Designated "Tier 1 Opponent"

Offline Andre090904

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Re: Oversupply warning - single flight
« Reply #5 on: May 12, 2016, 01:21:08 AM »
I get your last point. The thing is that we have to pretend to not know the future. It's 1978. Demand is 50 now. We don't know if it will will be 100 or 25 in 20 years - theoretically. It's Cold War after all and things might get serious. ;)

What I mean: Just because we know that the demand will be bigger later on, this does not mean that we can already pretend the demand is given now. You can schedule a DC9 without any problems. Just block seats. Yes, it takes some clicks to remove them later on, I know. But it works.

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: Oversupply warning - single flight
« Reply #6 on: May 12, 2016, 01:23:52 AM »
Hmm, I can't really follow you here I must say. Yes, frequency matters of course. Considering your example, 2x 80 flights is a clear over-supply. But same goes for 1x 160 flight. Where's the problem? Over-supply vs. over-supply.

Yes, but in first case 2x80, you are taking more passengers from competitors, some might say in a malicious way.
In the 2nd case you are not taking any passengers from anyone.

If the airline does not have an appropriate aircraft to fly a 65 demand route, then maybe the airline should either get such an aircraft or fly to destinations with higher demands.

Block seats feature takes care of this. but this feature is just a huge PITA to use, if you have 7 day scheduling.

I don't see why you'd want to make this rule obsolete.

Just ask what are the pros and cons:

pros: nothing

cons: forces the player to do a lot of work to work around it, for no benefit


Offline gazzz0x2z

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Re: Oversupply warning - single flight
« Reply #7 on: May 12, 2016, 09:16:30 AM »
Additional thing : with the upcoming city-based demand, it might be interesting to serve a route with zero demand, trying to get the demand up(Prestwick-Biggin Hill comes to mind). You're bound to begin in oversupply.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2016, 08:05:08 AM by gazzz0x2z »

Offline Andre090904

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Re: Oversupply warning - single flight
« Reply #8 on: May 12, 2016, 05:40:17 PM »
That's the first valid point I see here. Then again, Sami might just take into consideration the "potential demand" between 2 "catchment areas" as a foundation of the "over-supply-warning". This way you wouldn't get any warning at all given that you use an appropriate aircraft with respect to the potential demand.

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: Oversupply warning - single flight
« Reply #9 on: May 20, 2016, 09:14:27 AM »
The bottom line is, there is zero benefit game wise.  The single flight will just not carry more than its fair share of pax, no matter how big the aircraft is.

The downside is that it creates a ton of useless work with blocking seats, unblocking seats, fine-tuning the number of blocked seats.

What makes it worse is that usually, the routes that tend to be oversupply are thin routes that have no C/F demand.  But the aircraft may have C/F seats.  There is no automatic upgrades, these C/F seats are being counted as contributing to oversupply, they cannot be blocked, so it creates a narrow range as far as how many seats to block.

The systems seems to have a fluctuation in demand that can throw 100s of routes into oversupply with slight change in global demand.  I just ended up with 18 x 7 = 126 routes to fix, and these were just fine days ago...

Offline gazzz0x2z

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Re: Oversupply warning - single flight
« Reply #10 on: May 20, 2016, 09:27:47 AM »
Well, I'm only a recent player, so I didn't witness what happened BEFORE.

With my current financial power in GW3, I could pretty well completely oversupply the routes my smallest opponent in Kansas City, and kill him. With the limit, I know it's not even useful to try.

The question is : did it happen? If it was a common form of bullying, then I accept the rule. If not..... But it makes sense only at the second plane. The first plane, is just a single link. And the biggest plane you put, the more you punish yourself, instead of your target.

Offline JumboShrimp

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Re: Oversupply warning - single flight
« Reply #11 on: May 20, 2016, 09:45:23 AM »
Well, I'm only a recent player, so I didn't witness what happened BEFORE.

With my current financial power in GW3, I could pretty well completely oversupply the routes my smallest opponent in Kansas City, and kill him. With the limit, I know it's not even useful to try.

You can try to kill someone by flying, say 3 x 50 pax aircraft.  If the opponent is flying 1 flight, you will take 75% of the demand, and he will be left with 25%.  If the route has demand of 50 pax, and you are supplying 3x as much with 3 flights, it is, in a sense, bullying.

But with a single flight, it does not matter if it is 50 pax, 100 pax or 150 pax, I will carry 50% of the demand.  So there is not anti-competitive behavior at play whatsoever.

The question is : did it happen? If it was a common form of bullying, then I accept the rule. If not..... But it makes sense only at the second plane. The first plane, is just a single link. And the biggest plane you put, the more you punish yourself, instead of your target.

Exactly, it does not affect a "target", if there is a competing airline.  Even less so, if I am the only airline on the route.

Yet, the system keeps generating these "oversupply" warnings.

So to add to my original Feature Request

- Do not generate oversupply warnings for destinations that have a only single flight
- Do not generate oversupply warnings for destinations where the airline is the only airline on the route


Offline schro

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Re: Oversupply warning - single flight
« Reply #12 on: May 20, 2016, 11:25:42 AM »
- Do not generate oversupply warnings for destinations where the airline is the only airline on the route
200%+ oversupply on a route would discourage any rational competitor from trying to fly that route...

Offline gazzz0x2z

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Re: Oversupply warning - single flight
« Reply #13 on: May 20, 2016, 11:59:43 AM »
200%+ oversupply on a route would discourage any rational competitor from trying to fly that route...

Not if it's a single flight. Hey, imagine London City. An A318 serves a small nearby destination with 40 demand(so in oversupply), just to fill a hole in the planning(a great classic, like my near-empty B737 between Detroit & Kalamazoo). It's perfectly rational to land a Fairchild Metro there. And, IMHO, noone cheats or bullies there. The A318 owner still makes a little money instead of keeping his plane idle. The Fairchild owner opens a reasonably profitable route.

If there are 2 flights or more, OTOH, yes, it's dissuasion. If I land 3 ERJ135 flights on the same route, I'm still in oversupply, and even a Fairchild Metro is tough to land there with any hopes of making any money.

Offline schro

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Re: Oversupply warning - single flight
« Reply #14 on: May 20, 2016, 05:33:34 PM »
Not if it's a single flight. Hey, imagine London City. An A318 serves a small nearby destination with 40 demand(so in oversupply), just to fill a hole in the planning(a great classic, like my near-empty B737 between Detroit & Kalamazoo). It's perfectly rational to land a Fairchild Metro there. And, IMHO, noone cheats or bullies there. The A318 owner still makes a little money instead of keeping his plane idle. The Fairchild owner opens a reasonably profitable route.

If there are 2 flights or more, OTOH, yes, it's dissuasion. If I land 3 ERJ135 flights on the same route, I'm still in oversupply, and even a Fairchild Metro is tough to land there with any hopes of making any money.

A less experienced player (such as the one that the oversupply monitoring is intended to protect) will just see that the route is so far oversupplied that they should not consider competing.

Offline FlyingFast

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Re: Oversupply warning - single flight
« Reply #15 on: June 02, 2016, 05:26:08 PM »
I have also an oversupply warning: gw1 Vhhk - Rpvm. Route shows a demand of 170, im flying with 100?

Offline wildavidson

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Re: Oversupply warning - single flight
« Reply #16 on: June 02, 2016, 06:41:26 PM »
I have also an oversupply warning: gw1 Vhhk - Rpvm. Route shows a demand of 170, im flying with 100?
Your warning is because return demand is only 34. Im not familiar with the airport codes but when I saw your base was HK, I already knew which route it would be.

Offline FlyingFast

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Re: Oversupply warning - single flight
« Reply #17 on: June 02, 2016, 07:05:11 PM »
Omg, thank u ;) means rly from Vhhk to Rpvm 170 and return only 46? Wow...thats amazing...

 

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