So, 11/09 did strike, and from my 500 routes, 1 did go into oversupply. That's Faro-Tangiers, that' I'm covering with a 50-seater, and potential seems to have slipped under 25. OK; seats blocked. That line is just a filler to keep my airplane flying, anyways. It drives me to 2 conclusions, though.
(1)11/09 is not as tough as it should. I lost some LF on my transatlantic flights, but it's far from a trauma. IRL, it WAS a trauma. And just a little bit elsewhere.
(2)does the oversupply penalty make any sense for one single flight? I mean, if someone else opens a line there, it doesn't matter wether I fly a 50-seater, or a 126-seater. The difference would be from the second flight. If I was flying 2 flights there, with 30 seats each, I WOULD make a killing move to the opposition. That would be rightfully forbidden. But for a single flight?