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Author Topic: 11th September & route oversupply  (Read 1462 times)

Offline gazzz0x2z

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11th September & route oversupply
« on: June 03, 2015, 07:26:08 AM »
So, 11/09 did strike, and from my 500 routes, 1 did go into oversupply. That's Faro-Tangiers, that' I'm covering with a 50-seater, and potential seems to have slipped under 25. OK; seats blocked. That line is just a filler to keep my airplane flying, anyways. It drives me to 2 conclusions, though.

(1)11/09 is not as tough as it should. I lost some LF on my transatlantic flights, but it's far from a trauma. IRL, it WAS a trauma. And just a little bit elsewhere.

(2)does the oversupply penalty make any sense for one single flight? I mean, if someone else opens a line there, it doesn't matter wether I fly a 50-seater, or a 126-seater. The difference would be from the second flight. If I was flying 2 flights there, with 30 seats each, I WOULD make a killing move to the opposition. That would be rightfully forbidden. But for a single flight?

Offline ChuckPerry

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Re: 11th September & route oversupply
« Reply #1 on: June 03, 2015, 09:15:26 PM »
Starting to see some post 911 effects kick in now but this is the middle of October already?  They have this modeled completely backwards.. It wasn't a gradual drop in loads and then a slow build up...... it was a immediate plunge in loads and a gradual build back up to pre-911 levels???? And to top that, it's not even mentioned ANYWHERE... i mean when a taxiway closes at some remote airport we get a bulletin under "World News" and then the entire United States airspace shuts down for 3 days and it's not even mentioned??? 
« Last Edit: June 03, 2015, 09:27:42 PM by ChuckPerry »

Offline Air Azure [President and CEO]

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Re: 11th September & route oversupply
« Reply #2 on: June 03, 2015, 09:31:48 PM »
9/11 was both, the end and the beginning of a chapter in aviation. Not everything was good before it, but after 9/11 managing an airline was even more challenging. Not all Airlines managed to recover. Some imediately dissapeared (Swissair lost its last chance to recover without external help because the intended sale of an owned company was no longer possible. Grounding followed just 3 weeks after 9/11). Some only survived with extensive cost cutting measures. Some survived initially but dissapeared in future crisis or mergers because they were weakened by 9/11.

Don't get me wrong. The game is and should be based on real events like oil price peaks, major wars and 9/11. But you are paying to play. The game is intended to enjoy it. Are you so keen on simulating the real consequences of that day? I am sure many of you could say goodbye to your Airline then.  :P


Offline Sami

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Re: 11th September & route oversupply
« Reply #3 on: June 03, 2015, 09:46:00 PM »
911 is not an "event" in the sense of the other random world events (news, demand changes etc).

It's currently only modelled in the global passenger travel demand factor (based on actual real world statistics), and due to the way the demand levels are calculated gradually throughout the month some of the effects can already be seen before it actually happened in real life.

Offline BobTheCactus

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Re: 11th September & route oversupply
« Reply #4 on: June 04, 2015, 12:16:43 AM »
911 is not an "event" in the sense of the other random world events (news, demand changes etc).

It's currently only modelled in the global passenger travel demand factor (based on actual real world statistics), and due to the way the demand levels are calculated gradually throughout the month some of the effects can already be seen before it actually happened in real life.

I'd suggest that for future gameworlds, it should be both. In addition to the change in global passenger travel demand factor, there should also be an "event" that results in airspace shut down for a few days and drastically reduced demand for a month or two.
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Offline ChuckPerry

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Re: 11th September & route oversupply
« Reply #5 on: June 04, 2015, 12:48:30 AM »
I agree with Bob... I made the mistake of calling AirwaySim a game a few years back and I was corrected rather matter-of-factly by one of the higher ups that AirwaySim isn't a game... it's a SIMULATION...  Okay, well if it's a simulation...and we're going to include real world events,  then lets try and get them as accurate as possible... or either create an 'advanced game world' (we already have a beginners world that is easier to survive in than a normal game world) where EVERYTHING is simulated as accurately as possible so guys who just want to play a 'game' can stay in a normal game world and guys that want a realistic simulation have another option..I'm talking about things like 911 modeled like it actually happened, no slot restrictions for US Airports that phased them out years ago (that would be everywhere but DCA, EWR,JFK, and LGA I think), not canceling a flight to LAX that left 6 hours ago and has enough fuel to hold for 2 hours and then divert to ONT because of LAX weather, no curfews for airports that got rid of them 15 years ago (quote from Toronto CYYZ website "Toronto Pearson is open 24/7/365. Our night operations are a mix of cargo and passenger services.", realistic passenger demand for busy periods like the week before Christmas and the 3 days before and after Thanksgiving in the US when demand for every flight is close to  100 percent, ect .I'd play!
« Last Edit: June 04, 2015, 03:26:15 AM by ChuckPerry »

Offline BobTheCactus

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Re: 11th September & route oversupply
« Reply #6 on: June 04, 2015, 03:26:48 AM »
Quote
realistic passenger demand for busy periods like the week before Christmas and the 3 days before and after  Thanksgiving, ect

I agree on this one too. "events" should be created for major events like Christmas, Thanksgiving, Independence Day (would vary per country), etc.

However, some of the other complaints don't make as much sense:
no slot restrictions for US Airports that phased them out years ago (that would be everywhere but DCA, EWR,JFK, and LGA I think),
The slots at other airports serve the function of modeling airport capacity. If it weren't for slots, there could be 100 flights departing at 8:05AM from Boston, and there simply aren't enough gates, passenger facilities, and runways to make that plausible. While the slot system isn't perfect, it's certainly more realistic than no slot system.


not canceling a flight to LAX that left 6 hours ago and has enough fuel to hold for 2 hours and then divert to ONT because of LAX weather,
The game is a simulation, but one that is reliant on statistical modeling. It isn't sensible to think about it on a per-flight basis, but rather the overall outcome is a simulation.


no curfews for airports that got rid of them 15 years ago,
If there is such an airport, a bug report should be filed.
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Offline ChuckPerry

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Re: 11th September & route oversupply
« Reply #8 on: June 04, 2015, 04:13:00 AM »
"It isn't sensible to think about it on a per-flight basis, but rather the overall outcome is a simulation." then don't cancel flight's on a per-flight basis... realistically, you can't cancel a "per flight" that left JFK 5 hours ago enroute to LAX when an hour before arrival a thunderstorm develops over the airport... Realistically the flight holds for as much holding fuel time that it pre-planned then it diverts to ONT or LGB and busses the passengers to LAX.. It doesn't cancel 5 hours before take off because there MIGHT be weather at LAX at arrival time.. unless it's a major winter storm which is highly unlikely....Weather cancellations are very rare in this day and age with CAT IIIC approaches and autoland systems unless it's a major east coast event... I can remember ONCE in the last year that United pre-cancelled one of my  flights because of a forecast winter storm in the northeast and only because the FAA requested all airlines cut arrivals by 50 percent to LGA on that particular day so we cancelled about half our flights from ORD to LGA.. That would be a realistic cancelation of a flight.. A "runway is closed because aircraft landed gears up" when the airport has 2 other functional runways would NOT be a realistic reason for canceling...or even delaying a flight
« Last Edit: June 04, 2015, 04:36:28 AM by ChuckPerry »

Offline ChuckPerry

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Re: 11th September & route oversupply
« Reply #9 on: June 04, 2015, 04:30:42 AM »
"The slots at other airports serve the function of modeling airport capacity. If it weren't for slots, there could be 100 flights departing at 8:05AM from Boston, and there simply aren't enough gates, passenger facilities, and runways to make that plausible. While the slot system isn't perfect, it's certainly more realistic than no slot system." Well I hate to break the news to you but Boston has no slot system... and it's pretty realistic..and it works pretty smoothly day in and day out.....If 100 airlines scheduled departures from Boston at 8:05 about 80 percent would encounter delays and NONE of them would turn a profit.. Shouldn't take them too long to figure out that you have to stagger flights throughout the day ...everyone not depart at once in order to have max demand ... It's all part of the learning curve.. Peoples Express tried it and learned the hard way that a flight from EWR to DCA wasn't needed every 5 minutes....
« Last Edit: June 04, 2015, 04:34:11 AM by ChuckPerry »

Offline ChuckPerry

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Re: 11th September & route oversupply
« Reply #10 on: June 04, 2015, 04:59:06 AM »
Case in point...this flight leaves Orlando at 1930 local (16:30) Burbank time... It's a 5.5 hour flight... Now what kind of weather could exist at KBUR 6 hours before departure time that would cause a complete flight cancellation because of weather? That's not the way dispatch operates... If the destination weather at arrival time is forecast to be at or above minimums you go.. period... If not, your go anyway, shoot the approach, if you don't get in you hold for a period of time, shoot the approach again... still don't get in, fly to your alternate and land... bus the pax to the intended destination... flight completed.. NOT Cancelled!  Now That's realistic!
« Last Edit: June 04, 2015, 05:05:47 AM by ChuckPerry »

Offline Frederik

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Re: 11th September & route oversupply
« Reply #11 on: June 04, 2015, 06:20:17 AM »
I would like to support Chuckperry's suggestion of an "advanced game world" where everything is simulated as accurately as possible and "gameplay" limitations (aircraft too small, stopover penalties. etc) are done away with.
Yes it would segment the "players" between those who like to play and those who like to simulate but I think AirwaySim is now mature enough for this
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Offline gazzz0x2z

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Re: 11th September & route oversupply
« Reply #12 on: June 04, 2015, 09:47:27 AM »
Well I hate to break the news to you but Boston has no slot system... and it's pretty realistic..and it works pretty smoothly day in and day out.....If 100 airlines scheduled departures from Boston at 8:05 about 80 percent would encounter delays and NONE of them would turn a profit.. Shouldn't take them too long to figure out that you have to stagger flights throughout the day ...everyone not depart at once in order to have max demand ... It's all part of the learning curve.. Peoples Express tried it and learned the hard way that a flight from EWR to DCA wasn't needed every 5 minutes....

Please allow me to respectfully disagree. A game, or even a simulation, needs abstractions. If you don't abstract, you fly the steel yourself. Most of us don't, as we are not wealthy enough. So we play/simulate.

Slots are an abstraction there. Thight in Heathrow, loose in most US airports. They are not perfect. But there is a limit to what can be done. IMHO they do the job rather well. And avoid a few cheats : I can already imagine a player decided to kill its opposition to spam Pilatus flights at its competitor standard departure time to kill him. Instead, a loose slot system with frequent additions allow to simulate this : you can't spam 150 flights at 08h05. It's just tougher than IRL - you can not even try. But it's much better than nothing.

Nearly each airport has its own system, you know. You just cannot ask for each of them to be programmed in-depth. AirwaySim is already relatively realistic, but there are limits to what can be reasonably done.

Offline Sami

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Re: 11th September & route oversupply
« Reply #13 on: June 04, 2015, 10:47:00 AM »
I'm all in for modelling all olympics, wars and such events (this way they can be made optional at least, some worlds with them, some without). The event system supports them .. But the task of collecting a comprehensive worldwide data over the course of 70 or so years is rather huge (and dull), and that's why the real events haven't been included so far (if ever?).

Offline ChuckPerry

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Re: 11th September & route oversupply
« Reply #14 on: June 04, 2015, 11:59:38 AM »
That's a fair compromise... I think

Offline ChuckPerry

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Re: 11th September & route oversupply
« Reply #15 on: June 04, 2015, 12:06:51 PM »
 I can already imagine a player decided to kill its opposition to spam Pilatus flights at its competitor standard departure time to kill him. ....I do see your point...however,  would this even be economically feasible? I mean a slot cost's the same for a pilatus as it does for a A-380...right?  If you bought 100 slots at say 150K per slot, would you EVER recoup that initial cost flying a pilatus with 9 seats a couple of hundred miles?  If you could, it would take the rest of the game :)
 
« Last Edit: June 04, 2015, 12:13:36 PM by ChuckPerry »

Offline jamie.s

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Re: 11th September & route oversupply
« Reply #16 on: June 04, 2015, 12:37:28 PM »
I'm all in for modelling all olympics, wars and such events (this way they can be made optional at least, some worlds with them, some without). The event system supports them .. But the task of collecting a comprehensive worldwide data over the course of 70 or so years is rather huge (and dull), and that's why the real events haven't been included so far (if ever?).

what if a few world events were added to each new game world without letting us know which ones (just advise 5 events have been programmed in this game world) for an element of surprise. makes the task of collecting/entering not so time consuming/dull, and at some point down the road all events are in the game.

Offline ChuckPerry

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Re: 11th September & route oversupply
« Reply #17 on: June 05, 2015, 02:14:25 PM »
what if a few world events were added to each new game world without letting us know which ones ..... That would work great for some events but events like the week before Christmas is always going to be the week before Christmas... and the increase in Pax demand for summer travel is always going to be in the summer..

 

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